Special Issue "System Dynamics Simulation of Environmental and Resource Sustainability"

Guest Editor
Dr. Richard G. Dudley
21 Etna Lane, Etna, New York 13062, USA
E-Mail:
Interests: system dynamics modeling; fishery management; small scale fisheries; natural resources management; international development; conservation

Guest Editor
Dr. Allyson Beall
Waters of the West, University of Idaho, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman WA 99164-2812, USA
E-Mail:
Interests: system dynamics; participatory environmental modeling; environmental modeling; interdisciplinary modeling

Dear Colleagues,

Sustainability is a complex subject -- an idea meaning many things to many people. Discussion of specific suggestions, plans, or actions which might lead to sustainable outcomes can become bogged down when details of these are viewed by different stakeholders with differing opinions. If such discussions can be carried out within a clear, agreed upon, framework, then the ability to reach reasonable consensus can be enhanced. Of the tools available to build that framework, system dynamics modeling stands out. It is well established, is based on a solid mathematical footing, is flexible, and has well developed protocols for model building, verification, and analysis. In particular, system dynamics modeling is an ideal tool for examining complex systems characterized by feedbacks and delayed effects, characteristics that underlie so many sustainably issues.

System dynamics modeling was first used to address sustainability in the Limits to Growth models of the early 1970s. Since then system dynamics modeling has become more sophisticated and easier to use. Over the same period sustainability has become an influential paradigm for examining possible future scenarios. As a consequence this special issue is dedicated to highlighting works which examine sustainability through the lens of system dynamics.

Dr. Allyson Beall
Dr. Richard G. Dudley
Guest Editors

• simulating sustainability
• simulation
• environmental modeling
• system dynamics
• system dynamics modeling
• natural resource simulation

Tentative Title: Systems Dynamics Approach to Reduce Carbon Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation at Landscape Level
Authors: Herry Purnomo ^1,2 et al.
Affiliations: ¹ Center for International Forestry Researc, P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia; E-Mail: H.PURNOMO@CGIAR.ORG
² Bogor Agricultural University, Jl. Raya Darmaga Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor 16680, West Java, Indonesia
Abstract: Forest and land use change contribute 18% of greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming. Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen increased political commitment to reduce emission from deforestation and degradation and to enhance carbon stock (REDD+). We believe this support will continue at COP 16 Mexico. However, various actors including local communities may or may not support REDD+ depending among others on impacts they will perceive. To explore this situation, a systems dynamics model is being developed. This model comprises sectors of landscape, population, local livelihoods, environmental services and government incomes. The model simulates landscape and carbon dynamics and its impact to different actors. We compare among other "business as usual" scenario with various REDD+ scenarios. The simulation results are examined by criteria of effectiveness in carbon emission reduction, cost efficiency, equity among involved stakeholders and co-benefit of other activities. This study takes Jambi Province of Indonesia as a case study and compare with cases in Vietnam and Cameroon. The paper recommends plausible REDD+ institutional arrangement scenarios which make REDD+ work at landscape level.
Keywords: landscape; carbon emission; actors; REDD+; institutional arrangement