Land is one of the important input resources in a highly populous and land-scarce country such as Bangladesh. When different factors change (such as, geophysical, proximity, socioeconomic and climatic), there are dramatic changes in the spatial pattern of land uses. Thus, shedding light on the dynamics of land use and land cover changes has great importance for finding the changing pattern of land use in Bangladesh. In the present study, we predicted the land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2030 under baseline, ecological protection priority and economic growth scenarios in Bangladesh. On this basis, we applied a previously developed Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS) model to simulate the changes in land uses according to the driving mechanisms. The findings indicate that cultivated land declines and built-up area expansion is common under all three scenarios. However, the future land use demand shows differences under different scenarios. The results under the ecological protection priority scenario shows that forest area and grassland will increase more, while under economic growth scenario, built-up area will expand dramatically in the future. The present research results furnish meaningful decision-making information for planners to conserve and/or exploit land resources in Bangladesh in a more sustainable manner. Full article

“Eco-urbanization” emphasizes the importance of the ecological and environmental aspects of urbanization, which is to approach a balanced and healthy ecosystem through paying attention to the ecological intercorrelation of many factors. This involves balancing the stocks and utilization of multi-resources and balancing the efficiency and equality of multi-resources allocation to improve the quality of life for both urban and rural areas. In this dynamic process, resource allocations are carried out at different administrative levels, which have posed challenges of developing an integrated approach for eco-urbanization. Due to interaction and intersection of ecological activities among adjacent regions, a complex ecosystem tends to be in a fluid catchment area with dynamic flows of activities that transcend rigid administrative boundaries. The management of ecosystem sensitively impinges on the effectiveness of having an integrated approach of land governance in a comprehensive planning of urban–rural development. This will require scientific findings to support a policy-oriented management approach, which can take account of land use/cover changes (LUCC), ecosystem services and functions, interactive impacts of socio-economic transformation and climatic variations for optimum land use allocation to achieve the objective of ecosystem conservation and socio-economic development for both urban and rural area in a sustainable approach. Three aspects of development are identified as the importance of achieving advanced land governance for eco-urbanization. This paper aims to discuss these in turn: first, to find the adaptive measures in response to the uncertainty of climatic variation; second, to understand and research the scale and level of sustainable consumption for balancing resource saving and consumption; and third, to study ecological intercorrelation among multiple factors. We, therefore, argue that the far insight of “economic growth” via an ecologically-centered approach based on scientific solutions of all three aspects and intergovernmental consultations is important to support land governance for eco-urbanization and to strike a balance between environmental conservation and economic development. Full article

The urbanized world has brought social, economic, and environmental sustainability into challenged surroundings in rapidly rising countries, thereby requiring the exploration of their intertwined relationships. This study regarded Brazil, India, and China as “BIC” countries to be the representative study areas for our investigation of sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization. In general, our work was synthesized into a comparison framework in four aspects: rural–urban relation, industrial development, city development, and urban landscape pattern. We determined that rural–urban dichotomy exists in all study areas, with India and China having a high degree. China was identified as a manufacturing-based country in the past half-century, whereas Brazil and India have the service sector as their primary industry. The distribution of large cities follows a regional pattern, with Brazil being northeast-focused, China being southeast-focused, and India being comparatively balanced. The Amazon forest in the north brings great challenges to Brazil with respect to the conservation of its biodiversity and eco-environment. India and China have encountered tremendous urban expansion or sprawl in the past several decades. The sustainability issues in social, economic, and environmental aspects for Brazil, India, and China were summarized in the context of rapid urbanization to provide references for other countries. Full article

Qinghai Province has a very fragile ecological environment and is an important component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To understand the disturbance caused by human activities to the local ecological system, it is necessary to evaluate the response of ecological service functions to land use change in Qinghai Province and to uncover the sensitivity of ecological service functions to land use change. This study uses a proxy-based method and proposes a sensitivity index to describe the degree of ecological service function response to the land use change in Qinghai Province. The findings were as follows. (1) From 1988 to 2008, the area of cultivated land, construction land and water in Qinghai Province increased, and forest land and grassland continuously decreased. The agricultural economy and the development of urbanization are the main driving factors in land use change in this area. Policies and eco-environmental engineering, such as the grain-for-green project, the Three-North shelterbelt project and the natural forest protection project, have certain effects on controlling the expansion of cultivated land. (2) The value of ecosystem services in Qinghai Province was 157.368 billion yuan, 157.149 billion yuan and 157.726 billion yuan in 1988, 2000 and 2008, respectively, decreasing and then increasing again. (3) The average sensitivity index values of ecological services in Qinghai Province for the periods 1988–2000 and 2000–2008 was 0.693 and 1.137, respectively. This means that for every 1% increase in land use change, the ecological service value fluctuated by 0.693% and 1.137% in those periods. Full article

Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM) climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE) scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization in the areas experiencing deforestation and afforestation. Full article

Since the implementation of market oriented economic reform in 1978, China has been on the track of rapid urbanization. The unprecedented urbanization in China has resulted in substantial cultivated land loss and rapid expansion of urban areas. The cultivated land loss due to urbanization not only threatens food security in China, but has also led to ecological system degradation to which close attention should be paid. Therefore, we examined the effects of the conversion from cultivated to urban areas on the ecosystem service in the North China Plain on the basis of a net primary productivity based ecosystem service model (NESM) and a buffer comparison method. Cultivated land loss due to urbanization in the North China Plain led to a total loss of ecosystem service value of 34.66% during the period 1988–2008. Urban expansion significantly decreased the ecosystem service function of water conservation (–124.03%), nutrient cycling (–31.91%), gas regulation (−7.18%), and organic production (–7.18%), while it improved the soil conservation function (2.40%). Land use change accounted for 57.40% of the changes in ecosystem service and had a major influence on the changes in nutrient cycling and water conservation. However, climate change mainly determined the changes in gas regulation, organic production, and soil conservation. Full article

The conflict among natural resources, environment and economic development is one of the major problems to be solved in the current world. Sustainable development is a powerful tool on the way toward seeking for harmonious development. Due to a lack of resources and fragility in ecosystems, the Inland River Basin of China is facing a serious problem that needs to be solved. In this paper, northwest China is chosen as the study area. Based on the interregional input-output table of China for the years 2002 and 2007 and the provincial input-output table of 2007, the I-O table analysis method was adopted to calculate the influence coefficient and response coefficient of the five provinces in northwest China. Through the analysis of the results, the intersectoral relation has been investigated, which could lend some credence for seeking effective ways for sustainable development in western China. The research findings indicate that the tertiary industry and construction sector are capable of greatly driving the national economic development in northwest China and, thus, should be developed preferentially. Full article

Water availability is at the core of sustainable socioeconomic development and ecological conservation along with global climate and land use changes, especially in the areas that experience water problems. This study investigated the impacts of land use change on surface runoff and water yield with scenario-based land use change in the upper and middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland river basin in the arid region of northwestern China. Firstly, three land use structure scenarios were established, with different water utilization ratio levels (low-level, middle-level and high-level water utilization ratios). Then the spatial pattern of land uses was simulated with the Dynamic of Land System (DLS). Thereafter, the simulated land use data were used as the input data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, keeping other input data unchanged to isolate the land use change impacts on surface runoff and water yield. The results showed that the forestland and grassland will expand along with the increase in water utilization ratio. The quick-response surface runoff would decrease significantly due to forest and grassland expansion, which may cause an overall decreasing trend of the water yield. This indicated the unreasonable allocation of water resources may exert negative impacts on the water yield even if the water utilization ratio is increased; therefore, water resources should be reasonably allocated for different land use demand, which is critical for sustainable development. The results of this study will be informative to decision makers for sustainable water resource and land management when facing land use change and an increasing demand for water resources in the Heihe River Basin. Full article

In recent years, water scarcity and irrational utilization have become the pivotal issues for the sustainable development of river basins in China. This paper attempts to propose a new perspective for the optimization of water resources allocation in a typical river basin. In order to conduct an accurate and feasible program for water resources allocation in the water-deficient river basin, a multi-objective and multi-constraint programming model was developed by embedding land use effect as a constraint on water allocation, which was currently solely decided by water resources demand in different water use sectors. The program includes two layers, namely water allocation among different counties located in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin and among domestic, industrial, agricultural and ecological uses within one county. Empirical analysis shows that the structural change of land use has an important influence and restriction on the water resources allocation in the river basin. The least cultivated areas that ensure food security and the constraint of construction land quota have great impact on agricultural and industrial water allocation. Moreover, the quantitative change of ecological land greatly affects ecological water allocation. The results demonstrate that the optimal program calculated from land use embedded model can well predicate the actual situation of water allocation in the future. To ensure regional sustainable development, it is vital that reasonable water-saving measures in each water use sector and ecological protection policies be taken. Full article

China has been stressing the needs of promoting regional sustainable development through industrial transformation. In the northwest region of China, which is faced with both urgent socioeconomic development and fragile ecological conditions, with water scarcity being one of the major characters, the relationship between industrial transformation and water use efficiency ought to be investigated. This paper conducted an empirical analysis of industry transformation’s impact on water use efficiency by using the Input-output analysis. First, we compiled an extended Input-output table with water use account; Second, the input-output analysis model was built based on the extended Input-output table; Then, a counterfactual experiment was performed to document the water use efficiency caused by industrial transformation; Finally, water use efficiency of different sectors in both northwest region of China as a whole and its five provinces were calculated. The results show that water use efficiency of northwest region of China is improved by optimizing industrial structure. Also, sectors with low water use efficiency but huge improvement potential were found out. Then policy implications for regional sustainable development and water resources management are provided at the end of the article. Full article

Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling method, this research analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure in China. The results show that our model is feasible, and the simulation results are of a certain stability. Under the scenario analysis and projection of the relationship between the industrial structure and land use structure of the thirty-one provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, the proportions of secondary and tertiary industry in each province have been increasing; correspondingly, the proportion of agriculture has been decreasing. This means that the industrial structure of China is changing. As for land use, in general, the trend is similar to the industrial structure changes. The transformation of the structure of industrial development and land use has driven economic structure changes in China. The economic structure has an inclination to transform from agriculture to both secondary and tertiary industry. Along with industrial transformation, the cultivated land in China shows a trend of continuous decline. Empirical analysis results indicate that a decrease of cultivated land is acceptable under the scenario of economic growth in the next ten years. This shows a possibility that the economic efficiency of land use for cultivation and business services will decline, and more attention ought to be paid to increasing the economic efficiency of land use. Full article

Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth. Full article

This paper attempts to propose hybrid methodology of compiling water resource extended input-output (IO) table at county level (According to administrative structure of China, a county is subordinate to its province, and provincial level is parallel to state level of other countries). By combining Non-Survey-based RAS-technique for possible iterated results and Partial-Survey-based current situation for actual ongoing resource-consumption, we aimed to depict a more accurate structure for water resource consumption and regional economic impact analysis at a county level in the arid area. Additionally, non-parameter methodology was adopted to interpolate missing data. Since human interventions continually have impacted on the natural environment that would finally lead to over-consumption of natural resources, we introduced water consumption caused by cultivation in the Primary Industry and water usage in other industries into a local input-output matrix of Shandan County in Gansu Province, China. Evidence of empirical analysis shows that the modified IO table can more accurately describe economic structure than weighted provincial average IO table does. Moreover, industrialization is ongoing with economic diversity and continually generating water use demand even though also stimulating imports of light industrial products according to the Partial-Survey reports. It demonstrates that industrialization and increasing household consumption drive a high speed of economic growth but with a high cost of water consumption through the Secondary and Tertiary Industries, even at a far rural area. Hence, water scarcity would be a constraint on sustainable development in regions such as Shandan County when taking economic valuation of natural water consumption into account. Full article

This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC) on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA). In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity. Full article

We estimate the heat flux changes caused by the projected land transformation over the next 40 years across China to improve the understanding of the impacts of land dynamics on regional climate. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate these impacts in four representative land transformation zones, where reclamation, overgrazing, afforestation, and urbanization dominates the land use and land cover changes in each zone respectively. As indicated by the significant variance of albedo due to different land use and cover changes, different surface properties cause great spatial variance of the surface flux. From the simulation results, latent heat flux increases by 2 and 21 W/m² in the reclamation and afforestation regions respectively. On the contrary, overgrazing and urban expansion results in decrease of latent heat flux by 5 and 36 W/m² correspondingly. Urban expansion leads to an average increase of 40 W/m² of sensible heat flux in the future 40 years, while reclamation, afforestation, as well as overgrazing result in the decrease of sensible heat flux. Results also show that reclamation and overgrazing lead to net radiation decrease by approximately 4 and 7 W/m² respectively, however, afforestation and urbanization lead to net radiation increase by 6 and 3 W/m² respectively. The simulated impacts of projected HLCCs on surface energy fluxes will inform sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. Full article

Irrigated agriculture has the potential to alter regional to global climate significantly. We investigate how irrigation will affect regional climate in the future in an inland irrigation area of northern China, focusing on its effects on heat fluxes and near-surface temperature. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we compare simulations among three land cover scenarios: the control scenario (CON), the irrigation scenario (IRR), and the irrigated cropland expansion scenario (ICE). Our results show that the surface energy budgets and temperature are sensitive to changes in the extent and spatial pattern of irrigated land. Conversion to irrigated agriculture at the contemporary scale leads to an increase in annual mean latent heat fluxes of 12.10 W m⁻², a decrease in annual mean sensible heat fluxes of 8.85 W m⁻², and a decrease in annual mean temperature of 1.3 °C across the study region. Further expansion of irrigated land increases annual mean latent heat fluxes by 18.08 W m⁻², decreases annual mean sensible heat fluxes by 12.31 W m⁻², and decreases annual mean temperature by 1.7 °C. Our simulated effects of irrigation show that changes in land use management such as irrigation can be an important component of climate change and need to be considered together with greenhouse forcing in climate change assessments. Full article

Bioenergy is currently regarded as a renewable energy source with a high growth potential. Forest-based biodiesel, with the significant advantage of not competing with grain production on cultivated land, has been considered as a promising substitute for diesel fuel by many countries, including China. Consequently, extracting biodiesel from Jatropha curcas has become a growing industry. However, many key issues related to the development of this industry are still not fully resolved and the prospects for this industry are complicated. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the net energy, CO₂ emission, and cost efficiency of Jatropha biodiesel as a substitute fuel in China to help resolve some of the key issues by studying data from this region of China that is well suited to growing Jatropha. Our results show that: (1) Jatropha biodiesel is preferable for global warming mitigation over diesel fuel in terms of the carbon sink during Jatropha tree growth. (2) The net energy yield of Jatropha biodiesel is much lower than that of fossil fuel, induced by the high energy consumption during Jatropha plantation establishment and the conversion from seed oil to diesel fuel step. Therefore, the energy efficiencies of the production of Jatropha and its conversion to biodiesel need to be improved. (3) Due to current low profit and high risk in the study area, farmers have little incentive to continue or increase Jatropha production. (4) It is necessary to provide more subsidies and preferential policies for Jatropha plantations if this industry is to grow. It is also necessary for local government to set realistic objectives and make rational plans to choose proper sites for Jatropha biodiesel development and the work reported here should assist that effort. Future research focused on breading high-yield varieties, development of efficient field management systems, and detailed studies lifecycle environmental impacts analysis is required to promote biologically and economically sustainable development of Jatropha biodiesel and to assist government agencies in setting realistic objectives and appropriate and advantageous policies for the regions and the country. Full article

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have calledDynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple datasources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporatedin DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses andinfluencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during thesimulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes froma regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North Chinais incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results underthe baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the landsystem dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order tofocus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. Full article