Next Article in Journal
Anomaly Detection Using a Sliding Window Technique and Data Imputation with Machine Learning for Hydrological Time Series
Previous Article in Journal
Rainwater Use for Vertical Greenery Systems: Development of a Conceptual Model for a Better Understanding of Processes and Influencing Factors
Article

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods

1
College of Environnent Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
2
College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Bahram Gharabaghi
Water 2021, 13(13), 1861; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861
Received: 13 June 2021 / Revised: 1 July 2021 / Accepted: 2 July 2021 / Published: 3 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
We selected Tai Lake in China as the research area, and based on the Eco-lab model, we parameterized seven main external input conditions: discharge, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, wind speed, elevation, and temperature. We combined the LHS uncertainty analysis method and the Morris sensitivity analysis method to study the relationship between water quality and input conditions. The results showed that (1) the external input conditions had an uncertain impact on water quality. Among them, the uncertainties in total nitrogen concentration (TN) and total phosphorus concentration (TP) were mainly reflected in the lake entrance area, and the uncertainties of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) were mainly reflected in the lake center area. (2) The external input conditions had different sensitivities to different water layers. The bottom layer was most clearly and stably affected by input conditions. The TN and TP of the three different water layers were closely related to the flux into the lake, with average sensitivities of 83% and 78%, respectively. DO was mainly related to temperature and water elevation, with the bottom layer affected by temperatures as high as 98%. Chl-a was affected by all input factors except nitrogen and was most affected by wind speed, with an average of about 34%. Therefore, the accuracy of external input conditions can be effectively improved according to specific goals, reducing the uncertainty impact of the external input conditions of the model, and the model can provide a scientific reference for the determination of the mid- to long-term governance plan for Tai Lake in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: Tai Lake; uncertainty analysis; sensitivity analysis; LHS; Morris Tai Lake; uncertainty analysis; sensitivity analysis; LHS; Morris
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Pang, M.; Xu, R.; Hu, Z.; Wang, J.; Wang, Y. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods. Water 2021, 13, 1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861

AMA Style

Pang M, Xu R, Hu Z, Wang J, Wang Y. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods. Water. 2021; 13(13):1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pang, Min, Ruichen Xu, Zhibing Hu, Jianjian Wang, and Ying Wang. 2021. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Input Conditions in a Large Shallow Lake Based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Morris Methods" Water 13, no. 13: 1861. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131861

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop