Governments, aid organizations and researchers are struggling with the complexity of detecting and monitoring drought events, which leads to weaknesses regarding the translation of early warnings into action. Embedded in an advanced decision-support framework for Doctors without Borders (Médecins sans Frontières), this study focuses on identifying the added-value of combining different satellite-derived datasets for drought monitoring and forecasting in Ethiopia. The core of the study is the improvement of an existing drought index via methodical adaptations and the integration of various satellite-derived datasets. The resulting Enhanced Combined Drought Index (ECDI) links four input datasets (rainfall, soil moisture, land surface temperature and vegetation status). The respective weight of each input dataset is calculated for every grid point at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (roughly 28 kilometers). In the case of data gaps in one input dataset, the weights are automatically redistributed to other available variables. Ranking the years 1992 to 2014 according to the ECDI-based warning levels allows for the identification of all large-scale drought events in Ethiopia. Our results also indicate a good match between the ECDI-based drought warning levels and reported drought impacts for both the start and the end of the season. Full article

Recent warming has stimulated the productivity of boreal and Arctic vegetation by reducing temperature limitations. However, several studies have hypothesized that warming may have also increased moisture limitations because of intensified summer drought severity. Establishing the connections between warming and drought stress has been difficult because soil moisture observations are scarce. Here we use recently developed gridded datasets of moisture variability to investigate the links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes (>45°N) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982. Moisture and temperature exert a significant influence on the interannual variability of summer NDVI over about 29% (mean r² = 0.29 ± 0.16) and 43% (mean r² = 0.25 ± 0.12) of the northern vegetated land, respectively. Rapid summer warming since the late 1980s (~0.7 °C) has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer drought severity, but contrary to earlier suggestions it has not changed the dominant climate controls of NDVI over time. Furthermore, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and NDVI in moisture-sensitive regions of the boreal forest. In boreal North America, forest NDVI declines are more consistent with reduced snowpack rather than with temperature-induced increases in evaporative demand as suggested in earlier studies. Moreover, summer NDVI variability over about 28% of the northern vegetated land is not significantly associated with moisture or temperature variability, yet most of this land shows increasing NDVI trends. These results suggest that changes in snow accumulation and melt, together with other possibly non-climatic factors are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades. Full article

Bush encroachment is a form of land degradation prominent worldwide, but particularly present in semi-arid areas. In this study, we mapped the spatial distribution of the two encroacher species, Acacia mellifera and Acacia reficiens,in Central Namibia, based on their different phenological behavior. We used constrained principal curves to extract a one dimensional gradient of phenological change from two hyperspectral images taken in different seasons. Field measurements of species composition and cover values were statistically related to bi-temporal differences in hyperspectral vegetation indices in a direct gradient analysis. The extracted gradient reflected the relationship between species composition and cover values, and the phenological pattern as captured by the image data. Cover values of four dominant plant species were mapped and species responses along the phenological gradient were interpreted. Full article

Automated, image based methods for the retrieval of vegetation biophysical and biochemical variables are often hampered by the lack of a priori knowledge about land cover and phenology, which makes the retrieval a highly underdetermined problem. This study addresses this problem by presenting a novel approach, called CRASh, for the concurrent retrieval of leaf area index, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf dry matter content from high resolution solar reflective earth observation data. CRASh, which is based on the inversion of the combined PROSPECT+SAILh radiative transfer model (RTM), explores the benefits of combining semi-empirical and physically based approaches. The approach exploits novel ways to address the underdetermined problem in the context of an automated retrieval from mono-temporal high resolution data. To regularize the inverse problem in the variable domain, RTM inversion is coupled with an automated land cover classification. Model inversion is based on a two step lookup table (LUT) approach: First, a range of possible solutions is selected from a previously calculated LUT based on the analogy between measured and simulated reflectance. The final solution is determined from this subset by minimizing the difference between the variables used to simulate the spectra contained in the reduced LUT and a first guess of the solution. This first guess of the variables is derived from predictive semi-empirical relationships between classical vegetation indices and the single variables. Additional spectral regularization is obtained by the use of hyperspectral data. Results show that estimates obtained with CRASh are significantly more accurate than those obtained with a tested conventional RTM inversion and semi-empirical approach. Accuracies obtained in this study are comparable to the results obtained by various authors for better constrained inversions that assume more a priori information. The completely automated and image-based nature of the approach facilitates its use in operational chains for upcoming high resolution airborne and spaceborne imaging spectrometers. Full article