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Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa

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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2019) | Viewed by 74978

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Dr. Alessandro Pezzoli

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Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning (DIST), Polytechnic University of Turin, Viale Mattioli 39, 10125 Turin, Italy
Interests: meteorology; hydrology; marine engineering; marine navigation
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Prof. Dr. Maurizio Tiepolo

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Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning (DIST), Politecnico University of Turin, viale Mattioli 39, 10125 Turin, Italy
Interests: climate change adaptation; risk management; sustainable local development; urban and regional planning
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Dr. Vieri Tarchiani

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Istituto di bioecomomia, National Research Council of Italy, I-50145 Florence, Italy
Interests: agrometeorology; climate services; disaster risk reduction
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue is devoted to climate change and hydroclimatic risks, as recommended by the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction (2015), and hydro-climatic risk reduction measures, according the 13° Sustainable Development Goal of the United Nations (2015), with specific reference to African context.

We warmly welcome original, high-quality and unpublished manuscripts that present methodologies and best practices in two broad areas:

Local scale climate trends and climate impacts (agricultural droughts, floods, etc.),
Climate services offered by national meteorological organizations to local planning, projects and farmers in the form of decision-making tools for disaster risk reduction (multi-hazard risk cartography and index, early warning systems, local agro-meteorological bulletins, etc.).

Dr. Alessandro Pezzoli
Prof. Dr. Maurizio Tiepolo
Dr. Vieri Tarchiani
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Climate services
DroughtFlood
Flood time series analysis
Early warning systems
Risk analysis
Multi-Hazard risk
Risk reduction

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 2539 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Infilling Methods for Time Series of Daily Temperature Data: Case Study of Limpopo Province, South Africa

by Zakhele Phumlani Shabalala, Mokhele Edmond Moeletsi, Mphethe Isaac Tongwane and Sabelo Marvin Mazibuko

Climate 2019, 7(7), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070086 - 3 Jul 2019

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 5532

Abstract

Incomplete climate records pose a major challenge to decision makers that utilize climate data as one of their main inputs. In this study, different climate data infilling methods (arithmetic averaging, inverse distance weighting, UK traditional, normal ratio and multiple regression) were evaluated against measured daily minimum and maximum temperatures. Eight target stations that are evenly distributed in Limpopo province, South Africa, were used. The objective was to recommend the best approach that results in lowest errors. The optimum number of buddy/neighboring weather stations required for best estimate for each of the approaches was determined. The evaluation indices employed in this study were the correlation coefficient (r), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), accuracy rate (AR) and mean bias error (MBE). The results showed high correlation (r > 0.92) for all the stations, different methods and varying number of neighboring stations utilised. The MAE [RMSE] for the best performing methods (multiple regression and UK traditional) of estimating daily minimum temperature and maximum temperature was less than 1.8 °C [2.3 °C] and 1.0 °C [1.6 °C], respectively. The AR technique showed the MR method as the best approach of estimating daily minimum and maximum temperatures. The other recommended methods are the UK traditional and normal ratio. The MBEs for the arithmetic averaging and inverse-distance weighing techniques are large, indicating either over- or underestimating of the air temperature in the province. Based on the low values for the error estimating statistics, these data infilling methods for daily minimum and maximum air temperatures using neighboring stations data can be utilised to complete the datasets that are used in various applications. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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18 pages, 2150 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Information for Adaptation and Response to Flooding, Multi-Stakeholder Perspectives in Nigeria

by Jessica Lamond, Olalekan Adekola, Ibidun Adelekan, Bassey Eze and Fanan Ujoh

Climate 2019, 7(4), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7040046 - 29 Mar 2019

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 5405

Abstract

Provision of data and information for disaster risk reduction is increasingly important to enable resilience. However, the focus of provision in many African countries is limited to national scale risk assessment and meteorological data. The research aimed to consider the perspectives on availability and access to information of different local urban actors that require reliable and specific information to make informed decisions. The research used workshop discussions and questionnaires to collect views from stakeholders in flood risk management in Nigerian cities about their current access to information and requirements. The results confirmed that stakeholders and communities agree in recognising the importance of climate information. Findings identified issues surrounding communication between agencies, government and technical experts. The role of the media and business in filling the vacuum left by state provision of information was further highlighted, demonstrating the potential for Private Public Partnerships in supporting adaptation and response to flooding. However, significant differences in access between sub-groups were also revealed such that some marginalised groups may be excluded from information. It follows that climate services, data and information provision need to be collaboratively designed in order to be more inclusive, meet user requirements and build community capacity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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21 pages, 5709 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda

by Anthony Egeru, Bernard Barasa, Josephine Nampijja, Aggrey Siya, Moses Tenywa Makooma and Mwanjalolo Gilbert Jackson Majaliwa

Climate 2019, 7(3), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7030035 - 26 Feb 2019

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 8682

Abstract

Long-term trend analysis at local scale for rainfall and temperature is critical for detecting climate change patterns. This study analysed historical (1980–2009), near future (2010–2039), mid- (1940–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) rainfall and temperature over Karamoja sub-region. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) daily climate data provided by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was used. The AgMIP delta method analysis protocol was used for an ensemble of 20 models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Historical mean rainfall was 920.1 ± 118.9 mm and minimum, maximum and mean temperature were 16.8 ± 0.5 °C, 30.6 ± 0.4 °C and 32.0 ± 0.7 °C, respectively. Minimum temperature over the historical period significantly rose between 2000 and 2008. Near future rainfall varied by scenario with 1012.9 ± 146.3 mm and 997.5 ± 144.7 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively; with a sharp rise predicted in 2017. In the mid-century, mean annual rainfall will be 1084.7 ± 137.4 mm and 1205.5 ± 164.9 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The districts of Kaabong and Kotido are projected to experience low rainfall total under RCP4.5 (mid-century) and RCP8.5 (end-century). The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 °C (RCP8.5) in mid-century, and by 2.2 °C (RCP4.5) and 4.0 °C (RCP8.5) in end-century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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16 pages, 2219 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Past and Future Precipitation Trend Analysis for the City of Niamey (Niger): An Overview

by Velia Bigi, Alessandro Pezzoli and Maurizio Rosso

Climate 2018, 6(3), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030073 - 5 Sep 2018

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 6629

Abstract

Despite the interest in detecting the extremes of climate in the West African Sahel, few studies have been specifically conducted on the Republic of Niger. This research focuses on past, present, and future precipitation trends for the city of Niamey through the combined assessment of WMO precipitation indices using RClimDex and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Past daily precipitation data were derived from a 60-year reconstructed meteorological dataset for the Niamey airport station for the period of 1950–2009 and validated through comparison with an observed time series at Niamey airport (1980–2012). Precipitation analysis confirms the literature’s findings, in particular, a decreasing trend in total precipitation over the period of 1950–2009, and a positive trend for data that spans over the period of 1980–2009, suggesting a precipitation recovery after the dry epoch (1968–1985), even if the deficit with the wettest years in the period of 1950–1968 has not been made up. Furthermore, WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim projections, elaborated under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 socio-economic conditions, show that precipitation will increase in the future. Therefore, the Nigerien population will benefit from increased rainfall, but will also have to cope with the exacerbation of both flood and drought risks due to a great interannual variability that can positively or negatively influence water availability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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29 pages, 5975 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Multihazard Risk Assessment for Planning with Climate in the Dosso Region, Niger

by Maurizio Tiepolo, Maurizio Bacci and Sarah Braccio

Climate 2018, 6(3), 67; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030067 - 8 Aug 2018

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 8344

Abstract

International aid for climate change adaptation in West Africa is increasing exponentially, but our understanding of hydroclimatic risks is not keeping pace with that increase. The aim of this article is to develop a multihazard risk assessment on a regional scale based on existing information that can be repeated over time and space and that will be useful during decision-making processes. This assessment was conducted in Dosso (Niger), the region most hit by flooding in the country, with the highest hydroclimatic risk in West Africa. The assessment characterizes the climate, identifies hazards, and analyzes multihazard risk over the 2011–2017 period for each of the region’s 43 municipalities. Hazards and risk level are compared to the intervention areas and actions of 6 municipal development plans and 12 adaptation and resilience projects. Over the past seven years, heavy precipitation and dry spells in the Dosso region have been more frequent than during the previous 30-year period. As many as 606 settlements have been repeatedly hit and 15 municipalities are classified as being at elevated-to-severe multihazard risk. The geographical distribution of the adaptation and resilience projects does not reflect the risk level. A third of the local development plans examined propose actions that are inconsistent with the main hydroclimatic threats. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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20 pages, 3508 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Mapping Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration in the Mkomazi River Basin, Tanzania

by Godfrey A. Mmbando and Michael Kleyer

Climate 2018, 6(3), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030063 - 17 Jul 2018

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 10104

Abstract

It is still a challenge to provide spatially explicit predictions of climate parameters in African regions of complex relief, where meteorological information is scarce. Here we predict rainfall, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) for the southern Mkomazi River Basin in Northeastern Tanzania, East Africa, by means of regression-based, digital elevation models (DEM) at 90 m spatial-resolution and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques. We mapped rainfall for the period 1964–2010. The models accounted for orographic factors which strongly influenced the spatial variability of rainfall in the region. According to orography, the area was divided into three zones for modelling rainfall: windward, leeward, and transition zone. Rainfall indicates high spatial and temporal variability dominated by equatorial East-African climate circulation systems. Maximum and minimum temperatures were modelled for the period 1989–1994, the models accounted only for the altitude gradient. Mean temperature was calculated by arithmetic mean of maximum and minimum temperatures maps in ArcGIS. ET_o was estimated in ArcGIS following the method described by Hargreaves and Samani. The maps were made on a monthly basis for rainfall, ET_o, and mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures. The obtained maps are useful for the purpose of agriculture, ecological, and water resources management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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18 pages, 2878 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Recent Changes of Floods and Related Impacts in Niger Based on the ANADIA Niger Flood Database

by Edoardo Fiorillo, Alfonso Crisci, Hassimou Issa, Giampiero Maracchi, Marco Morabito and Vieri Tarchiani

Climate 2018, 6(3), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030059 - 3 Jul 2018

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 9658

Abstract

During the last two decades, the sub-Saharan region has experienced unusual floods that have differentially impacted the region. No official and precise data regarding flood damage and impacts on the population are available, and the magnitude of events are not easily evaluated. Most previous studies have investigated this new threat using data derived from local media sources or world disaster databases. The aim of this study was to provide the scientific community and policy makers with an updated and reliable referenced data source concerning floods in Niger between 1998 and 2015, at national, regional and sub-regional scales. Reliable information regarding floods was derived from the national official flood damage database (ANADIA DB) showing their impact on the country. During the investigated period, considerable numbers regarding flood impacts were found (about 4000 settlements and 1.7 million people were affected by floods). The analysis also indicates a sudden increase in flood impacts since 2010. Regions in the south-west (Tillabery, Dosso and Niamey district) are the most affected; however, this kind of risk involves the whole country, and some particularly vulnerable areas have been identified. A data modeling comprehensive framework based on remotely sensed rainfall (climate hazards group infrared precipitation with stations (CHIRPS)) and vegetation index (moderate resolution imagery spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI)) datasets data along with census data were used to investigate which variables are most able to explain the recent and sudden Niger flood vulnerability detected at the departmental scale. Only a few statistically significant flood damage models were found (61 out of 297), due essentially to the non-linearity of the increase in damage time series compared to environmental and climatic trends. The population increase is the most significant variable at national level; however, at regional and sub-regional scales, different patterns provided evidence to identify local triggers for vulnerability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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23 pages, 1464 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Small-Scale Fishers’ Perceptions on Climate Change and Their Coping Strategies: Insights from Lake Malawi

by Moses Majid Limuwa, Bishal Kumar Sitaula, Friday Njaya and Trond Storebakken

Climate 2018, 6(2), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020034 - 30 Apr 2018

Cited by 42 | Viewed by 9290

Abstract

The effects of climate change have negatively affected Malawi’s agricultural production. In this context, fisheries have been providing alternative livelihoods. However, there is a knowledge gap around the responses of small-scale fishers to climate-related changes. Therefore, a study was conducted on the Western shores of Lake Malawi between August 2015 and April 2016. The study evaluated the perceived effects of climate change on small-scale fishers and their coping strategies by employing a wide range of methods for data collection and analysis. The study used explorative surveys, household surveys, focus group discussions and key informant interviews to collect data. The study randomly sampled 112 household heads who owned either fishing gear or a fishing vessel or both. Content analysis for themes was used to analyse the qualitative data. The Mann–Kendal Test was used to analyse trends in meteorological data, and binary logistic regression was used to determine factors that influence coping with low fish catches. Despite the respondents noticing an increased incidence of extreme weather events and low fish catches, their perceptions could not be validated using time series meteorological data. However, such perceptions were influenced by experience from long-time exposure to extreme weather events and to low fish catches. The majority of the fishers had adjusted to these changes by increasing their fishing time, using highly efficient illegal fishing nets, expanding farming land, operating small businesses and undertaking casual labour in agriculture and fishing activities. The fishers’ propensity to adjust to these changes increased due to the presence of the following factors: older age of household head, higher education level, being married and having an annual income. In contrast, being a member of fish conservation club decreased the probability of adjusting. This study emphasizes the need to be cautious when defining and framing perceptions of local communities on extreme weather events as data obtained could be misleading. Furthermore, a multi-sectoral approach to balance sustainable livelihoods and management of fisheries is needed. These findings provide theoretical and practical lessons that can inform design, planning and implementation of policies that enhance adaptive capacity in fisheries and promote sustainable livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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16 pages, 5505 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Closing the Gap between Climate Information Producers and Users: Assessment of Needs and Uptake in Senegal

by Issa Ouedraogo, Ndeye Seynabou Diouf, Mathieu Ouédraogo, Ousmane Ndiaye and Robert B. Zougmoré

Climate 2018, 6(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010013 - 19 Feb 2018

Cited by 60 | Viewed by 9894

Abstract

West Africa is a very vulnerable part of the world to the impacts of climate change due to a combination of exposure and low adaptive capacity. Climate change has induced an increase in rainfall variability which in turn has affected the availability of water resources, ecosystem services and agricultural production. To adapt to the increased aridity, farmers have used indigenous and modern coping strategies such as soil and water conservation techniques, the use of drought-tolerant crops and varieties, crop diversification, etc., and lately, climate information services (CIS). The latter, according to the discourses, has positively contributed to suitable decision-making in terms of farming, pastoral and fishing management systems. However, the scientific documentation of the engagement approaches, the uptake of the CIS and the ways the delivered information is being used, as well as feedback from the users, is lacking. Additionally, in most of the cases where CIS are introduced, the disconnect between the users and producers of the CIS seems to undercut large-scale uptake. The objective of this paper is to examine the approach used to involve stakeholders in the CIS uptake process in Senegal. We analyzed the experiences and lessons learnt in the country where various CIS products were introduced using participatory methods (stakeholder consultations, interviews, field demonstrations, training workshops, etc.) and innovative stressors (SMS, voice messages, radios, mobile applications, etc.) to effectively involve producers, technicians and policy-makers. Results showed that 16 relevant CIS have been produced out of 27 identified by the various users; 11 CIS diffusion channels have been developed out of 13 requested; 27 climate advisory bodies (MWGs) have been created in 27 districts out of 30 districts in the study zone; about 6800 users have been trained directly and indirectly to effectively use CIS and about 8500 people are receiving CIS via SMS, voice messaging and emails. The opportunities for CIS uptake as well as the challenges that may impede the long-term sustainability of CIS upscaling in the country are highlighted. Recommendations that will improve and sustain the governance system of CIS in Senegal and the rest of West Africa include the involvement of private sectors in the chain of production, delivery and training, and the inciting of producers to largely subscribe to the weather-based index insurance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Services for Local Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa)

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