Open AccessArticle
Sub-Ensemble Coastal Flood Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 59; doi:10.3390/jmse5040059 (registering DOI) -
Abstract
In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability
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In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster skill score. Additional sub-ensemble and composite skill scores are proposed for assessing the forecast skill of a clustered ensemble forecast. A recently proposed method for statistically increasing the number of ensemble members is used to improve sub-ensemble probabilistic estimates. Through the application of the proposed methodology to Sandy coastal flood reforecasts, it is demonstrated that statistics computed using only ensemble members belonging to a specific cluster are more representative than those computed using all ensemble members simultaneously. A cluster skill-cluster uncertainty index relationship is identified, which is the cluster analog of the documented spread-skill relationship. Two sub-ensemble skill scores are shown to be positively correlated with cluster forecast skill, suggesting that skillfully forecasting the cluster into which the observation will fall is important to overall forecast skill. The identified relationships also suggest that the number of ensemble members within in each cluster can be used as guidance for assessing the potential for forecast error. The inevitable existence of ensemble member clusters in tidally dominated total water level prediction systems suggests that clustering is a necessary post-processing step for producing representative and skillful total water level forecasts. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Effect of Partial Use of Venice Flood Barriers
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 58; doi:10.3390/jmse5040058 -
Abstract
The Venice lagoon is one of the most important areas in Italy because of its history and its particular structure and form. In order to defend Venice and other towns within the lagoon from severe floods, the Italian Government promotes a project that
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The Venice lagoon is one of the most important areas in Italy because of its history and its particular structure and form. In order to defend Venice and other towns within the lagoon from severe floods, the Italian Government promotes a project that includes, among other measures, the construction of the Experimental Electromechanical Module (MoSE). The MoSE is a system of mobile gates installed at the lagoon inlets that are able to temporarily isolate the Venetian lagoon from the Adriatic Sea during severe storm surge events, thus ensuring acceptable safeguarding water levels. To prevent interference between the barriers and the normal port activities, locks have been constructed at each lagoon inlet. However, the use of such locks causes a slowdown in maritime traffic. In order to evaluate a means of reducing such interference during the flooding events characterized by high but not extreme water levels, the present paper demonstrates, by means of a numerical approach, that one of the three inlets can be left open so as to ensure the transit of the vessels. The present paper also points out the meteorological conditions for which the safeguarding water levels of the lagoon are not exceeded when closing only two inlets. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Transmission of Low-Frequency Acoustic Waves in Seawater Piping Systems with Periodical and Adjustable Helmholtz Resonator
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 56; doi:10.3390/jmse5040056 -
Abstract
The characteristics of acoustic wave transmitting in a metamaterial-type seawater piping system are studied. The metamaterial pipe, which consists of a uniform pipe with air-water chamber Helmholtz resonators (HRs) mounted periodically along its axial direction, could generate a wide band gap in the
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The characteristics of acoustic wave transmitting in a metamaterial-type seawater piping system are studied. The metamaterial pipe, which consists of a uniform pipe with air-water chamber Helmholtz resonators (HRs) mounted periodically along its axial direction, could generate a wide band gap in the low-frequency range, rendering the propagation of low-frequency acoustic waves in the piping system dampened spatially. Increasing the air volume in the Helmholtz chamber would result in a sharply decrease in the central frequency of the resonant gap and an extension in the bandwidth in the beginning, yet very slowly as the air volume is further augmented. Acoustic waves will experience a small amount of energy loss if the acoustic–structure interaction effect is considered. Also, the structure-borne sound will be induced because of the interaction effects. High pressure loadings on the system may bring in a shrink in the band gap; nevertheless, the features of broad band gaps of the system is still be maintained. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Regime Changes in Global Sea Surface Salinity Trend
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 57; doi:10.3390/jmse5040057 -
Abstract
Recent studies have shown significant sea surface salinity (SSS) changes at scales ranging from regional to global. In this study, we estimate global salinity means and trends using historical (1950–2014) SSS data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre objectively analyzed monthly fields
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Recent studies have shown significant sea surface salinity (SSS) changes at scales ranging from regional to global. In this study, we estimate global salinity means and trends using historical (1950–2014) SSS data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre objectively analyzed monthly fields and recent data from the SMOS satellite (2010–2014). We separate the different components (regimes) of the global surface salinity by fitting a Gaussian Mixture Model to the data and using expectation–maximization to distinguish the means and trends of the data. The procedure uses a non-subjective method (Bayesian information criterion) to extract the optimal number of means and trends. The results show the presence of three separate regimes: Regime A (1950–1990) is characterized by small trend magnitudes; Regime B (1990–2009) exhibited enhanced trends; and Regime C (2009–2014) with significantly larger trend magnitudes. The salinity differences between regime means were around 0.01. The trend acceleration could be related to an enhanced global hydrological cycle or to a change in the sampling methodology. Understanding past SSS changes can provide insight into future climate evolution by complementing the knowledge acquired in recent decades from long-term temperature record analyses. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
A Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Landcover and Coastal Changes at Wandandian Delta System, Southeastern Australia
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 55; doi:10.3390/jmse5040055 -
Abstract
Large numbers of people live along and depend upon the world’s coastal resources. Human modifications of the coastal zone, in combination with climate induced environmental changes, have had a major effect on the natural ecological systems. GIS analysis of remote sensed data, combined
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Large numbers of people live along and depend upon the world’s coastal resources. Human modifications of the coastal zone, in combination with climate induced environmental changes, have had a major effect on the natural ecological systems. GIS analysis of remote sensed data, combined with fieldwork and laboratory tests, can be used to determine the resultant eco-geomorphic changes that need to be managed sustainably on a worldwide scale. Modelling the eco-geomorphic dynamics between 1949 and 2016 on the Wandandian Creek delta (southeastern NSW, Australia) provides a case study of management options for such coastal resources. Results from the Wandandian Creek delta show that sand/silt sediment derived from the partially (22%) modified terrestrial catchment has prograded into the wave-dominated St. Georges Basin where it is impacted by nearshore processes. Clear spatio-temporal growth of the areal extent and elevation of the deltaic levees and sandspits, with their associated mangroves and saltmarshes, has occurred over the past 65 years. Although the growth rate has fluctuated during the study period, due to flood events in 1974, 1990s and 2010, the overall subaerial and subaqueous delta area has had an average growth of 4168 m2 annually with the shoreline extending 1.451 m/year on average. This geomorphic growth has stabilised the estuarine deltaic habitats with high proportions of nutrients and organic matter, particularly within saltmarsh, mangrove, Casuarina/Juncus and other mixed native plant areas. This research shows the importance of analysing morphological changes observed on the delta that can be related to both anthropogenic modifications and natural processes to the catchment and thus should be used in the development of catchment and coastal management plans. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Geometrical Spreading Correction in Sidescan Sonar Seabed Imaging
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 54; doi:10.3390/jmse5040054 -
Abstract
Sound backscattered to a sonar from a seabed decreases in intensity with increasing range (R) due to geometrical spreading. As a far-range approximation, a geometrical spreading correction of +30logR decibels may be applied. A correction based on an
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Sound backscattered to a sonar from a seabed decreases in intensity with increasing range (R) due to geometrical spreading. As a far-range approximation, a geometrical spreading correction of +30logR decibels may be applied. A correction based on an accurate estimation of the area of the seabed ensonified by the sonar pulse incorporates additional terms that are a function of: range, sonic ray inclination angle, along- and across-trace components of seabed slope and sonar vehicle pitch. At near-normal incidence, the area of the seabed ensonified by the pulse lies within a circle truncated by the narrowness of the sonar beam. Beyond a critical range, the ensonified area separates into two areas disposed on opposite sides of an annulus, one being the principal and the other its conjugate. With increasing range, backscatter intensity from the conjugate area rapidly decreases. At steep inclination angles, the principal area of seabed ensonified is effectively increased by an estimable factor due to scattering from the conjugate area. Backscatter from the conjugate area leads the angle of incidence measured by swath interferometry requiring a correction for an estimate of the angle to the center of the pulse in the principal area. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Partial Stator Overlap in a Linear Generator for Wave Power: An Experimental Study
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 53; doi:10.3390/jmse5040053 -
Abstract
This paper presents a study on how the power absorption and damping in a linear generator for wave energy conversion are affected by partial overlap between stator and translator. The theoretical study shows that the electrical power as well as the damping coefficient
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This paper presents a study on how the power absorption and damping in a linear generator for wave energy conversion are affected by partial overlap between stator and translator. The theoretical study shows that the electrical power as well as the damping coefficient change quadratically with partial stator overlap, if inductance, friction and iron losses are assumed independent of partial stator overlap or can be neglected. Results from onshore experiments on a linear generator for wave energy conversion cannot reject the quadratic relationship. Measurements were done on the inductance of the linear generator and no dependence on partial stator overlap could be found. Simulations of the wave energy converter’s operation in high waves show that entirely neglecting partial stator overlap will overestimate the energy yield and underestimate the peak forces in the line between the buoy and the generator. The difference between assuming a linear relationship instead of a quadratic relationship is visible but small in the energy yield in the simulation. Since the theoretical deduction suggests a quadratic relationship, this is advisable to use during modeling. However, a linear assumption could be seen as an acceptable simplification when modeling since other relationships can be computationally costly. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Impact of Cyclone Track Features and Tidal Phase Shift upon Surge Characteristics in the Bay of Bengal along the Bangladesh Coast
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 52; doi:10.3390/jmse5040052 -
Abstract
The impact of cyclone track features (e.g., cyclone translation speed, cyclone path and cyclone landfall crossing angle) in combination with tidal phase shift upon surge characteristics have been investigated at the Bay of Bengal along the Bangladesh coast. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in
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The impact of cyclone track features (e.g., cyclone translation speed, cyclone path and cyclone landfall crossing angle) in combination with tidal phase shift upon surge characteristics have been investigated at the Bay of Bengal along the Bangladesh coast. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in a horizontal direction (2DH) coupled with a storm-surge model has been employed for the study. Numerical experiments with three different cyclone translation speeds show that when the surge height is directly forced by the cyclonic wind speed especially within the RWM (Radius of Maximum Wind), faster translation speed produces reduced surge height as the cyclone gets less time to force the water. On the other hand, at locations outside the RMW, surge waves travel as a propagating long wave where higher surges are produced by faster moving cyclones. It is found that surge arrival times are more and more affected by tidal phase when cyclone translation speed is reduced. Analysis of seven hypothetical parallel cyclone paths show that local bathymetry and complex coastline configurations strongly influence the surge height and surge arrival time along the Bangladesh coast. From the analyses of cyclone landfall crossing angles at the Khulna and Chittagong coasts, it is observed that surge durations are the smallest at both the coasts when the coastline crossing angles are the smallest. Full article
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Comparative Analysis of Coastal Flooding Vulnerability and Hazard Assessment at National Scale
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 51; doi:10.3390/jmse5040051 -
Abstract
The evaluation of the coastal hazard and vulnerability caused by storm conditions is an important issue related to coastal flooding and erosion. Although these topics have been widely tackled by past research, they cannot be avoided, but need to be carefully managed by
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The evaluation of the coastal hazard and vulnerability caused by storm conditions is an important issue related to coastal flooding and erosion. Although these topics have been widely tackled by past research, they cannot be avoided, but need to be carefully managed by local authorities in order to limit damage to coastal infrastructure, to protect human life, habitats and sensitive species. Usually, this issue is tackled through common approaches at the regional scale. This paper illustrates the first steps of a research project aimed at assessing coastal hazard and vulnerability to wave-induced flooding at the national scale. In order to apply the method to the national scale, it is necessary to select a suitable dataset. This has to be consistent with the whole application area, concerning its spatial distribution, reliability and availability. Thus, one of the aims of this project is to perform a comparative analysis using data available at the national and local scale. The analysis was performed for the area of Montalto di Castro (Tyrrhenian Sea) by using datasets with different spatial resolutions. The results revealed that the use of low resolution data does not significantly affect the estimated nearshore wave features, while the wave runup in underestimated by about 25%. This underestimation influences also the vulnerability and hazard assessments. In particular, the vulnerability is conservatively assessed if low resolution data are used. On the other hand, the hazard is conservatively assessed when low resolution data are used only if the wave runup is amplified by considering the 25% underestimation. The results presented herein can be extended to other sites with the same general features (i.e., microtidal and dissipative coastal stretches). Full article
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Open AccessArticle
An Integrated Numerical Model for the Design of Coastal Protection Structures
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 50; doi:10.3390/jmse5040050 -
Abstract
In the present work, an integrated coastal engineering numerical model is presented. The model simulates the linear wave propagation, wave-induced circulation, and sediment transport and bed morphology evolution. It consists of three main modules: WAVE_L, WICIR, and SEDTR. The nearshore wave transformation module
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In the present work, an integrated coastal engineering numerical model is presented. The model simulates the linear wave propagation, wave-induced circulation, and sediment transport and bed morphology evolution. It consists of three main modules: WAVE_L, WICIR, and SEDTR. The nearshore wave transformation module WAVE_L (WAVE_Linear) is based on the hyperbolic-type mild slope equation and is valid for a compound linear wave field near coastal structures where the waves are subjected to the combined effects of shoaling, refraction, diffraction, reflection (total and partial), and breaking. Radiation stress components (calculated from WAVE_L) drive the depth averaged circulation module WICIR (Wave Induced CIRculation) for the description of the nearshore wave-induced currents. Sediment transport and bed morphology evolution in the nearshore, surf, and swash zone are simulated by the SEDTR (SEDiment TRansport) module. The model is tested against experimental data to study the effect of representative coastal protection structures and is applied to a real case study of a coastal engineering project in North Greece, producing accurate and consistent results for a versatile range of layouts. Full article
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Open AccessReview
Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 49; doi:10.3390/jmse5040049 -
Abstract
For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened
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For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Biorock Electric Reefs Grow Back Severely Eroded Beaches in Months
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 48; doi:10.3390/jmse5040048 -
Abstract
Severely eroded beaches on low lying islands in Indonesia were grown back in a few months—believed to be a record—using an innovative method of shore protection, Biorock electric reef technology. Biorock shore protection reefs are growing limestone structures that get stronger with age
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Severely eroded beaches on low lying islands in Indonesia were grown back in a few months—believed to be a record—using an innovative method of shore protection, Biorock electric reef technology. Biorock shore protection reefs are growing limestone structures that get stronger with age and repair themselves, are cheaper than concrete or rock sea walls and breakwaters, and are much more effective at shore protection and beach growth. Biorock reefs are permeable, porous, growing, self-repairing structures of any size or shape, which dissipate wave energy by internal refraction, diffraction, and frictional dissipation. They do not cause reflection of waves like hard sea walls and breakwaters, which erodes the sand in front of, and then underneath, such structures, until they collapse. Biorock reefs stimulate settlement, growth, survival, and resistance to the environmental stress of all forms of marine life, restoring coral reefs, sea grasses, biological sand production, and fisheries habitat. Biorock reefs can grow back eroded beaches and islands faster than the rate of sea level rise, and are the most cost-effective method of shore protection and adaptation to global sea level rise for low lying islands and coasts. Full article
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Wind-Driven Overturning, Mixing and Upwelling in Shallow Water: A Nonhydrostatic Modeling Study
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 47; doi:10.3390/jmse5040047 -
Abstract
Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model, this work demonstrates that onshore winds are a principal agent of overturning and vigorous vertical mixing in nearshore water of lakes and inner continental shelves. On short (superinertial) timescales of a few hours, onshore winds create surface currents
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Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model, this work demonstrates that onshore winds are a principal agent of overturning and vigorous vertical mixing in nearshore water of lakes and inner continental shelves. On short (superinertial) timescales of a few hours, onshore winds create surface currents pushing water against the shore which, via the associated pressure gradient force, creates an undercurrent. The resulting overturning circulation rapidly becomes dynamically unstable due to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability mechanism, internal gravity waves form, and vigorous vertical mixing follows. The vertical extent of the overturning cell depends on the speed of surface currents and density stratification (which is influenced by other processes such as tidal mixing). In smaller enclosed water bodies, wave reflection in conjunction with dynamical instabilities support rapid mixed-layer deepening and overturning of the entire water column. Based on these findings, the author postulates that dynamic instabilities following from onshore wind events are of fundamental importance to biogeochemical cycles and ecological processes in shelf seas and lakes. Full article
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Open AccessTechnical Note
SISI: A New Device for In Situ Incubations at the Ocean Surface
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 46; doi:10.3390/jmse5040046 -
Abstract
The sea-surface microlayer (SML) forms the uppermost boundary layer between atmosphere and ocean, and has distinctive physico-chemical and biological features compared to the underlying water. First findings on metabolic contributions of microorganisms to gas exchange processes across the SML raised the need for
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The sea-surface microlayer (SML) forms the uppermost boundary layer between atmosphere and ocean, and has distinctive physico-chemical and biological features compared to the underlying water. First findings on metabolic contributions of microorganisms to gas exchange processes across the SML raised the need for new in situ technologies to explore plankton-oxygen turnover in this special habitat. Here, we describe an inexpensive research tool, the Surface In Situ Incubator (SISI), which allows simultaneous incubations of the SML, and water samples from 1 m and 5 m, at the respective depths of origin. The SISI is deployed from a small boat, seaworthy up to 5 bft (Beaufort scale), and due to global positioning system (GPS) tracking, capable of drifting freely for hours or days. We tested the SISI by applying light/dark bottle incubations in the Baltic Sea and the tropical Pacific Ocean under various conditions to present first data on planktonic oxygen turnover rates within the SML, and two subsurface depths. The SISI offers the potential to study plankton-oxygen turnover within the SML under the natural influence of abiotic parameters, and hence, is a valuable tool to routinely monitor their physiological role in biogeochemical cycling and gas exchange processes at, and near, the sea surface. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Validation of a Tool for the Initial Dynamic Design of Mooring Systems for Large Floating Wave Energy Converters
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(4), 45; doi:10.3390/jmse5040045 -
Abstract
Mooring of floating wave energy converters is an important topic in renewable research since it highly influences the overall cost of the wave energy converter and thereby the cost of energy. In addition, several wave energy converter failures have been observed due to
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Mooring of floating wave energy converters is an important topic in renewable research since it highly influences the overall cost of the wave energy converter and thereby the cost of energy. In addition, several wave energy converter failures have been observed due to insufficient mooring systems. When designing these systems, it is necessary to ensure the applicability of the design tool and to establish an understanding of the error between model and prototype. The present paper presents the outcome of an experimental test campaign and construction of a numerical model using the open-source boundary element method code NEMOH and the commercial time-domain mooring analysis tool OrcaFlex. The work used the wind/wave energy converter Floating Power Plant as a case study, which is defined as a large floating structure with a passive mooring system. The investigated mooring consists of a three-legged turret system with synthetic lines, and it was tested for both operational and extreme events. In order to understand the difference between the model and experimental results, no tuning of the model was done, besides adding drag elements with values found from a simplified methodology. This resembles initial design cases where no experimental data are available. Generally good agreement was found for the tensions in the lines when the drag element was applied, with some overestimation of the motions. The main cause of difference was found to be underestimation of linear damping. A model was tested with additional linear damping, and it illustrated that a final analysis needs to use experimental data to achieve the best results. However, the analyses showed that the investigated model can be used without tuning in initial investigations of mooring systems, and it is expected that this approach can be applied to other similar systems. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Cost and Materials Required to Retrofit US Seaports in Response to Sea Level Rise: A Thought Exercise for Climate Response
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 44; doi:10.3390/jmse5030044 -
Abstract
Climate changes projected for 2100 and beyond could result in a worldwide race for adaptation resources on a scale never seen before. This paper describes a model for estimating the cost and materials of elevating coastal seaport infrastructure in the United States to
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Climate changes projected for 2100 and beyond could result in a worldwide race for adaptation resources on a scale never seen before. This paper describes a model for estimating the cost and materials of elevating coastal seaport infrastructure in the United States to prevent damage from sea level rise associated with climate change. This study pilots the use of a generic port model (GenPort) as a basis from which to estimate regional materials and monetary demands, resulting in projections that would be infeasible to calculate on an individual port-by-port basis. We estimate the combined cost of adding two meters of additional fill material to elevate the working surface and then reconstructing the generic port. We use the resulting unit area cost to develop an estimate to elevate and retrofit 100 major United States commercial coastal ports. A total of $57 billion to $78 billion (2012 US dollars) and 704 million cubic meters of fill would be required to elevate the 100 ports by two meters and to reconstruct associated infrastructure. This estimation method and the results serve as a thought exercise to provoke considerations of the cumulative monetary and material demands of widespread adaptations of seaport infrastructure. The model can be adapted for use in multiple infrastructure sectors and coastal managers can use the outlined considerations as a basis for individual port adaptation strategy assessments. Full article
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Impact of North Atlantic Teleconnection Patterns on Northern European Sea Level
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 43; doi:10.3390/jmse5030043 -
Abstract
Northern European sea levels show a non-stationary link to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The location of the centers of the NAO dipole, however, can be affected through the interplay with the East Atlantic (EAP) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) teleconnection patterns. Our results
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Northern European sea levels show a non-stationary link to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The location of the centers of the NAO dipole, however, can be affected through the interplay with the East Atlantic (EAP) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the binary combination of the NAO with the EAP/SCAN for better understanding the non-stationary drivers inducing sea level variations along the European coasts. By combining altimetry and tide gauges, we find that anomalously high monthly sea levels along the Norwegian (North Sea) coast are predominantly governed by same positive phase NAO+/EAP+ (NAO+/SCAN+) type of atmospheric circulation, while the Newlyn and Brest tide gauges respond markedly to the opposite phase NAO−/EAP+ combination. Despite these regional differences, we find that coherent European sea level changes project onto a pattern resembling NAO+/SCAN+, which is signified by pressure anomalies over Scandinavia and southern Europe forcing winds to trace the continental slope, resulting in a pile-up of water along the European coasts through Ekman transport. We conclude that taking into consideration the interaction between these atmospheric circulation regimes is valuable and may help to understand the time-varying relationship between the NAO and European mean sea level. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Choosing a Future Shoreline for the San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 42; doi:10.3390/jmse5030042 -
Abstract
In metropolitan regions made up of multiple independent jurisdictions, adaptation to increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise requires coordinated strategic planning of the physical and organizational approaches to be adopted. Here, we explore a flexible method for estimating physical adaptation costs
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In metropolitan regions made up of multiple independent jurisdictions, adaptation to increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise requires coordinated strategic planning of the physical and organizational approaches to be adopted. Here, we explore a flexible method for estimating physical adaptation costs along the San Francisco Bay shoreline. Our goal is to identify uncertainties that can hinder cooperation and decision-making. We categorized shoreline data, estimated the height of exceedance for sea level rise scenarios, and developed a set of unit costs for raising current infrastructure to meet future water levels. Using these cost estimates, we explored critical strategic planning questions, including shoreline positions, design heights, and infrastructure types. For shoreline position, we found that while the shortest line is in fact the least costly, building the future shoreline at today’s transition from saltwater to freshwater vegetation is similar in cost but allows for the added possibility of conserving saltwater wetlands. Regulations requiring a specific infrastructure design height above the water level had a large impact on physical construction costs, increasing them by as much as 200%. Finally, our results show that the costs of raising existing walls may represent 70% to 90% of the total regional costs, suggesting that a shift to earthen terraces and levees will reduce adaptation costs significantly. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Effects of Salinity on Surface Lifetime of Large Individual Bubbles
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 41; doi:10.3390/jmse5030041 -
Abstract
The influence of salinity on the characteristics of individual bubbles (2–4 mm in diameter) in fresh and saline water (up to 40 practical salinity units) was investigated. Bubbles were produced by forcing air through capillary tubes. Aqueous solutions in distilled and filtered tap
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The influence of salinity on the characteristics of individual bubbles (2–4 mm in diameter) in fresh and saline water (up to 40 practical salinity units) was investigated. Bubbles were produced by forcing air through capillary tubes. Aqueous solutions in distilled and filtered tap waters with minimized presence of organic additives were used. Salinity, surface tension, and water temperature were monitored. Parameters measured were the bubble surface lifetime, diameter, and rise velocity. The surface lifetime varies widely (in the range of 0.4–35 s) depending on the salinity concentration and the purity of the solutions. Variations with salinity of size and rise velocity of large individual bubbles are discussed. Interpretation of the results in terms of anti-foaming (negative adsorption), as well as the Marangoni and the Gibbs effects, is helpful in understanding the results. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 40; doi:10.3390/jmse5030040 -
Abstract
Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater
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Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments. Full article
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