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Sustainability 2018, 10(3), 656; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030656

Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China

1
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
2
Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
3
Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone and Collage of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Xinyi Road 102, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang China
4
Hotan Regional Environmental Monitoring Station, Hotan Regional Environmental Protection Bureau, Gujan south Road 277, Hotan 848000, Xinjiang, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 8 November 2017 / Revised: 8 February 2018 / Accepted: 15 February 2018 / Published: 28 February 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessment and Governance of Sustainable Soil Management)
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Abstract

Significant anthropogenic and biophysical changes have caused fluctuations in the soil salinization area of the Keriya Oasis in China. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) sustainability framework and Bayesian networks (BNs) were used to integrate information from anthropogenic and natural systems to model the trend of secondary soil salinization. The developed model predicted that light salinization (vegetation coverage of around 15–20%, soil salt 5–10 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term but decelerate slightly in the future, and that farmland salinization will decrease in the near term. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future. Both trends are attributed to decreased water logging, increased groundwater exploitation, and decreased ratio of evaporation/precipitation. In contrast, severe salinization (vegetation coverage of around 2%, soil salt ≥20 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term. This trend will accelerate in the future because decreased river flow will reduce the flushing of severely salinized soil crust. Anthropogenic factors have negative impacts and natural causes have positive impacts on light salinization of ecotones. In situations involving severe farmland salinization, anthropogenic factors have persistent negative impacts. View Full-Text
Keywords: arid oasis; combination of modern and indigenous knowledge; Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response sustainability framework; bayesian network arid oasis; combination of modern and indigenous knowledge; Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response sustainability framework; bayesian network
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Seydehmet, J.; Lv, G.H.; Nurmemet, I.; Aishan, T.; Abliz, A.; Sawut, M.; Abliz, A.; Eziz, M. Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China. Sustainability 2018, 10, 656.

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