Evaluating the Cost of Failure Risk: A Case Study of the Kang-Wei-Kou Stream Diversion Project
1
Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
2
Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
3
High School, Kaohsiung American School, Kaohsiung 813, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors share the responsibility for the first authorship in the respective fields.
Academic Editor: Giuseppe Pezzinga
Water 2021, 13(20), 2881; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202881
Received: 11 August 2021
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Revised: 9 October 2021
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Accepted: 11 October 2021
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Published: 14 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
For water resource engineering projects, some potential risks that are unclear and difficult to investigate are the most crucial problem for engineers. This study presents a unique case of unknown risks, the Kang-Wei-Kou (KWK) Diversion project, which collapsed due to an unexpected hydraulic jump resulting from uneven regional rainfall. We used HEC-RAS incorporating Monte Carlo simulations for analyzing the potential risks to the original design of the KWK Diversion, concerning boundary conditions. An extreme value type I distribution was selected as the form of probability density function (PDF) to upstream discharge, whereas a normal distribution was selected as the form of PDF to downstream water depth, as boundary conditions. Applying the Monte Carlo method, the analysis revealed that the probability of failure was 7.5%, which was non-negligible and should have been considered in the design plan. This case study indicates that overlooking downstream conditions can lead a major facility to fail, and a stochastic analysis could be a way to find out potential risks. We also applied the cost–benefit analysis to review whether the design plans were appropriately estimated with careful risk based consideration.
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Keywords:
risk management; Monte Carlo simulations; stochastic analysis; hydraulic failure; cost–benefit analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style
Liang, C.-Y.; Wang, Y.-H.; You, G.J.-Y.; Chen, P.-C.; Lo, E. Evaluating the Cost of Failure Risk: A Case Study of the Kang-Wei-Kou Stream Diversion Project. Water 2021, 13, 2881. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202881
AMA Style
Liang C-Y, Wang Y-H, You GJ-Y, Chen P-C, Lo E. Evaluating the Cost of Failure Risk: A Case Study of the Kang-Wei-Kou Stream Diversion Project. Water. 2021; 13(20):2881. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202881
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiang, Chung-Yuan, Yuan-Heng Wang, Gene J.-Y. You, Po-Chun Chen, and Emilie Lo. 2021. "Evaluating the Cost of Failure Risk: A Case Study of the Kang-Wei-Kou Stream Diversion Project" Water 13, no. 20: 2881. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202881
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