The CO2 emissions drivers of post-communist economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Background. The CO2 emissions became a key environmental contaminant which is responsible for climate change in general and global warming in particular. Two geographical groups of countries that previously belonged to the former bloc of socialist countries are used for the estimations of CO2 emissions drivers of post-communist economies. The research covers such Eastern European countries as Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russian Federation, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Ukrainian territory as treated by international law and such Central Asian states as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the period 1996-2018. The main goal of the research is to identify common drivers that determine carbon dioxide emissions in selected states. To control for the time fixed affects (like EU membership) random effect model was used for the analysis of panel data set. Results. It is found that energy efficiency has a negative influence on per capita CO2 emissions and an increase in GDP by 100 USD per 1 ton of oil decreases per capita CO2 emissions from 17 to 64 kg per capita. That is the more energy efficient the economy becomes, the less CO2 emissions per capita it produces. Unlike energy efficiency, an increase in GDP per capita by 1000 USD increases CO2 emissions by 260 kilograms per capita, and the richer the economy becomes, the more CO2 emissions per capita it generates. The increase in life expectancy by one year lead on average to increase in CO2 emissions per capita 200 to 370 kilograms per capita, with average values of 260 kilograms per capita. It was found that energy consumption per capita is a factor that positively adds to the CO2 emissions per capita. Oil prices, and foreign direct investment came as statistically insignificant factors. progress in digital economy (Mobile cellular subscriptions) on p. c. CO 2 emissions; 3) The ambiguous impact from FDI as well as Oil prices, EU energy policy access, on per capita CO 2 emissions. Contrary to other views, our study shows the insignificant influence of these factors on CO 2 emissions due to their ambiguous consequences.

increase in CO2 emissions per capita 200 to 370 kilograms per capita, with average values of 260 kilograms per capita. It was found that energy consumption per capita is a factor that positively adds to the CO2 emissions per capita. Oil prices, and foreign direct investment came as statistically insignificant factors.
Conclusions. Among the main policy reconditions are the promotion of energy efficiency policy in accordance with EU policies and programs that stimulate a reduction in energy consumption and consequently CO2 emissions per capita. The other measure is the promotion of less energy-intensive service sector instead of building up an industrial sector characterized by high energy and carbon intensity.

Background
Environmental aspects of economic growth and development of national economies are closely intertwined with economic and social problems. All of the above-mentioned problems can be addressed using the framework of sustainable development (SD). The SD concept has received significant attention during last 40 years and is now recognized by the world leading countries as a means to reach harmonious co-existence of human society and natural systems (Report 1987). The SD concept involves analysis of environmental performance in all key processes of international and national development. It turns out that the combustion of fossil fuels for energy production is the largest contemporary source of environmental pollution. It produces carbon dioxide CO 2, water, and energy. Problems of rational energy use have been given considerable attention by politicians and scientists in different countries in the context of sustainable development. Over the past decades, many researchers focused on studying the range of factors that influence CO 2 emissions. Climate change mitigation is gradually gaining momentum in the global economy. However, to ensure that environmental projects are realized with maximum efficiency, it is necessary to clarify the nature, directions, and strength of certain impacts from CO 2 emissions.
Despite a significant number of scientific studies devoted to the study CO 2  This study focuses on the main drivers of Carbone dioxide emissions using a panel of 10 postcommunist states in Eastern Europe as well as Central Asia during 1996-2018. A particular feature of research is analysis of three different geographical groups of countries (as defined by the UN (Standard Country 1999)) which belonged to the former bloc of socialist countries. These groups include countries of Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russian Federation, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Ukrainian territory as treated by international law ) and Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan). Over our study period, some of the analysed states have made great progress in terms of environmental sustainability through reduction of CO 2 emissions per capita (for example, Slovak Republic) or just preserved their positions (like Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, Uzbekistan). The other states like Kazakhstan, Russian Federation were not very successful in the reduction of their CO 2 emissions over our study period. The contribution of research is the key drivers identification that influenced CO 2 p.c. emissions in the countries mentioned above as well as the formulation of policy recommendations for efficient energy use and environmental improvements. To achieve comparability of results, we have chosen the 1996-2018 period. The chosen period is also characterized by data availability provided by the World Bank and EBRD.
The main hypotheses tested in this study can be specified as follows: CO 2 emissions in post-communist countries depend on economic progress, which means a better economic achievements is related to higher p. c. levels of CO 2 emissions; an increase in natural gas and crude oil prices improve energy efficiency and therefore reduce c. CO 2 emissions; foreign direct investment has an ambiguous influence: a) if foreign direct investment in post-communist countries is associated with the so-called "pollution haven industries", then such investment increases the level of pollution and per capita CO 2 emissions levels; b) if foreign direct investment is associated with financial or service sphere, then such investment decreases CO 2 emissions per capita; energy efficiency improvements are negatively correlated with per capita levels of CO 2 emissions indicators; higher shares of the urban population and population growth are correlated with higher rates of CO 2 c. emissions since per capita energy usage in cities is higher than in rural areas; institutional changes such related to EU accession increase energy efficiency and reduce per capita levels of CO 2 emissions; The rest of the paper has such structure. Section 2 critically reviews recent literature with regard to the existing factors that influence CO 2 emissions in national economies. Section 3 presents the methodological contribution for our analysis and describes data sources. Section 4 discusses results of our empirical estimation. Section 5 summarizes our findings and policy implications.

Literature Review
Sustainable development goals achievements as proclaimed in Agenda 21 (United Nations 1992) involve a systematic reduction of the carbon intensity of national economies. The last includes measures on rationalizing energy consumption, declining fossil fuels utilization, switching to renewable energy, activating macro-and microeconomic mechanisms of CO 2 reduction. A basic measure for assessing the degree of national economies decarbonization is CO 2 Where:

Research Results And Discussion
Using our random effect model, we have obtained the following results (Table 2) Countries with larger forest area (percentage of territory) tend to have smaller CO 2 emissions per capita. The last is rather policy appealing results, since countries with smaller forest area (percentage of territory) don't have reasonable instruments to compensate the CO2 emissions.
Energy consumption (toe) per capita is a factor that positively adds to the CO 2 emissions per capita, and in a group of selected economics one additional ton of energy consumption in terms oil equivalent lead to the 3 tons increase in carbon dioxide.
It is appeared to be that structure of the economy has a significant influence on carbon dioxide Results in Table 2 show a insignificant influence of gas and oil prices on CO 2 p.c. emissions. This outcome can be explained that world energy prices did not have any influence on selected countries To sum up, the obtained results support the majority of hypotheses concerning the influence of various factors on CO 2 emissions in pre-selected post-communist countries. Among confirmed hypotheses are: 1) The positive impact from GDP p.c., share of industry (including construction) (% of GDP), life expectancy and population growth on per capita CO 2 emissions; 2) Negative impact from energy efficiency, share of agriculture, forestry, fishing (% of GDP), progress in digital economy (Mobile cellular subscriptions) on p. c. CO 2 emissions; 3) The ambiguous impact from FDI as well as Oil prices, EU energy policy access, on per capita CO 2 emissions. Contrary to other views, our study shows the insignificant influence of these factors on CO 2 emissions due to their ambiguous consequences.

Conclusions
This paper considers the key drivers of p.c. CO 2 emissions for the panel of 10 post-communist countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Significant findings of our study can be summarized as follows: 1.
Economic growth, increase in Energy consumption per capita, and population growth are the main determinants that positively affect per capita CO 2 These outcomes are quite logical because economic development requires additional resources as well as primary energy. Since fossil fuels are primary energy resources for selected countries, their use in the production of various goods and services leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions..

2.
Energy efficiency; share of Agriculture and forestry; share of Exports of goods and services; progress in digital economy (Mobile cellular subscriptions) appear to be significant factors for decarbonizing in selected countries. Positive changes in these determinants lead to a reduction in CO 2 pollution due to a decrease in energy use through energy-efficient innovations, development of less energy intensive service sector, and relevant national energy efficiency programs. years, we expect an increase in energy efficiency with a reduction in CO 2 emissions. In this regard, state policy in the energy sector in these countries should include the formation of higher prices for fossil fuels due to the adverse impact of their use on the environment as well as the introduction of preferential policies for renewable energy to ensure a smooth transition to a green economy with lower CO 2 emissions.
The policy recommendations requires further research to identify optimal policy instruments and to assess their effectiveness for all post-communist countries concerning their national specifics.