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Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk
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Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk

A special issue of Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (ISSN 2077-1312).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 May 2018) | Viewed by 89765

Printed Edition Available!
A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Roshanka Ranasinghe

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
1. Department of Water Science and Engineering, IHE Delft, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands
2. Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands
Interests: coastal engineering; morphodynamic modelling; coastal erosion; climate change; coastal risk
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Ruben Jongejan

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
1. Jongejan RMC, Schoolstraat 4, 2611 HS Delft, The Netherlands
2. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Projected climate change driven variations in mean sea level (i.e., Sea level rise), wave conditions, storm surge, and riverflow will affect the coastal zone in many ways. On the other hand, the coastal zone is the most heavily populated and developed land zone in the world with rapid expansions in settlements, urbanization, infrastructure, economic activities and tourism.

The combination of coastal climate change impacts and their effect on the ever increasing human utilization of the coastal zone will invariably result in increasing coastal risk in the coming decades. However, while the economic damage (potential consequence) that can be caused by CC driven coastal inundation and erosion (potential hazard) is likely to increase, foregoing land-use opportunities in coastal regions is also costly (opportunity cost).  Thus, a ‘zero risk’-policy could have severe economic consequences, while high risk policies could lead to risks that are unacceptable to society and individuals. Developing appropriate policies and strategies for land-use planning purposes is, therefore, a delicate balancing act.  

To avoid unacceptable future risks, due to coastal hazards and/or sub-optimal land use, it is imperative that risk informed and sustainable coastal planning/management strategies are implemented sooner rather than later. This requires comprehensive coastal risk assessments which combine state-of-the-art consequence (or damage) modelling and coastal hazard modelling. Apart from being of crucial importance to coastal managers/planners, this type of risk quantification will also be invaluable to the insurance and re-insurance industries for insurance pricing, which may have a follow-on effect on coastal property values. However, the present level of knowledge on generally applicable coastal hazard and risk assessment approaches, especially at local scale (~10 km) is rather limited. To help bridge this knowledge gap, this Special Issue invites original scientific contributions focusing on:

  • Projections of climate change driven variations in coastal forcing (SLR, storm surge, waves)
  • Assessment of climate change driven physical impacts on coasts
  • Quantifying economic and/or environmental risk in coastal zones

Research articles, review articles, case studies and perspectives are welcome to this Special Issue. We look forward to receiving original and inspiring contributions.

Prof. Roshanka Ranasinghe
Dr. Ruben Jongejan
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Published Papers (14 papers)

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Editorial

Jump to: Research, Review

4 pages, 171 KiB  
Editorial
Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk
by Roshanka Ranasinghe and Ruben Jongejan
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040141 - 19 Nov 2018
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2935
Abstract
Projected climate change driven variations in mean sea level (i. [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)

Research

Jump to: Editorial, Review

32 pages, 16978 KiB  
Article
Regional Scale Risk-Informed Land-Use Planning Using Probabilistic Coastline Recession Modelling and Economical Optimisation: East Coast of Sri Lanka
by Ali Dastgheib, Ruben Jongejan, Mangala Wickramanayake and Roshanka Ranasinghe
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040120 - 15 Oct 2018
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 4114
Abstract
One of the measures that has been implemented widely to adapt to the effect of climate change in coastal zones is the implementation of set-back lines. The traditional approach of determining set-back lines is likely to be conservative, and thus pose unnecessary constraints [...] Read more.
One of the measures that has been implemented widely to adapt to the effect of climate change in coastal zones is the implementation of set-back lines. The traditional approach of determining set-back lines is likely to be conservative, and thus pose unnecessary constraints on coastal zone development and fully utilising the potential of these high-return areas. In this study, we apply a newly developed risk-informed approach to determine the coastal set-back line at regional scale in a poor data environment. This approach aims to find the economic optimum by balancing the (potential) economic gain from investing in coastal zones and the risk of coastal retreat due to sea level rise and storm erosion. This application focusses on the east coast of Sri Lanka, which is experiencing rapid economic growth on one hand and severe beach erosion on the other hand. This area of Sri Lanka is a highly data-poor environment, and the data is mostly available from global databases and very limited measurement campaigns. Probabilistic estimates of coastline retreat are obtained from the application of Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) framework. Economic data, such as the discount rate, rate of return of investment, cost of damage, etc., are collated from existing estimates/reports for the area. The main outcome of this study is a series of maps indicating the economically optimal set-back line (EOSL) for the ~200-km-long coastal region. The EOSL is established for the year 2025 to provide a stable basis for land-use planning decisions over the next two decades or so. The EOSLs thus determined range between 12 m and 175 m from the coastline. Sensitivity analyses show that strong variations in key economic parameters such as the discount rate have a disproportionately small impact on the EOSL. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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30 pages, 5083 KiB  
Article
Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate
by Panagiota Galiatsatou, Christos Makris and Panayotis Prinos
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030092 - 02 Aug 2018
Cited by 20 | Viewed by 7162
Abstract
The present work aims at presenting an approach on implementing appropriate mitigation measures for the upgrade of rubble mound breakwaters protecting harbors and/or marinas against increasing future marine hazards and related escalating exposure to downtime risks. This approach is based on the reliability [...] Read more.
The present work aims at presenting an approach on implementing appropriate mitigation measures for the upgrade of rubble mound breakwaters protecting harbors and/or marinas against increasing future marine hazards and related escalating exposure to downtime risks. This approach is based on the reliability analysis of the studied structure coupled with economic optimization techniques. It includes the construction of probability distribution functions for all the stochastic variables of the marine climate (waves, storm surges, and sea level rise) for present and future conditions, the suggestion of different mitigation options for upgrading, the construction of a fault tree providing a logical succession of all events that lead to port downtime for each alternative mitigation option, and conclusively, the testing of a large number of possible alternative geometries for each option. A single solution is selected from the total sample of acceptable geometries for each upgrading concept that satisfy a probabilistic constraint in order to minimize the total costs of protection. The upgrading options considered in the present work include the construction or enhancement of a crown wall on the breakwater crest, the addition of the third layer of rocks above the primary armor layer of the breakwater (combined with crest elements), the attachment of a berm on the primary armor layer, and the construction of a detached low-crested structure in front of the breakwater. The proposed methodology is applied to an indicative rubble mound breakwater with an existing superstructure. The construction of a berm on the existing primary armor layer of the studied breakwater (port of Deauville, France), seems to be advantageous in terms of optimized total costs compared to other mitigation options. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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23 pages, 5840 KiB  
Article
Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coarse Scale Marsh Migration on Storm Surge Hydrodynamics and Waves on Coastal Protected Areas in the Chesapeake Bay
by Alayna Bigalbal, Ali M. Rezaie, Juan L. Garzon and Celso M. Ferreira
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030086 - 16 Jul 2018
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4924
Abstract
The increasing rate of sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to coastal lands and natural resources, especially affecting natural preserves and protected areas along the coast. These impacts are likely to exacerbate when combined with storm surges. It is also expected [...] Read more.
The increasing rate of sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to coastal lands and natural resources, especially affecting natural preserves and protected areas along the coast. These impacts are likely to exacerbate when combined with storm surges. It is also expected that SLR will cause spatial reduction and migration of coastal wetland and marsh ecosystems, which are common in the natural preserves. This study evaluates the potential impacts of SLR and marsh migration on the hydrodynamics and waves conditions inside natural protected areas during storm surge. The study focused on four protected areas located in different areas of the Chesapeake Bay representing different hydrodynamic regimes. Historical and synthetic storms are simulated using a coupled storm surge (ADCIRC) and wave (SWAN) model for the Bay region for current condition and future scenarios. The future scenarios include different rates of local SLR projections (0.48 m, 0.97 m, 1.68 m, and 2.31 m) and potential land use changes due to SLR driven marsh migration, which is discretized in the selected preserve areas in a coarse scale. The results showed a linear increase of maximum water depth with respect to SLR inside the protected areas. However, the inundation extent, the maximum wave heights, and the current velocities inside the coastal protected areas showed a non-linear relationship with SLR, indicating that the combined impacts of storm surge, SLR, and marsh migration depend on multiple factors such as storm track, intensity, local topography, and locations of coastal protected areas. Furthermore, the impacts of SLR were significantly greater after a 1 m threshold of rise, suggesting the presence of a critical limit for conservation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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12 pages, 1406 KiB  
Article
Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets
by Janaka Bamunawala, Shreedhar Maskey, Trang Minh Duong and Ad Van der Spek
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030079 - 03 Jul 2018
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3457
Abstract
The sediment budget associated with future coastline change in the vicinity of tidal inlets consists of four components; sea level rise-driven landward movement of the coastline (i.e., the Bruun effect), basin infilling effect due to sea level rise-induced increase in accommodation space, basin [...] Read more.
The sediment budget associated with future coastline change in the vicinity of tidal inlets consists of four components; sea level rise-driven landward movement of the coastline (i.e., the Bruun effect), basin infilling effect due to sea level rise-induced increase in accommodation space, basin volume change due to variation in river discharge, and coastline change caused by change in fluvial sediment supply. These four components are affected by climate change and/or anthropogenic impacts. Despite this understanding, holistic modelling techniques that account for all the aforementioned processes under both climate change and anthropogenic influences are lacking. This manuscript presents the applications of a newly-developed reduced complexity modelling approach that accounts for both climate change and anthropogenically-driven impacts on future coastline changes. Modelled results corresponding to the year 2100 indicate considerable coastline recessions at Wilson Inlet (152 m) and the Swan River system (168 m) in Australia and Tu Hien Inlet (305 m) and Thuan An Inlet (148 m) in Vietnam. These results demonstrate that coastline models should incorporate both climate change and anthropogenic impacts to quantify future changes in fluvial sediment supply to coasts to achieve better estimates of total coastline changes at tidal inlets. Omission of these impacts is one of the major drawbacks in all the existing coastline models that simulate future coastline changes at tidal inlets. A comparison of these modelled future coastline changes with the predictions made by a relevant existing modelling technique (Scale Aggregated Model for Inlet-interrupted Coasts (SMIC)) indicates that the latter method overestimates total coastline recessions at the Swan River system, and the Tu Hien and Thuan An Inlets by 7%, 10%, and 30%, respectively, underlining the significance of integrating both climate change and anthropogenic impacts to assess future coastline changes at tidal inlets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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19 pages, 4422 KiB  
Article
Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts
by Li Erikson, Patrick Barnard, Andrea O’Neill, Nathan Wood, Jeanne Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering and Amy Foxgrover
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030076 - 02 Jul 2018
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 6393
Abstract
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales [...] Read more.
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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28 pages, 7300 KiB  
Article
Failure of Grass Covered Flood Defences with Roads on Top Due to Wave Overtopping: A Probabilistic Assessment Method
by Juan P. Aguilar-López, Jord J. Warmink, Anouk Bomers, Ralph M. J. Schielen and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030074 - 22 Jun 2018
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 10210
Abstract
Hard structures, i.e., roads, are commonly found over flood defences, such as dikes, in order to ensure access and connectivity between flood protected areas. Several climate change future scenario studies have concluded that flood defences will be required to withstand more severe storms [...] Read more.
Hard structures, i.e., roads, are commonly found over flood defences, such as dikes, in order to ensure access and connectivity between flood protected areas. Several climate change future scenario studies have concluded that flood defences will be required to withstand more severe storms than the ones used for their original design. Therefore, this paper presents a probabilistic methodology to assess the effect of a road on top of a dike: it gives the failure probability of the grass cover due to wave overtopping over a wide range of design storms. The methodology was developed by building two different dike configurations in computational fluid dynamics Navier–Stokes solution software; one with a road on top and one without a road. Both models were validated with experimental data collected from field-scale experiments. Later, both models were used to produce data sets for training simpler and faster emulators. These emulators were coupled to a simplified erosion model which allowed testing storm scenarios which resulted in local scouring conditioned statistical failure probabilities. From these results it was estimated that the dike with a road has higher probabilities (5 × 10−5 > Pf >1 × 10−4) of failure than a dike without a road (Pf < 1 × 10−6) if realistic grass quality spatial distributions were assumed. The coupled emulator-erosion model was able to yield realistic probabilities, given all the uncertainties in the modelling process and it seems to be a promising tool for quantifying grass cover erosion failure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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18 pages, 4626 KiB  
Article
Modelling Hydrodynamic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wave-Dominated Australian Estuaries with Differing Geomorphology
by Kristian Kumbier, Rafael C. Carvalho and Colin D. Woodroffe
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020066 - 05 Jun 2018
Cited by 25 | Viewed by 5658
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) will affect the hydrodynamics and flooding characteristics of estuaries which are a function of the geomorphology of particular estuarine systems. This study presents a numerical modelling of coastal flooding due to drivers such as spring-tides, storm surges and river inflows [...] Read more.
Sea-level rise (SLR) will affect the hydrodynamics and flooding characteristics of estuaries which are a function of the geomorphology of particular estuarine systems. This study presents a numerical modelling of coastal flooding due to drivers such as spring-tides, storm surges and river inflows and examines how these will change under sea-level increases of 0.4 m and 0.9 m for two estuaries that are at different geomorphological evolutionary stages of infill. Our results demonstrate that estuarine response to SLR varies between different types of estuaries, and detailed modelling is necessary to understand the nature and extent of inundation in response to SLR. Comparison of modelling results indicates that floodplain elevation is fundamental in order to identify the most vulnerable systems and estimate how inundation extents and depths may change in the future. Floodplains in mature estuarine systems may drown and experience a considerable increase in inundation depths once a certain threshold in elevation has been exceeded. By contrast, immature estuarine systems may be subject to increases in relative inundation extent and substantial changes in hydrodynamics such as tidal range and current velocity. The unique nature of estuaries does not allow for generalisations; however, classifications of estuarine geomorphology could indicate how certain types of estuary may respond to SLR. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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31 pages, 7006 KiB  
Article
Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoS Model
by Andrea C. O’Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Jonathan A. Warrick, Amy C. Foxgrover and Jessica Lovering
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020059 - 24 May 2018
Cited by 27 | Viewed by 6568
Abstract
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify [...] Read more.
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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19 pages, 8321 KiB  
Article
An Effective Modelling Approach to Support Probabilistic Flood Forecasting in Coastal Cities—Case Study: Can Tho, Mekong Delta, Vietnam
by Hieu Ngo, Assela Pathirana, Chris Zevenbergen and Roshanka Ranasinghe
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020055 - 11 May 2018
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5138
Abstract
Probabilistic flood forecasting requires flood models that are simple and fast. Many of the modelling applications in the literature tend to be complex and slow, making them unsuitable for probabilistic applications which require thousands of individual simulations. This article focusses on the development [...] Read more.
Probabilistic flood forecasting requires flood models that are simple and fast. Many of the modelling applications in the literature tend to be complex and slow, making them unsuitable for probabilistic applications which require thousands of individual simulations. This article focusses on the development of such a modelling approach to support probabilistic assessment of flood hazards, while accounting for forcing and system uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of using the open-source SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), focussing on Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model which is generally used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality and its application for probabilistic riverflow modelling is atypical. In this study, a detailed SWMM model of the entire Mekong Delta was built based on an existing ISIS model containing 575 nodes and 592 links of the same study area. The detailed SWMM model was then systematically reduced by strategically removing nodes and links to eventually arrive at a level of detail that provides sufficiently accurate predictions of water levels for Can Tho for the purpose of simulating urban flooding, which is the target diagnostic of this study. After a comprehensive assessment (based on trials with the varying levels of complexity), a much reduced SWMM model comprising 37 nodes and 40 links was determined to be able to provide a sufficiently accurate result while being fast enough to support probabilistic future flood forecasting and, further, to support flood risk reduction management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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22 pages, 2974 KiB  
Article
Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping of Sea Dikes with Foreshores including Infragravity Waves and Morphological Changes: Westkapelle Case Study
by Patrick Oosterlo, Robert Timothy McCall, Vincent Vuik, Bas Hofland, Jentsje Wouter Van der Meer and Sebastiaan Nicolaas Jonkman
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020048 - 01 May 2018
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4593
Abstract
Shallow foreshores in front of coastal dikes can reduce the probability of dike failure due to wave overtopping. A probabilistic model framework is presented, which is capable of including complex hydrodynamics like infragravity waves, and morphological changes of a sandy foreshore during severe [...] Read more.
Shallow foreshores in front of coastal dikes can reduce the probability of dike failure due to wave overtopping. A probabilistic model framework is presented, which is capable of including complex hydrodynamics like infragravity waves, and morphological changes of a sandy foreshore during severe storms in the calculations of the probability of dike failure due to wave overtopping. The method is applied to a test case based on the Westkapelle sea defence in The Netherlands, a hybrid defence consisting of a dike with a sandy foreshore. The model framework consists of the process-based hydrological and morphological model XBeach, probabilistic overtopping equations (EurOtop) and the level III fully probabilistic method ADIS. By using the fully probabilistic level III method ADIS, the number of simulations necessary is greatly reduced, which allows for the use of more advanced and detailed hydro- and morphodynamic models. The framework is able to compute the probability of failure with up to 15 stochastic variables and is able to describe feasible physical processes. Furthermore, the framework is completely modular, which means that any model or equation can be plugged into the framework, whenever updated models with improved representation of the physics or increases in computational power become available. The model framework as described in this paper, includes more physical processes and stochastic variables in the determination of the probability of dike failure due to wave overtopping, compared to the currently used methods in The Netherlands. For the here considered case, the complex hydrodynamics like infragravity waves and wave set-up need to be included in the calculations, because they appeared to have a large influence on the probability of failure. Morphological changes of the foreshore during a severe storm appeared to have less influence on the probability of failure for this case. It is recommended to apply the framework to other cases as well, to determine if the effects of complex hydrodynamics as infragravity waves and morphological changes on the probability of sea dike failure due to wave overtopping as found in this paper hold for other cases as well. Furthermore, it is recommended to investigate broader use of the method, e.g., for safety assessment, reliability analysis and design. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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19 pages, 5399 KiB  
Article
How Well Do AR5 Sea Surface-Height Model Projections Match Observational Rates of Sea-Level Rise at the Regional Scale?
by Phil J. Watson
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010011 - 01 Feb 2018
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 5455
Abstract
The reliance upon and importance of climate models continues to grow in line with strengthening evidence of a changing climate system and the necessity to provide credible projections for risk assessment to guide policy development, mitigation and adaptation responses. The utility of the [...] Read more.
The reliance upon and importance of climate models continues to grow in line with strengthening evidence of a changing climate system and the necessity to provide credible projections for risk assessment to guide policy development, mitigation and adaptation responses. The utility of the models to project regional rates of sea-level rise over the course of the 21st century is reliant on evaluating model outputs against global observational data (principally altimetry products). This study compares rates of sea-level rise from observational data records (tide gauges) against the ensemble mean of the model-projection products used in AR5 at 19 sites around the world over the decade of common data coverage (2007–2016) using enhanced time-series analysis techniques. Although it could be concluded that the observational and model-projected average velocity agree (95% confidence level (CL)), error margins are comparatively wide, masking the fact that the mean velocity for the model-projection products exceed observational records for nearly all stations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments, and are likely in the range of 1.6–2.5 mm/year. The analysis might provide an early warning sign that the evaluation of ocean model components with respect to projected mean sea level could be relevantly improved. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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8 pages, 2379 KiB  
Article
Two Centuries of Climate Change and Climate Variability, East Coast Australia
by Peter Helman and Rodger Tomlinson
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010003 - 03 Jan 2018
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4796
Abstract
On the east Australian coast, climate change is expressed as a slowly rising sea level. Analysis of records, dating back over two centuries, also shows oscillating multidecadal ‘storm’ and ‘drought’ dominated climate periods that are distinct from long-term climate change. Climate variability, as [...] Read more.
On the east Australian coast, climate change is expressed as a slowly rising sea level. Analysis of records, dating back over two centuries, also shows oscillating multidecadal ‘storm’ and ‘drought’ dominated climate periods that are distinct from long-term climate change. Climate variability, as expressed by these distinct multidecadal periods, is generally associated with phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Index (IPO). Two centuries of climate and coastline response are examined for the central east coast of Australia, between Fraser Island and Coffs Harbour. The long record has been compiled by analysing a wide range of indicators and observations, including: historical accounts, storm records, sea level trends, assessment of storm erosion faces, and coastal movement in relation to fixed monuments, surveys, and maps. Periods of suppressed sea level, beach accretion, and drought were found to be associated with strongly positive IPO. Periods of higher sea level, increased storminess, and beach erosion were associated with strongly negative IPO. Understanding the behaviour of climate variability over different timescales has the potential to improve the understanding of, and responses to, climate change. This will be important in the sustainable management of geomorphic and ecological systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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Review

Jump to: Editorial, Research

18 pages, 975 KiB  
Review
Quantifying Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Review
by Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Tatiana Filatova, Ali Dastgheib, Erik De Ruyter van Steveninck and Roshanka Ranasinghe
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010005 - 09 Jan 2018
Cited by 100 | Viewed by 16700
Abstract
The complexity of quantifying ecosystem services in monetary terms has long been a challenging issue for economists and ecologists. Many case specific valuation studies have been carried out in various parts of the World. Yet, a coherent review on the valuation of coastal [...] Read more.
The complexity of quantifying ecosystem services in monetary terms has long been a challenging issue for economists and ecologists. Many case specific valuation studies have been carried out in various parts of the World. Yet, a coherent review on the valuation of coastal ecosystem services (CES), which systematically describes fundamental concepts, analyzes reported applications, and addresses the issue of climate change (CC) impacts on the monetary value of CES is still lacking. Here, we take a step towards addressing this knowledge gap by pursuing a coherent review that aims to provide policy makers and researchers in multidisciplinary teams with a summary of the state-of-the-art and a guideline on the process of economic valuation of CES and potential changes in these values due to CC impacts. The article highlights the main concepts of CES valuation studies and offers a systematic analysis of the best practices by analyzing two global scale and 30 selected local and regional case studies, in which different CES have been valued. Our analysis shows that coral reefs and mangroves are among the most frequently valued ecosystems, while sea-grass beds are the least considered ones. Currently, tourism and recreation services as well as storm protection are two of the most considered services representing higher estimated value than other CES. In terms of the valuation techniques used, avoided damage, replacement and substitute cost method as well as stated preference method are among the most commonly used valuation techniques. Following the above analysis, we propose a methodological framework that provides step-wise guidance and better insight into the linkages between climate change impacts and the monetary value of CES. This highlights two main types of CC impacts on CES: one being the climate regulation services of coastal ecosystems, and the other being the monetary value of services, which is subject to substantial uncertainty. Finally, a systematic four-step approach is proposed to effectively monetize potential CC driven variations in the value of CES. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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