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Article

Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty

1
Department of Hydrotechnical Engineering, Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest, 020396 Bucharest, Romania
2
Roua Soft SRL, 040271 Bucharest, Romania
3
Department of Mathematics, Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest, 020396 Bucharest, Romania
4
Centre of Macroeconomic Modelling, National Institute of Economic Research “Costin C. Kiritescu”, Romanian Academy, 050711 Bucharest, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Chang Huang
Water 2021, 13(11), 1601; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111601
Received: 7 May 2021 / Revised: 3 June 2021 / Accepted: 4 June 2021 / Published: 6 June 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
The Design Flood (DF) concept is an essential tool in designing hydraulic works, defining reservoir operation programs, and identifying reliable flood hazard maps. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for deriving a Design Flood hydrograph considering the epistemic uncertainty. Several appropriately identified statistical distributions allow for the acceptable approximation of the frequent values of maximum discharges or flood volumes, and display a significant spread for their medium/low Probabilities of Exceedance (PE). The referred scattering, as a consequence of epistemic uncertainty, defines an area of uncertainty for both recorded data and extrapolated values. In considering the upper and lower values of the uncertainty intervals as limits for maximum discharges and flood volumes, and by further combining them compatibly, a set of DFs as completely defined hydrographs with different shapes result for each PE. The herein proposed procedure defines both uni-modal and multi-modal DFs. Subsequently, such DFs help water managers in examining and establishing tailored approaches for a variety of input hydrographs, which might be typically generated in river basins. View Full-Text
Keywords: annual maximum series; peak over threshold; uncertainty interval; flood parameters; compactness coefficient; flood shape annual maximum series; peak over threshold; uncertainty interval; flood parameters; compactness coefficient; flood shape
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MDPI and ACS Style

Drobot, R.; Draghia, A.F.; Ciuiu, D.; Trandafir, R. Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty. Water 2021, 13, 1601. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111601

AMA Style

Drobot R, Draghia AF, Ciuiu D, Trandafir R. Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty. Water. 2021; 13(11):1601. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111601

Chicago/Turabian Style

Drobot, Radu, Aurelian F. Draghia, Daniel Ciuiu, and Romică Trandafir. 2021. "Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty" Water 13, no. 11: 1601. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111601

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