Sustainable Development and Energy Policy: Actual CO 2 Emissions in the European Union in the Years 1997–2017, Considering Trade with China and the USA

: One of the ways of implementing the concept of sustainable development by the European Union is their energy policy. Among the three main objectives in its energy policy is a reduction in greenhouse gases (mainly CO 2 ) emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. This study aims to assess the impact of international trade on actual CO 2 emission in the EU, China and the USA for the period 1997–2017. For this aim, the Actual-Open CO 2 emissions were calculated, taking into account the transfer of CO 2 in exported products and services from China and the USA to the EU and vice versa. It is concluded that the actual CO 2 emissions in China, the USA, and the EU di ﬀ ered from the traditionally calculated emissions. This has serious consequences for policy, as the factual level of implementation of the EU energy policy goals may be di ﬀ erent from what is assumed. Without including the goals of energy policy into trade policy, the e ﬀ ectiveness of measures may be limited. This also has implications for the e ﬀ ectiveness of environmental management systems. When improvements rely on increasing trade with large CO 2 emitting countries, the ﬁnal e ﬀ ect may be opposed to the assumed e ﬀ ect.


Introduction
We live in a global world, where the activities of particular countries have a direct or indirect impact on other countries. However, countries do not all function in the same way and follow the same rules. This creates challenges for the European Union's (EU) sustainable development policy, including the energy policy. While directives and documents forming the EU's energy policy, as well as their amendments, show a clear direction of changes in the European energy sector, environmental awareness and implementation differ between member states. The EU is consciously following a path of development of new "green technologies" in the field of energy. This is connected with its strategy aimed at becoming the world leader in terms of modern technologies. The development of innovative industries is supported to gain a competitive advantage in the global market in the future [1][2][3][4][5].
The principles of sustainable development are important for EU policy in general, as well as for its energy policy in particular. Probably the most well-known definition of sustainable development (SD) is the one proposed by Gro Harlem Brundtland, presented in the report 'Our Common Future': "a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." [6]. It is important to understand that SD does not prohibit the use of natural resources, but requires compliance with several rules in this matter. Generally speaking, it is a development that takes into account current economic, ecological and social aspects, balancing their significance while preventing a reduction in developmental opportunities for future generations. In the

Materials and Methods
The research presented in this paper is based on using the basic circular flow model in economics, identifying the flow of money through the economy. The model distinguishes a closed economy, without international trade, and an open economy, including international trade (imports and exports). The current approach to the calculation of CO 2 emissions per country is analogous to the concept of a closed circular flow model. This approach may be insufficient, as the economy is globalized, with international trade playing an important role. As the CO 2 intensity of imports and exports may differ, the real impact of a country on CO 2 emissions also may differ.
To begin with, the Actual-Open emission of CO 2 was determined as the CO 2 emissions of a particular country. This number diminished by the emissions embraced in exported goods and services of the country, and then the emissions embedded in imported goods and services were added. The following formulas present a method used to calculate Actual-Open emissions of CO 2 for the EU (the emissions for China and USA are calculated similarly): (I m /GDP)%-import as a share of the GDP of a particular country from with the EU imports; (E x /GDP)%-export as share of EU GDP exported to a particular country; (I m /GDP)%*E OCC -quantity of imported CO 2 embedded in goods and services from a particular country into the EU; (E x /GDP)%*E OC b-Quantity of exported CO 2 from the EU to the particular country embedded in goods and services; E AO -Actual-Open CO 2 emissions.
In order to calculate the Actual-Open emission of CO 2 of a certain country, data from all its trade partners are needed. This study focuses on the EU member countries, the USA and China. The impact of the USA and China on the Official-Closed emissions of CO 2 in the EU, and the EU on the USA and China (S B ), will be shown. In this article, the focus will be on the Actual-Open emission of CO 2 , considering the trade between China, the USA and 27 EU member countries.
Data for the research were obtained from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2019; CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, IEA, 2019, and The Observatory of Economic Complexity [10]. Available data are always featured despite uncertainty about their reliability. The calculation of emissions embedded in imports and exports provides a rather rough picture. This picture shows a general challenge in the assessment of data in terms of assessing the effectiveness of policy for sustainable development. This analysis needs refinement, which is a task for future studies.

Official-Closed Emission of the USA, China, and the EU
A reduction in CO 2 emissions is one of the priorities of the EU energy policy. It shows the environmental awareness of the EU. However, the reduction in CO 2 emissions concerns only the EU, and except for encouragement and international agreements, there are no direct instruments to convince other countries in the world to undertake similar actions.
The Official-Closed (OC) emission of CO 2 is the value of CO 2 emitted by a country. Tables 1  and 2    Source: author's calculation based on [12,13].
In 2017, China was responsible for 27.76% of global CO 2 emissions ( Table 2). The global share of Official-Closed CO 2 emissions rose between 1997 and 2013 to 28.16%, stabilizing afterward. The global share of the EU-27 declined from 18.03% in 1997 to 10.55% in 2017, afterward slightly increasing. The share of the USA in global emissions declined from 24.14% in 1997 to 15.08% in 2017. Over the whole period, the share in global emissions for the EU, China, and the USA together circulated 55%.
One of the three main aims of the EU energy policy is a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. A main component of GHG is CO 2 . In Tables 3  and 4, the OC CO 2 emissions of 27 EU member countries for the period 1997-2017 are presented. In order to meet the aim of CO 2 emission reduction, the level of 80% should be obtained. The goal was not achieved by 13 members until 2017: Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, Cyprus, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. One of these countries, Poland, circulated around the 80% level since 2000, sometimes being below and sometimes above this level. Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain showed a higher level of emissions for the whole survey time than in 1990. The 14 EU member countries that achieved the CO 2 energy policy goal include Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Slovakia, having already reached the aim in 1997. This may be due to the economic transformation from a socialist economy, relying on heavy industry, to a market-based economy. In the transition period, there was a serious decline in economic activity and heavy industry, which contributed to the decline in emissions [14].

Actual-Open Emission of CO 2 -Considering EU Trade with China and the USA
Both China and the USA had a positive balance of CO 2 with the EU, meaning that their exports of goods and services contained more CO 2 emissions than their imports. China for the 21 years under analysis had a total S B value of 6264.83 MT of CO 2 , and the USA 416.5 MT of CO 2 . This means that the E AO for the USA and Chinese is lower than their E OC . China's net export of CO 2 to the EU was more than 15 times higher than the for the USA in the period 1997-2017. Thus, trade with China had a much bigger impact on actual emission of CO 2 for the EU than the USA. It is worth mentioning that China S B was positive during all the years considered for all individual EU member countries. The USA's S B with individual EU member countrues was different for different years.
As shown in Table 5, the Actual-Open Emissions for China and the USA are lower than the Actual-Closed Emissions. The consideration of international trade had the consequence that the Actual-Open Emissions for the EU are higher than the Actual-Closed Emissions ( Table 5). The EU showed a negative S B for CO 2 emissions in all the 21 years considered in this survey (i.e., for the EU E AO was higher than E OC ). For the EU, E AO exceeded E OC in the years 1997-2017, ranging from 2% (1997) to 13.5% (2014). The opposite situation was observed regarding the Chinese and USA E AO . China's E AO obtained a value ranging from 92.87% (2008) to 98.51% (1997) of E OC . In the USA. E AO obtained valued in the range between 99.36% (1997) and 99.82% (2005) of E OC . Thus, trade with the EU had a very minor impact on the USA's E AO . However, the picture becomes different when considering the individual EU members (Tables 6 and 7). The differences need to be considered when creating policy, as a "one-fits-all" approach is unlikely to deal with the CO 2 emission transfer via trade.  emission reduction between 2009 and 2007 using E OC . When using E AO , Germany did not achieve the aim in any of the years analyzed. When looking at the total number of years in which the aim of 20% CO 2 emission reduction was achieved, we see a decline of 22% when including the effects of international trade on the analysis. For each country, 21 years were analyzed. Assuming there are 26 countries (Belgium and Luxembourg are analyzed together), there are 546 years (26 × 21) where the emission reduction aim could be achieved. Considering E OC , the aim was achieved in 200 years. Considering E AO , this number declines to 156.

Discussion
The effectiveness of the EU energy policy may be lower when taking into consideration the Actual-Open emissions of CO 2 . Due to the transfer of CO 2 emissions through imports and exports, the benefits from an isolated reduction in CO 2 emission may be smaller than the statistics show. For example, when EU policy may lead to a reduction in the emissions of its member states, the effect may be reduced or even be negative with an increase in CO 2 -intensive imports. This is an issue for further research in terms of whether the EU energy policy supports sustainable development. When using the Actual-Open emission of CO 2 , it may turn out that international agreements for reducing CO 2 emissions, such as the Kyoto Protocol, may be ineffective [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. A well-known reason for the problem discussed the relocation of production to low-cost countries, with lenient environmental regulation, lack of environmental policy and weak enforcement mechanisms. As a consequence, countries with a strong environmental policy may also import more from the countries with higher intensities of CO 2 emissions. As a consequence, when aiming to achieve the goals of the EU energy policy, trade policy should be reconsidered.

Conclusions
The European Union is often regarded as the leader in policy for sustainable development and the prevention of global warming, by supporting clean energy and a reduction in CO 2 emissions. However, as the EU economy is interwoven with large producers such as China and the USA, there are also large CO 2 emitters affecting the Actual-Open emission through imports and exports; thus, climate policy should be included in international trade policy to achieve the goals of the energy policy. This is also important for analyzing, for example, the effectiveness of environmental management systems in the sector, as improvement may be leveled out via increased supplies from CO 2 -intensive industries in other countries. Imports from China to the EU seem to embrace more CO 2 emissions than imports from the USA. This negatively affects the Actual-Open emission of CO 2 of all EU member countries. The level of CO 2 emission in 11 EU member countries declined by at least 20% compared to 1990, indicating the achievement of the energy policy goal. However, three of these countries did not achieve the goal when considering the emissions embedded in imports and exports. The impact of trade on the actual level of CO 2 emissions was the strongest for China and the weakest for the USA, with the EU in between. Four indicators were responsible for the strong difference between E OC and E AO in China and the EU: 1. Total GDP; 2. % share of GDP exported; 3. % share of GDP imported; 4. Official-Closed CO 2 emission.
An implication of the research may be that for achieving climate goals by the EU, including trade with China in policy measures may receive primacy over trade policy with the USA, For example, an eco-energy tax could be introduced for all trade partners concerning the total exports to the EU [7]. However, this is a crude measure, not considering the CO 2 emission intensity of different sectors. This issue requires elaboration, to allow for specific policy targeting.
Funding: This research received no external funding.

Conflicts of Interest:
The author declares no conflict of interest.