Analysis of Tourist Systems Predictive Models Applied to Growing Sun and Beach Tourist Destination

: This study aims to present a new diagnosis model of Sun and beach destinations, we analyzed a set of explanatory theories about the tourism system, because current models do not reﬂect the real dynamics of an emerging tourist destination. We create a new predictive model so it served us to be used as a diagnostic method for the tourism system. Ancon district is a coastal town of Peru, it is the second-largest and oldest of Metropolitan Lima district. The study analyzed all tourist attractions and local resources including reserved zone Lomas de Anc ó n, with 10,962 hectares. It used a qualitative method and its design is grounded theory and phenomenological. The research covers the period from May 2018 to March 2019, where it was possible to appreciate the high tourist demand and wild ﬂora and fauna of the Lomas de Anc ó n in its two seasons: winter season (2018) and summer 2019 (dry season). The study concludes that the new analysis model allows us identifying and understanding the dynamic and potential of sun and beach tourist destinations in the growth phase. The Anc ó n district has resources and attractions that would allow it to develop new tourist products and diversify the local tourist offer.


Introduction
From a global approach, the World Tourism Organization [1] mentions that the tourist activity is considered a source of development for the nations; its main contributions to the economies of the world are 1.4 billion tourist arrivals, 6% in global average growth of the sector, connectivity, and openness. This motivates to take government measures to ensure and strengthen such growth, further knowing that tourism will grow owing to the needs of demand, responsible management of tourist destinations, conservation, and preservation of tourist resources. According to HOSTELTUR [2], in Latin America there are three large groups with greater tendency to grow: travelers over the age of 50, selfemployed workers (without employers), and single women, they require that destinations comply with infrastructure for web connection, quality, and typology of lodging, as well as all the complementary quality services.
Numerous studies of sun and beach destinations due to their natural and scenic characteristics, are still valued by tourists [3] and confirm the need to know if tourist destinations can support and consent the tourist flow through the opinions of local residents and businessmen to analyze tourist dynamics, this will allow local sustainable development [4,5].
We can see that the tourist flow-both receptive and domestic-is growing, and even the sun and beach destinations-as we saw before-are crowded in high percentage. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose the conditions of the touristic offer, the environment, the local community, and authorities at all government levels (Tourism Secretariat, 2002, as cited in Covarrubias) [24].
Sun and beach destinations are still attractive to the world, however, what we must consider is the tendency of tourists to be more friendly to the environment, to seek experiences with local people, the quality of service; to be recognized as a destination far removed from mass tourism, but with quality of experience [25], more important than the number of tourists is the flow of visits to each local attraction, stay and spending capacity, since an external consumer pays more than a local one and provides a recreation benefit for the local offer (Sewell and Rostron, as cited in Wilkinson [26]), as the number of arrivals may increase, but these indicators may decrease, putting at risk the tourist activity in the destination [6]. Regarding natural and cultural tourism resources are the main reason for tourist journeys and also, they are generators of the tourism development potential of a territory [27], even all cultural heritage that has potential as an alternative for development can be transformed into a tourist resource by local tourist managers [28].
To analyze community participation and its dynamics of interaction in a destination, we rely on the social exchange theory, according to which a person seeks social approval and recognition so that their judgments, behaviors, and beliefs are reinforced in the group [29], besides, it analyzes the attitude, identity, and behavior, as well as the support received from the society linked to tourism [30]. Although the local population is aware of the importance of tourism, it must be heard and participate in the decision-making, whatever the destination visit season [31], since they are the ones who are aware of the problem and could help to formulate strategies for improvement within a local development plan concluded, led by the municipal management and maintaining a constant negotiating climate [32].
To ensure the suitable use of national heritage is a responsibility of the state at all levels and the parties involved; both are responsible for channeling, distributing, and proposing policies and standards conducive to the sustainability of heritage management [33], in addition, both management and destination demand coordination to manage resources, tourism services, brand, image, and strategic alliances [34]. According to Kantola et al. [35], the intensity of support to municipal and state government in planning supply of tourist services and local conditioning is going to be higher during the high season, since it is where the local population and entrepreneurs maintain most interest; as for tourists, their participation would be low as their priority is the enjoyment of the destination.
Considered as equipment and facilities the set of establishments that provides services to the tourist, such as motels, hostels, restaurants, cafeterias, travel and tourism agencies, sports fields, and similar, are very important to provide a quality experience [11]. Concerning the infrastructure, we have the basic services: health, housing, roads, and others related to basic public needs [36].
For equipment and tourist facilities in a territory, it is necessary to conduct a study on its location, user profile, their impact on the process, and its final use; the delay time for both implementing and using time of service, setting, decoration, and its utility [37]. To address the development planning of infrastructure or equipment in marine areas, we must consider the environmental impact of space and marine landscape [38].
The dynamics of the tourist system can be explained under different models or theories in the social sciences, environmental, and even physical as the model of inertia, the theory of gravity, general system theory, traffic movement theory, among others [39][40][41][42][43]. Below, there are some representative models for our study.
The general systems theory represents the behavior and interaction of the subject with their environment, so the subject learns, adapts, and evolves according to the change [40]. Bertalanffy [44] mentions that biological and social phenomena can be explained from systems, a system being a set of elements that interact with each other. The interaction from the relation of variables in a territory allows us to recognize how a system manifests itself. For a tourist destination, Baggio [45] points out some characteristics: (a) The nonprobabilistic cannot be predicted, even knowing the behavior of the subject; (b) there will always be feedback (positive or negative) of actions within the system; (c) distributed nature, given that there are actions or functions that cannot be specified, but are a product of the interaction.
It is necessary to study the system in a comprehensive manner with all the elements involved, the wholeness principle, since all members are part of a larger system [46], and the cause and effect principle, where a stimulus in some component of the system will affect at least to some other element. In this sense, the actors involved as a whole are: the tourist, the local population, the public and private service providers, tourism resources, infrastructure, and the territory.
García [47], in his theory of complex systems, considers the system as a part of the reality framed in the physical, biological, social, economic, and political environment, whose components are interdefinable, without observable limits (only geographical), whose elements represent subsystems that interact with each other.
The subsystems as an integral part of the system components are in constant change and learning through interaction, so that the cycle of activity system has no end, since, even though its members to interact quickly or slowly, to do so or not, discarded, or adhered, there will always be movement, impact and influence, depending on the complexity and breadth of the system [48]. It is necessary to consider the relationship between space and time to avoid the disorder of these factors during the interaction in the subsystems [49]; there are patterns for this that help measure or maintain order, concerning tourism, it is considered: visiting seasons, transport, intensity of demand concentration, and others depending on the type of system.
The social exchange theory investigates the social behavior under a clear theme, during a prolonged period, and in a delimited environment. The exchange theory considers in its analysis the changing environment of the subject. Homans, as cited in Emerson [50], expresses three basic propositions about social behavior: when someone receives more rewards for an action, most likely the individual will redo it; when the individual has been rewarded for a past action; and when the individual receives the same or a similar stimulus, the individual will more likely repeat the action; and the more recent a person has received a reward, less valuable a new one is for that person. Subsequently, it includes two additional propositions: the value proposal, where the person will perform an action if it considers it to be very valuable and the proposal of rationality, where the person will execute an action if they have high probability of success. The theory explains the rewards (mentioned above), the costs involved in the evaluation of the benefit of interpersonal communication (punishments and energy invested), and physical or symbolic resources transmitted in social interaction [51], as a way of understanding the attitudes of residents as a product of this general assessment that they make about all local tourist activity, comparing the costs and benefits generated [52].

Materials and Methods
The approach is qualitative, the research design is based on grounded theory and is phenomenological, following the process of abstraction, codification, categorization, and triangulation. The categories identified as a consequence of the field study were: type of demand, conditions of tourist resources, equipment and facilities, infrastructure, superstructure, and finally the role of the community; likewise, it has the saturation of information criterion. The research covers from May 2018 to January 2019, where the tourist demand (summer 2019) and the dry season of Lomas de Ancón (winter 2018) were appreciated and compared. To define our tourist system of this study, we evaluated various theoretical proposals (See annexes, Table 1), to finally select Molina [11] because of the fact the author considers as relevant aspect the community role, in addition, the components of the tourist system are part of the objectives in this study. A semi-structured interview was used; it is taken as a guide to the elements of the tourist system. A group of 34 people was interviewed, which consisted of tourism entrepreneurs, municipality representatives, and key people. (see annexes). The following were considered as promoters of tourism development: local tourism management, SER-NANP (national service of protected natural areas) management, representatives of artisan associations, mototaxi, Anconeteros a Pedal association, and restaurant owners.
Likewise, the observation guide was used as an instrument for each element of the tourist system, where it was evaluated: current conditions, access, visiting hours, potential visitors inside and outside, etc. This instrument was adapted from Ricaurte [53]. Further, the observation guide and photographic and documentary record were used, first, to analyze the contrast between dry summer season and the wet winter season in Lomas de Ancón (2018-2019), in addition to a set of photographs of the flora and fauna that make it a natural tourist resource with potential to counteract the seasonality of the sun and beach tourist destination. Second, to demonstrate the conditions of each element of the tourism system. To appreciate the entire photographic record, a blog was designed and divided into study categories (see it in supplementary materials, at the end).
The total tourist resources evaluated were 11, these are: Ancón necropolis, Ancón islands, Ricardo Palma house, Lomas de Ancón, San Pedro church, Main square workshop, site museum, Ancón beach, train station, Casona José Balta, and finally the dock. It was evidenced that 8 elements were in good condition for tourism development. However, the Ancón necropolis was diagnosed in terrible condition because of the evidence of desecration and garbage problems and use as a dump and dock in regular conditions because of the unhealthy sale of food and poor infrastructure conditions for tourist use.
The diagnosis of tourist services providers evaluates infrastructure, capacity, human resources, and logistical support on the basis of the stipulations of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism [54], and published nationwide [55]. To set the current conditions of the accommodation and food services, it was observed capacity, type of infrastructure according to its class and category, complementary services, location, operation hours (restaurant), and quality-price ratio. (See annexes).
Likewise, eight tourist system models and their main contributions were analyzed: model of Boullón [36], Molina [11], Mill & Morrison as cited in Dredge & John [14], Miossec [56], Martín [57], Page [58], Bertalanffy [44], OMT as cited in Sancho [59]. See their contributions and more details: Table 2 shows a synthetic set of models analyzed, each one with its fundamentals components and the differences founded in each model. All the model selection was because they were related with a systemic explanation of the phenomena study.  -It focuses his proposal on five "rings" that explain the development of a destination based on the parallel development of: local tourism products, tourist flow and infrastructure. It divides the destination into 4 stages of development.
First ring: Neighboring countries, high flow of tourists or hikers, main transport: land. Second ring: Countries with a high tourist flow because they are consolidated countries (strong tropism), greater use of planes. Third ring: countries with strong tropism due to trend, land, and air are the most used means of transport.
Fourth ring: small percentage and volume of visits, planes are almost the only means of transport, the travel experience is different compared with other experiences.
-Phases of the tourist destination: Pre-tourist phase (Phase 0), the unsteady manifestation of tourism, vague perception of space, the first tourist station emerges, with little management, low use of the territory, little interest, once the first station or destination (Phase 1) showed that tourism is viable, more stations and infrastructures arise, the local basic supply and visits increase, part of the space is recognized (phase 2), the organization emerges, where each station is organized with tourist products and competition between them, segmenting the supply(phase 3), then saturation occurs, the hierarchical pyramid of destinations is consolidated, the infrastructure, in general, has made the tourist detract from the "original" value of the destination, the traditional is not attractive anymore, only the tourist activity itself, many tourists escape in search of new spaces. (Phase 4). Tourist flows.

Page (2015) Destination Management Model
As external factors of the destination: -It takes the organization, control, and leadership planning processes for external agents and the frameworks or contexts of the destination are considered as part of the main focus of individual businesses.
External business context. Tourist. The leisure society. Consumer trends. Then he proposes three frames or contexts of destination: The destination itself. The public sector (within the destination). Tour operators, travel agents, business groups, associated services, transportation, tourist attractions, and accommodation (within the destination). -It describes each element based on its role in tourism activity and the importance it represents for tourism demand.
Notes: Some of the analyzed models present graphs that represent the interaction dynamics of a tourist system. For the present study, each element of the model and its contributions were extracted.

Results
The synthesis of the type of demand analysis, the Ancón tourism resources conditions, the equipment and facilities current conditions, infrastructure, superstructure, and the role of the community are codified and analyzed abstracting the information of each component of the system in summary tables, containing categories, subcategories, and codes (See annexes). Below, there are some excerpts from the interviews analyzed.
The Ancón district, located in the province of Lima, features a variety of natural tourism resources, cultural and historical sites, among them: Lomas de Ancón, Ancón beach, Necropolis of Ancón, San Pedro Church, old houses, among others, which are required to be valued and retrieve them [60]; this will increase the inhabitants identity [61]. Regarding the supply of services, Ancón has restaurants, lodgings, crafts stores, etc., that are part of the set of tourism experiences. In the Ancón case (sun and beach destination), it must be analyzed by a diagnosis that is inserted in a local master plan and address the seasonality and territorial organization [62][63][64] [66], desecration (known in Peru as "huaqueos"), and little presence of the National Institute of Culture (INC). In terms of natural resources, the Lomas de Ancón stands out; the Ministry of Environment [65] declared it as a reserved area, with an extension of 10,962 hectares, to protect its geography, flora and fauna, promote research, recreation, tourism, and education to the local population. The tourism resources studied were: Necropolis of Ancón, Lomas de Ancón, Ancón beach, Ricardo Palma's old house, San Pedro Church, Talleri main square, site museum, the railway station, José Balta's old house, and Ancón pier. The Ancón district, located in the province of Lima, features a variety of natural tourism resources, cultural and historical sites, among them: Lomas de Ancón, Ancón beach, Necropolis of Ancón, San Pedro Church, old houses, among others, which are required to be valued and retrieve them [60]; this will increase the inhabitants identity [61]. Regarding the supply of services, Ancón has restaurants, lodgings, crafts stores, etc., that are part of the set of tourism experiences. In the Ancón case (sun and beach destination), it must be analyzed by a diagnosis that is inserted in a local master plan and address the seasonality and territorial organization [62][63][64] [66], desecration (known in Peru as "huaqueos"), and little presence of the National Institute of Culture (INC). In terms of natural resources, the Lomas de Ancón stands out; the Ministry of Environment [65] declared it as a reserved area, with an extension of 10,962 hectares, to protect its geography, flora and fauna, promote research, recreation, tourism, and education to the local population. The tourism resources studied were: Necropolis of Ancón, Lomas de Ancón, Ancón beach, Ricardo Palma's old house, San Pedro Church, Talleri main square, site museum, the railway station, José Balta's old house, and Ancón pier. Figure 1 below, shows a map with the location of some Ancón tourism resources:

Type of Demand in the District of Ancón
The demand in Ancón are families, couples, and groups of friends (Lima northern area), their main reason for visit is the enjoyment of sun and beach (January to March). Likewise, Lenin Romero Ramirez, municipal tourism promoter of the Sport and Tourism Education Department emphasizes the following: "The activities that the visitors practice are swimming, kayaking, surfing, visiting the site museum of Ancón, sport fishing and mansions…".
Carlos Marigorda Lazo, owner of Las Terrazas de Ancón Restaurant, commented: "The majority of tourists who come do national tourism; they are people from close districts such as Los Olivos, Puente Piedra, Comas…".

Type of Demand in the District of Ancón
The demand in Ancón are families, couples, and groups of friends (Lima northern area), their main reason for visit is the enjoyment of sun and beach (January to March). Likewise, Lenin Romero Ramirez, municipal tourism promoter of the Sport and Tourism Education Department emphasizes the following: "The activities that the visitors practice are swimming, kayaking, surfing, visiting the site museum of Ancón, sport fishing and mansions . . . ".
Carlos Marigorda Lazo, owner of Las Terrazas de Ancón Restaurant, commented: "The majority of tourists who come do national tourism; they are people from close districts such as Los Olivos, Puente Piedra, Comas . . . ". Table 3 present the principal results identified about the type of demand in the Ancon district, especially during the summer season.

The Current State of Ancón Tourism Resources
Luis Sanchez Vargas, municipal tourism promoter, mentions on tourist resources: "The necropolis is not accessible due to its state of conservation; people are unconscious, because they dump garbage . . . It is not for tourist visits, only for researches . . . SERNANP's permission is required since it corresponds to an area protected by the state." Sanchez indicates that Lomas de Ancón and the Necropolis are difficult to access, therefore, excluded from tourism; there are only visits from researchers and students. July Cunza Sifuentes of the Asociación de Anconeteros a Pedal says: "The Lomas de Ancón are visited during winter for their greenery stage and are not yet part of the local tourist offers since the hills during summer season (sun and beach tourism) are in dry season and, during winter, they manifest all their greenery." The summer season in Peru, according to the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru-SENAMHI [67] is from 21 December to 20 March and winter is from 21 June to 22 September. The interviewees are unaware of the Lomas de Ancón potential as a tourist attraction. Table 4 shows the current conditions researched in the Ancón district. We identified that Ancon present elements to develop different types of tourist and, not only sun and beach activities.  We share the principal set of figures in Figure 2 and tables according to the research on the tourist destination, we show part of the photo galery: Notes: You can visit the specially designed blog with the detailed photographic record of each analyzed tourist resource.
We share the principal set of figures in Figure 2 and tables according to the research on the tourist destination, we show part of the photo galery:

Conditions of the Equipment and Facilities
The equipment and facilities are in development. Lenin Romero Ramirez, tourism promoter of Sport and Tourism Education Department, regarding the lodgings, mentions: "The problem is that there are many, but uncategorized, so they do not provide an optimal service and are very expensive; the average price ranges from 80 to 90 per night during summer season." Ancón has marine restaurants, known as "cevicherías" in Peru, and an association of them; these sell their products without a correct food handling training. Patricia Fernández, owner of the Restaurant "Pepe Cangrejo" mentions the following: "The "cevicherías" prepare their meals in very bad conditions because I know that they do not have water, which is a big problem, in addition, their kitchens are dirty and smell bad." The conditions of the "cevicherías" are a constant problem; those responsible for it should provide quality products and services. Concerning complementary services, there are few banks, although there are retail stores that work as bank agencies. During summer, public restrooms collapse, there are no tourist guides to provide information about the district. Hernán López Junegra, president of the Motor-tricycle Taxi Drivers' Association expresses that: "Quite apart from having the tourist booth, it is not enough because that booth is abandoned; I have not seen anyone; there should be more information booths, but at key points."

Conditions of the Equipment and Facilities
The equipment and facilities are in development. Lenin Romero Ramirez, tourism promoter of Sport and Tourism Education Department, regarding the lodgings, mentions: "The problem is that there are many, but uncategorized, so they do not provide an optimal service and are very expensive; the average price ranges from 80 to 90 per night during summer season." Ancón has marine restaurants, known as "cevicherías" in Peru, and an association of them; these sell their products without a correct food handling training. Patricia Fernández, owner of the Restaurant "Pepe Cangrejo" mentions the following: "The "cevicherías" prepare their meals in very bad conditions because I know that they do not have water, which is a big problem, in addition, their kitchens are dirty and smell bad." The conditions of the "cevicherías" are a constant problem; those responsible for it should provide quality products and services. Concerning complementary services, there are few banks, although there are retail stores that work as bank agencies. During summer, public restrooms collapse, there are no tourist guides to provide information about the district. Hernán López Junegra, president of the Motor-tricycle Taxi Drivers' Association expresses that: "Quite apart from having the tourist booth, it is not enough because that booth is abandoned; I have not seen anyone; there should be more information booths, but at key points." Concerning the tourist facilities, the Ancón pier is in good condition, although there are cleaning problems and lack of safety. Rony Vasquez, president of the Boat Trip Association mentions: "There are a lot of crime, adolescents, and young people until late at night, robbing those who walk around the area, since the municipality surveillance is not there at that time. The Table 5 evidences the condictions or equipment and facilities . . .

Current State of the Ancón District-Infrastructure
As for the basic infrastructure in the district, it is necessary to implement facilities and upgrade the existing ones. There are problems of drinking water distribution and sewerage services in district adjacent areas, the electric light supply is stable.
The accessibility to the district is not adequate, Jose Reyes Cornelia, President of the Association of Cevicherías indicates: "There is a lack of signage saying what places you can visit and how to get to them. When someone comes to Ancón gets lost due to the chaos and the number of visitors.
There are no precise locations." There are no tourist signs and routes that lead to places of tourist-recreational or cultural interest. Road signs are scarce because of their age. They show cracks, fissures, and some parts with holes and deteriorated speed reducers.
During summer season, public and private transport companies raise their rates because of the high demand of visitors in the beach; chaos and insecurity increase, and the quality of service decreases. This is a reality nationwide in Peru, especially in sun and beach destinations.
Rony Vasquez, President of the Boat Trip Association of Ancón says: "People complain, but bus collectors don't know how to treat people and simply ignore you or answer rudely. On the other hand, they don't leave you at your bus stop . . . ." It is known that the means of transport (informal or not) take advantage of the high demand of visitors during summer; the cost is twice the standard rate and they treat the visitor as an object. Concerning the health service in Ancón, it presents some serious problems, as mentioned by Ramirez, promoter of the Tourism Department, who expresses: "It is unfortunate that there have arisen 15 emergencies from drowning in the year, with cases of death; others are always directed to the First Aid Post, but the service is terrible and slow".
Ramirez details that the health center in Ancón lacks medical equipment and trained human resources, since there are emergencies that, if not well treated, could cause death to the vacationer. This has been corroborated by the observation of the field in the district.
As for the communication network, Ancón has an optimal signal quality of mobile phone companies although with few public telephones for an emergency case. Concerning cleaning services, there are piles of garbage in the district boundaries, lack of public cleaning, waste collection, and treatment. The Table 6 evidence the conditions about the infrastructure identifying a set of subcategories, codes and current conditions.

Ancón District Superstructure
The superstructure analysis allowed to know how is the relationship between the state and the private sector mainly. In an interview with Fausto Rolando Malarin Gambini, Manager of Economic and Social Development of the Ancón Municipality, he mentioned: "We have agreements and alliances, the inventory of tourist resources was made with César Vallejo University and the MINCETUR, and we also coordinated with companies related to tourism . . . " The interviewee says that these alliances serve to carry out tourist activities, but not tourism projects; these would be executed with the support of private investment.
Likewise, regarding the rules for the protection of tourist resources and public areas, these are not respected, Marigorda Lazo, owner of the Las Terrazas Restaurant said: "It is forbidden to enter with food and drinks, but this is not respected since a lot of people come during summer season; they pollute, hence when winter comes, the beaches are dirty . . . " The role of the community in the tourism management and the acceptance of their responsibility as local managers allows them to generate synergy and contribute to the development of tourism. In Ancón, the participation of the population is minimal, due to the lack of knowledge, interest or education in tourism issues, although they recognize the economic benefit that visitors bring them in high season. Aldo Espinoza, Executive Chef of "La Quinta 615" Restaurant states: "Several times we have tried to bring together the owners or managers of the restaurant groups, which is the population itself, but only one or two people have attended to the talk and no more." Table 7 share the actual conditions of the local management in the Ancón district.

Role of the Community in the Tourist Activity of the Ancón District
Ancón residents, those who are involved in the supply of tourist services and those who indirectly do (complementary offer and residents involved) recognize the effect generated by tourism in their family economy, especially during summer season, although they show disinterest in the tourism development of their community. In the Table 8, Three sub categories were identified to classify the community: participation in tourism activity, benefits obtained by tourism and development of economic activities. Table 8. Matrix of the community role in the tourist activity in Ancon district.

Category Subcategory Code
Community role Participation in the tourist activity. Lack of interest from tourism companies.

Lack of knowledge in tourism
Tourism benefits.

Seasonal benefit
Economic benefit Development of economic activities Informal commerce, tourism, fishing, gastronomy, accommodation, and transport.

Discussion
The type of demand of the Ancón district is nearby domestic visitors, in family groups, friends or couples, whose main motivation is the sun and beach tourism, looking for recreation, fun, and getting out of the routine. The tourist activities are surfing, sport fishing, swimming, cultural visits, and finally visits to natural environments; this last activity is little known. Likewise, PromPerú [24,25] provides valuable statistics of domestic and foreign vacationer that match the visitor's profile in this study; these results are used to identify the demand typology, and thus fits the tourist offer of the district. Identifying the demand needs, analyzing their behavior, and having it fully identified [18,21] allows us to offer tourist destinations to the extent required by the target audience.
The tourist resources are the main source of tourist destination development; in the analyzed study place, such resources present visible damage, by both man (pollution, desecration, misuse of resources) and nature (desertification, saltpeter). The Necropolis of Ancón is clear evidence of a tourist resource in abandonment; on the contrary, the Lomas de Ancón is a natural tourist resource able to receive greater tourist flow; the old houses could be an attractive cultural resource for their architecture, conservation, and closeness among them; under a project of value, they could be part of a new tourist offer including the church, main square, and railway station. There is a risk of reducing visitor numbers if we do not value the tourism resources, since these are the main reasons for the tourist visits [27].
The equipment and facilities of the district are in development, the lodging infrastructure with deficiencies in comfort and services offered (accessibility and signage), are not yet in optimal conditions to maximize the travel experience, as well as raising the rates during high season, which causes a bad experience and image of the destination [12]. If Ancon has more sources of tourist attraction correctly developed, high season trips will be decongested [39].
The study of these factors and others, such as the usefulness of the service installed, air fresheners, decoration, and impact will make it possible to have a broader picture, beyond just thinking in remodeling and building [37]. Restaurants went beyond their capacities; they sell their food without proper technique, moreover, during winter season, many restaurants closed because they have low demand and the complementary services are fewer, for example: Ancón has few banks; there are no exchange houses to facilitate the exchange of foreign currency; according to Kantola et al. [35], the municipal and state government support is important to allow advising and working together to plan the tourist offer.
In infrastructure, Ancón has basic services, although there are problems of drinking water supply and sewerage network in remote areas, electric light is stable, the means of transport is terrestrial and presents problems of disorganization and supply during summer. The health service and public sanitation are basic; the citizen awareness is reflected in the garbage dumping near residential complexes, which increases the risk of skin and respiratory diseases; this social behavior type demands understanding the behaviors and beliefs [29] of this society, then raising awareness about environment and tourism.
The district superstructure maintains a few strategic alliances to counteract the problems of flow in high and low season; this is reflected in a glaring lack of investment projects and training for the local community and visitors, although the superstructure has the means, as well as human and material resources to do so [5,34].
The community role in the tourist activity is indispensable; they participate in tourism as part of the tourist offer and their knowledge of the local reality is necessary for the decision-making [32]. By lacking knowledge and interest to participate in the local tourism development, the community offers low-quality services, consequently, it increases the risk of ill-treatment and helps the visitor. A way to bring the population closer and awaken their interest in the benefits of responsible tourism is through extrinsic motivators, that means a rewards policy for actions, as well as the reflection on the cost-benefit in the medium and long term, and constraints on the transgression of rules that could have subsequent damages [50].
Below, the proposal of this study is presented, where the diagnosis (Figure 3) of the tourist system of Molina [11] is made and, in addition, a restructuring of its components is proposed according to the real dynamic of a destination. benefit in the medium and long term, and constraints on the transgression of rules that could have subsequent damages [50].
Below, the proposal of this study is presented, where the diagnosis (Figure 3) of the tourist system of Molina [11] is made and, in addition, a restructuring of its components is proposed according to the real dynamic of a destination. Through the application of the Molina [11] tourist system, we are submitting this proposal to establish a new form of the diagnosis of the tourist system for destination managers to know how is the behavior of the district tourism management, as it is known that, in developing countries, it is done in an empirical manner and that it is of the utmost importance to seek the competitiveness of the destination through the management of its resources [69]. Molina [11] presents us the elements of the tourist system using an explanatory model but by contrast, we leave open the possibility of social interaction with other systems. Therefore, we found a gap if we carry out a diagnosis of tourism, so this study diagnoses each item, as proposed by the core author, but also proposes the following step which is the correct exposition and interaction of the sub systems resulting from the field diagnostics. Product of the local diagnosis in Ancón and based on the reviewed literature, it is evident that three of the subsystems analyzed maintain interaction with other subsystems in each other, these are local community, superstructure, and the local population. In addition, the three additional elements: infrastructure, equipment and facilities, and the tourist attractions are linked within a local system; they have only provided us with evidence of current conditions and their link is basically with the elements of the subsystem to which it belongs. To this end, a series of codes and own categories have been identified from the instrument results used for the reader to have a diagnostic method that will work in their local reality.
The main actors are the agents that make up the superstructure and have greater preparation and resources than the rest of the participants. They are responsible for carrying out step-by-step diagnosis of the tourist system components. It is necessary to establish arrays as the proposals in this study or other involved, analysis of problems- Through the application of the Molina [11] tourist system, we are submitting this proposal to establish a new form of the diagnosis of the tourist system for destination managers to know how is the behavior of the district tourism management, as it is known that, in developing countries, it is done in an empirical manner and that it is of the utmost importance to seek the competitiveness of the destination through the management of its resources [69]. Molina [11] presents us the elements of the tourist system using an explanatory model but by contrast, we leave open the possibility of social interaction with other systems. Therefore, we found a gap if we carry out a diagnosis of tourism, so this study diagnoses each item, as proposed by the core author, but also proposes the following step which is the correct exposition and interaction of the sub systems resulting from the field diagnostics. Product of the local diagnosis in Ancón and based on the reviewed literature, it is evident that three of the subsystems analyzed maintain interaction with other subsystems in each other, these are local community, superstructure, and the local population. In addition, the three additional elements: infrastructure, equipment and facilities, and the tourist attractions are linked within a local system; they have only provided us with evidence of current conditions and their link is basically with the elements of the subsystem to which it belongs. To this end, a series of codes and own categories have been identified from the instrument results used for the reader to have a diagnostic method that will work in their local reality.
The main actors are the agents that make up the superstructure and have greater preparation and resources than the rest of the participants. They are responsible for carrying out step-by-step diagnosis of the tourist system components. It is necessary to establish arrays as the proposals in this study or other involved, analysis of problemstrees, SWOT, and others that help diagnose those responsible for the project; subsequently, the rest of the components of the tourism system are evaluated, from tourist attractions to tourism demand (in that order). The territory lets you sort and distribute the agents that interact in it, that is to say, all those socio-economic, environmental, technological, and legal activities that are part of land management [70]. Finally, action is taken through plans or projects according to their amplitude and temporality, being superstructure in charge again.
The elliptical presentation and degraded points (---) is because a systemic model should reflect the reality of each item that is somehow connected to another and, therefore, related under a common environment, without closing the possibility to interact with other systems [44,[47][48][49].

Conclusions
The type of demand of the district of Ancón is regional visitors, the main activities developed continue being recreation through surfing, sport fishing, swimming, cultural visits like other coastal destinations although Ancón has several natural tourist resources capable of breaking with seasonality and contribute to sustainable tourism development in the rest of the year. Likewise, there is a considerable drop in the flow of visits outside the summer season. The managers of Ancón don't help with the quantitative support like visitors profile. During the later seasons, beginning in autumn, winter, and spring the Lomas de Ancón as the main natural local resource is an ecosystem of more than 10,000 hectares that is full of natural resources and landscapes but does not show the flow of visitors that it should. In this sense, we could affirm a very marked seasonal demand behavior which would be generating an overload of tourist flow in summer although it is possible to generate strategies for the distribution of tourist demand traffic [39]. Likewise, there is a lack of specific quantitative support from the district [6], and it is necessary to analyze the current visitor trend so that local managers offer experiential tourism activities, nature, and local community connection [27].
This result generates a series of relevant implications directed to the managers of the tourist destination, who must enter into agreements to prepare tourism planning and design a more attractive and defined image of the tourist destination.
The main tourist resource and the one most in demand is the Ancón beach, although the cultural and architectural tourist resources add value to the visiting experience. This is due to its optimal conditions and colonial and republican architectural beauty, although they are not promoted as tourist resources. The tourist resources of Ancón are a different alternative to other nearby destinations because of the cultural and natural resources with potential and that will allow sustainable tourism development [29].
The equipment and facilities exceed the price of their services and the quality is low because of the saturation of demand due to the summer season and the limited variety of complementary services. Local managers must oversee local tourism services and generate commitment through awareness programs during the year or prior to the start of the summer season [70].
The infrastructure is one of the most relevant aspects and it is basic for the development of a tourist destination. Ancón has good accessibility, since it is connected with the Pan-American Highway, though internally there are some sections without road and tourist signs, but it is not a problem for a viable tourism development plan. Another latent problem is that the urban transit units do not have the capacity to withstand all the tourist flow during summer and, therefore, informal transporters who raise the standard rate and create chaos and traffic jams emerge, especially in days and hours of greater concurrence.
Concerning the role of the community, the population has little interest in participating, except those who receive direct benefits from tourism, even so, they may be slow in getting involved in the destination management, since the main economic activities are informal street trade, tourism, fishing, and transportation; perhaps local entrepreneurs are the ones who promote a dialog bridge where you find a negotiation environment [32].
The superstructure needs strategic alliances that help it manage the destination and one of its major alliances would be with the local population, government agencies, and private companies, considering that their level of participation is subject to the visiting season [35]. This way, they could finance tourism projects and increase local tourism awareness, as well as the protection and promotion of Ancón's tourism resources.
Finally, the new proposed model has emerged as a result of the evaluation of the tourist dynamics of the chosen destination, within which the elements of the tourist system show interaction within a territory. Future research could include a detailed diagnosis of the interaction with other systems and subsystems in multi-destination.

Limitations and Future Perspectives
This study has several limitations. First, this study covered a single tourist destination, the different destinations have their own relationship dynamics although the elements are the same. Second, although the diagnosis of a tourist destination can be a guide model for local tourism management, it is possible that there are other variables or greater intensity of interaction between the analyzed subsystems, so that a diagnosis is evident in the study but not the intensity or force of interaction between each element, as well as its stages of development. Third, this study considered the key actors in their analysis of the local tourism dynamics, however, it is possible that there are knowledge limitations or some additional information that has not been expressed.
The results of the study show that the season of high tourist influx is in the months of sun and beach between January and March, the rest of the year the demand decreases due to the change of season and factors such as the beginning of the school year in April. For this reason, two actions are evident: on the one hand, adequate local governance on the dates with the greatest influx of visitors; and, on the other hand, to identify the natural resources with tourist potential that escape the temporality of a sun and beach destination. Such is the case of the present tourist destination, Ancón. Which, in the low tourism season, begins the "green" season or the flowering of the coastal hills, although they are not yet managed for sustained nature tourism.
Therefore, future research could do more to expand the units of analysis and the construction process and even redesign the proposed model. A quantitative study containing the volume of demand, a historical and projected analysis of the changes in the natural areas of the destination, could contribute to the analysis of growing tourist destinations.