J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(2), 80-109; doi:10.3390/jrfm7020080 - published online 25 June 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly Gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(2), 67-79; doi:10.3390/jrfm7020067 - published online 21 May 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been a key theory in financial economics since the 1960s. One of its main contributions is to attempt to identify how the risk of a particular stock is related to the risk of the overall stock market using the risk measure Beta. If the relationship between an individual stock’s returns and the returns of the market exhibit heteroskedasticity, then the estimates of Beta for different quantiles of the relationship can be quite different. The behavioral ideas first proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), which they called prospect theory, postulate that: (i) people exhibit “loss-aversion” in a gain frame; and (ii) people exhibit “risk-seeking” in a loss frame. If this is true, people could prefer lower Beta stocks after they have experienced a gain and higher Beta stocks after they have experienced a loss. Stocks that exhibit converging heteroskedasticity (22.2% of our sample) should be preferred by investors, and stocks that exhibit diverging heteroskedasticity (12.6% of our sample) should not be preferred. Investors may be able to benefit by choosing portfolios that are more closely aligned with their preferences.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(2), 45-66; doi:10.3390/jrfm7020045 - published online 8 May 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO) approach and the stochastic dominance (SD) test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors’ viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification strategy dominates the international diversification strategy at a lower risk level and the reverse is true at a higher risk level. Our SD analysis shows that there is no arbitrage opportunity between international and domestic stock markets; domestically diversified portfolios with smaller risk dominate internationally diversified portfolios with larger risk and vice versa; and at the same risk level, there is no difference between the domestically and internationally diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, we cannot find any domestically diversified portfolios that stochastically dominate all internationally diversified portfolios, but we find some internationally diversified portfolios with small risk that dominate all the domestically diversified portfolios.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(2), 28-44; doi:10.3390/jrfm7020028 - published online 15 April 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: In this study, we examine whether the levels and structures of top executive compensation vary discernibly with different levels of board independence. We also examine how the newly mandated adoption of the remuneration committee (RC) in Taiwan affects the board independence-executive pay relation. The mandatory establishment of RC for Taiwanese public firms, starting in 2011, is intended to strengthen the reasonableness and effectiveness of the executive compensation structure; thus, it is timely and of interest for practitioners and regulators to understand whether the establishment of RCs can effectively discipline top executive compensation policies. We first find that CEOs of firms that do not appoint independent directors have greater levels of annual pay than is the case for firms that have appointed independent directors, after controlling for the effect of CEO pay determinants. Second, we find that CEO pay for early RC adopters is more closely related to firm performance. Third, we find that the establishing of RCs may decrease CEO pay and enhance the pay-performance association, in particular for firms that have not appointed independent directors; however, this effect is not found to be statistically significant.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(1), 13-27; doi:10.3390/jrfm7010013 - published online 25 March 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: Bharath and Shumway (2008) provide evidence that shows that it is the functional form of Merton’s (1974) distance to default (DD) model that makes it useful and important for predicting defaults. In this paper, we investigate whether the default predictability of the Merton DD model would be affected by taking investors’ ambiguity aversion into consideration. The Cox proportional hazard model is used to compare the forecasting power of Bharath and Shumway’s naive model, which retains the functional form of the Merton DD model and computes the default probability in a naive way, with our new model, which treats investors’ ambiguity aversion as additional information. We provide evidence to show that our new model performs better than Bharath and Shumway’s naive model. In addition, our empirical results show that the statistical significance of Bharath and Shumway’s naive default probability is retained in the credit default swap (CDS) spread regressions, though the sign of the coefficient is changed. However, both the sign and the statistical significance of our model are retained in the CDS spread regressions.
J. Risk Financial Manag.2014, 7(1), 1-12; doi:10.3390/jrfm7010001 - published online 26 February 2014 Show/Hide Abstract
Abstract: Chong and Ng (2008) find that the Moving Average Convergence–Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) rules can generate excess return in the London Stock Exchange. This paper revisits the performance of the two trading rules in the stock markets of five other OECD countries. It is found that the MACD(12,26,0) and RSI(21,50) rules consistently generate significant abnormal returns in the Milan Comit General and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. In addition, the RSI(14,30/70) rule is also profitable in the Dow Jones Industrials Index. The results shed some light on investors’ belief in these two technical indicators in different developed markets.