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Does More Expert Adjustment Associate with Less Accurate Professional Forecasts?

Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, POB 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030044
Received: 8 February 2020 / Revised: 26 February 2020 / Accepted: 27 February 2020 / Published: 2 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Econometric Analysis and Its Applications)
Professional forecasters can rely on an econometric model to create their forecasts. It is usually unknown to what extent they adjust an econometric model-based forecast. In this paper we show, while making just two simple assumptions, that it is possible to estimate the persistence and variance of the deviation of their forecasts from forecasts from an econometric model. A key feature of the data that facilitates our estimates is that we have forecast updates for the same forecast target. An illustration to consensus forecasters who give forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and unemployment for a range of countries and years suggests that the more a forecaster deviates from a prediction from an econometric model, the less accurate are the forecasts. View Full-Text
Keywords: professional forecasters; econometric model; expert adjustment; forecast accuracy professional forecasters; econometric model; expert adjustment; forecast accuracy
MDPI and ACS Style

Franses, P.H.; Welz, M. Does More Expert Adjustment Associate with Less Accurate Professional Forecasts? J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13, 44.

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