Open AccessArticle
Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 22; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040022 -
Abstract
Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by
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Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by the beauty contest game, is associated with social skills, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ). In line with our hypothesis, we found that social skills were positively related to successful strategic decision-making. Furthermore, results showed a curvilinear relationship between steps of reasoning in the beauty contest game and social skills, indicating that very high as well as very low scoring individuals on the social skills subscale of the AQ engaged in high-levels of strategic thinking. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 23; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040023 -
Abstract
This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the
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This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
The Valuation of Equities and the GDP Growth Effect: A Global Empirical Study
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 21; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040021 -
Abstract
One of the main characteristics of the (recently proposed) non-arbitrage valuation of equities framework is the reduction in pricing subjectivity. This is evidenced in terms of the dividends discount rate and the outlook of future performance (dividends projection) of the company that is
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One of the main characteristics of the (recently proposed) non-arbitrage valuation of equities framework is the reduction in pricing subjectivity. This is evidenced in terms of the dividends discount rate and the outlook of future performance (dividends projection) of the company that is being valued. Under this framework, as in the case of derivatives pricing, the discount rate is the risk-free interest rate (not the cost of equity), and the subjectively-determined drift of the stochastic process that drives the operating profits of the company is eliminated. The challenge that emerges is that the structure of the new drift of the operating profits process is undetermined under the methodology (this is a similar feature that is observed in the case of derivatives related to non-tradable assets). This paper proposes that the structure of this new drift is represented by the (country-specific) GDP nominal growth effect. This proposition is tested through an empirical study that involves several companies of 10 equity indices worldwide, for two different periods (1995–2004 and 2005–2014). The results of the test are reasonably successful, meaning that further research related to the framework could provide useful information for the understanding of financial assets and their links to the macro-economy. Full article
Open AccessReview
Operational Risk Management in Financial Institutions: A Literature Review
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 20; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040020 -
Abstract
Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research
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Following the three-pillar structure of the Basel II/III framework, the article categorises and surveys 279 academic papers on operational risk in financial institutions, covering the period from 1998 to 2014. In doing so, different lines of both theoretical and empirical directions for research are identified. In addition, this study provides an overview of existing consortia databases and other publicly available sources on operational loss that may be incorporated into empirical research, as well as in risk measurement processes by financial institutions. Finally, this paper highlights the research gaps in operational risk and outlines recommendations for further research. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
The Effect of Straight-Line and Accelerated Depreciation Rules on Risky Investment Decisions—An Experimental Study
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 19; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040019 -
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze how depreciation rules influence the decision behavior of investors. For this purpose, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which participants decide on the composition of an asset portfolio in different choice situations. Using an experimental
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The aim of this study is to analyze how depreciation rules influence the decision behavior of investors. For this purpose, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which participants decide on the composition of an asset portfolio in different choice situations. Using an experimental setting with different payment periods, we show that accelerated compared to straight-line depreciation can increase the willingness to invest as hypothesized by theory. However, this expected behavior is only observed in a more complex environment (with a subsidy) and not in a less complex environment (without a subsidy). Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Stock Selection as a Problem in Phylogenetics—Evidence from the ASX
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 18; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040018 -
Abstract
We report the results of fifteen sets of portfolio selection simulations using stocks in the ASX200 index for the period May 2000 to December 2013. We investigated five portfolio selection methods, random selection, selection within industrial groups, and three based on neighbor-Net phylogenetic
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We report the results of fifteen sets of portfolio selection simulations using stocks in the ASX200 index for the period May 2000 to December 2013. We investigated five portfolio selection methods, random selection, selection within industrial groups, and three based on neighbor-Net phylogenetic networks. We report that using random, industrial groups, or neighbor-Net phylogenetic networks alone rarely produced statistically significant reduction in risk, though in four out of the five cases in which it did so, the portfolios selected using the phylogenetic networks had the lowest risk. However, we report that when using the neighbor-Net phylogenetic networks in combination with industry group selection that substantial reductions in portfolio return spread were achieved. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Spatially-Aggregated Temperature Derivatives: Agricultural Risk Management in China
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(3), 17; doi:10.3390/ijfs4030017 -
Abstract
In this paper, a new form of weather derivative contract, namely the climatic zone-based growth degree-day (GDD) contract, is introduced. The objective is to increase the risk management efficiency in the agricultural sector of China and to reduce the model dimension of multi-regional
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In this paper, a new form of weather derivative contract, namely the climatic zone-based growth degree-day (GDD) contract, is introduced. The objective is to increase the risk management efficiency in the agricultural sector of China and to reduce the model dimension of multi-regional temperature-based weather derivatives pricing. Since the proposed contract serves as a risk management tool for all of the cities in the same climatic zone, we compare the risk hedging power between the climatic zone-based and the city-based GDD contracts. As a result, we find that the differences between the two types of temperature-based weather contracts are maintained within a certain range. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(3), 16; doi:10.3390/ijfs4030016 -
Abstract
In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements
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In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior is inconclusive. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior, using a panel dataset of 21 listed commercial banks of Pakistan over the period 2005–2012. Purely regulatory measures of bank capital, capital adequacy ratio, and bank assets portfolio risk, risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio, are used for the main analysis. Recently developed small N panel methods (bias corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC) method and system GMM method with instruments collapse option) are used to control for panel fixed effects, dynamic dependent variables, and endogenous independent variables. Overall, the results suggest that commercial banks have reduced assets portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. Results also confirm that all banks having risk-based capital ratios either lower or higher than the regulatory required limits, have decreased portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. The results are robust to alternative proxies of bank risk-taking, alternative estimation methods, and alternative samples. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Back to the Future Betas: Empirical Asset Pricing of US and Southeast Asian Markets
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(3), 15; doi:10.3390/ijfs4030015 -
Abstract
The study adds an empirical outlook on the predicting power of using data from the future to predict future returns. The crux of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) methodology is using historical data in the calculation of the beta coefficient. This
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The study adds an empirical outlook on the predicting power of using data from the future to predict future returns. The crux of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) methodology is using historical data in the calculation of the beta coefficient. This study instead uses a battery of Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, of differing lag and parameter terms, to forecast the variance of the market used in the denominator of the beta formula. The covariance of the portfolio and market returns are assumed to remain constant in the time-varying beta calculations. The data spans from 3 January 2005 to 29 December 2014. One ten-year, two five-year, and three three-year sample periods were used, for robustness, with ten different portfolios. Out of sample forecasts, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared forecast error (MSE) were used to compare the forecasting ability of the ex-ante GARCH models, Artificial Neural Network, and the standard market ex-post model. Find that the time-varying MGARCH and SGARCH beta performed better with out-of-sample testing than the other ex-ante models. Although the simplest approach, constant ex-post beta, performed as well or better within this empirical study. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(3), 14; doi:10.3390/ijfs4030014 -
Abstract
In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of credit default swaps (CDS) premium as a risk financial indicator on the fluctuations of value of the Turkish lira against the Euro. We try to answer the following questions: Is the CDS premium
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In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of credit default swaps (CDS) premium as a risk financial indicator on the fluctuations of value of the Turkish lira against the Euro. We try to answer the following questions: Is the CDS premium change among the drivers of EUR/TL exchange rate and what are the possible effects of CDS premium volatility on EUR/TL exchange rate stability in different conditions? In this regard, we developed a MS-VAR regime change model and asymmetric, frequency domain and rolling windows causality analysis methods. Results obtained from all tests imply that risk premium is partially a driver of the EUR/TL exchange rate between the years 2009 and 2015. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Determination of Systemically Important Companies with Cross-Shareholding Network Analysis: A Case Study from an Emerging Market
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(3), 13; doi:10.3390/ijfs4030013 -
Abstract
Systemic risk events constitute an important issue in current financial systems. A leading course of action used to mitigate such events is identification of systemically important agents in order to implement the prudential policies in a financial system. In this paper, a bi-level
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Systemic risk events constitute an important issue in current financial systems. A leading course of action used to mitigate such events is identification of systemically important agents in order to implement the prudential policies in a financial system. In this paper, a bi-level cross-shareholding network of the stock market is considered according to direct and integrated ownership structure. Furthermore, different systemic risk indices are applied to identify systemically important companies in an early warning system. Results of application of these indices on cross-shareholding data from Tehran Stock Exchange show that integrated network indices produce more reliable results. Moreover, results of statistical analysis of the networks indicated the existence of scale-free characteristics in the TSE cross-shareholding network. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Europe’s Elite Football: Financial Growth, Sporting Success, Transfer Investment, and Private Majority Investors
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 12; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020012 -
Abstract
Europe’s elite football clubs are a small group of about 30 clubs mostly originating from the Big Five leagues in England, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. These clubs top Deloitte’s Football Money League ranking Europe’s top football clubs by revenues. They also win
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Europe’s elite football clubs are a small group of about 30 clubs mostly originating from the Big Five leagues in England, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France. These clubs top Deloitte’s Football Money League ranking Europe’s top football clubs by revenues. They also win the vast majority of national and European football competitions, and account for the major share of FIFA World Cup appearances. Nevertheless, empirical analyses studying the antecedents of financial success of this peculiar sample are rare. This paper extends previous research by building an empirical model of financial performance and applying it to a unique, high-quality dataset of the top 30 EU football clubs by club revenues analyzed over ten consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2013. Fixed effects models are performed to account for time trends and club fixed effects. The results show that financial success is driven by national and international sporting success, as well as brand value; sporting success is driven by team investments, and team investments tend to be driven by (foreign) private majority investors. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Does Bilateral Market and Financial Integration Explains International Co-Movement Patterns1
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 10; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020010 -
Abstract
This study aims to explore the relationship between market integration, foreign portfolio equity holding and inflation rates on international stock market linkages between Pakistan and India. To measure stock equity interlinkage, we constructed international co-movement index through rolling beta estimation. Market integration variable
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This study aims to explore the relationship between market integration, foreign portfolio equity holding and inflation rates on international stock market linkages between Pakistan and India. To measure stock equity interlinkage, we constructed international co-movement index through rolling beta estimation. Market integration variable between these two countries is constructed using the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). To check the impact of market integration, foreign portfolio equity holding and inflation rate on Pakistan-Indian stock market co-movement, we applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation. ARDL estimation is applied due to different stationarity levels of the included variables. The level of convergence speed is measured by the introduction of error correction term (ECT) followed by variance decomposition analysis. Results of the study indicated presence of long term relationship among the included variables along with significance variance in bilateral co-movement due to inflation rate differential. The significance of inflation rate differences between these two countries are in accordance with portfolio balance theory stating that investors possess information about the macroeconomic variables thereby readjusting their portfolios for effective diversification. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Performance of the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR): Evidence from Emerging Stock Markets
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 11; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020011 -
Abstract
In this study, the performance of the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR) was examined for stock index returns of four emerging markets. The MMAR, which takes into account stylized facts of financial time series, such as long memory, fat tails and trading
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In this study, the performance of the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns (MMAR) was examined for stock index returns of four emerging markets. The MMAR, which takes into account stylized facts of financial time series, such as long memory, fat tails and trading time, was developed as an alternative to the ARCH family models. Empirical analysis of the study consists of two sections. In the first section, we estimated the parameters of GARCH, EGARCH, FIGARCH, MRS-GARCH and MMAR for the stock index returns of Croatia, Greece, Poland and Turkey. In the second section, 1000 paths were obtained for each model using Monte Carlo simulations. We then compared the scaling function values of simulated and original time series for different q orders (1–5). According to the obtained results, the MMAR is mostly superior to other models and presents the best replica of the original time series. Another important finding is the achievement of the MRS-GARCH. We found that for lower levels of persistency (long memory) of return series, the performance of the MRS-GARCH excels, and for H = 0.5, it narrowly outperforms the MMAR. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Factors Affecting Firm Competitiveness: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 9; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020009 -
Abstract
The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting firm competitiveness in an emerging market—Turkey. In the paper, competitiveness is proxied by a firm’s financial performance. The empirical analysis is based on firms listed on Borsa Istanbul and covers the period
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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting firm competitiveness in an emerging market—Turkey. In the paper, competitiveness is proxied by a firm’s financial performance. The empirical analysis is based on firms listed on Borsa Istanbul and covers the period between 2005 and 2014. Results from a firm-level panel data model indicate that return on assets is positively related to firm size, international sales, liquidity and growth, and negatively related to leverage and R&D expenditures. On the other hand, gross profit margin is positively related to size and international sales, and negatively related to leverage and R&D expenditures. Finally, results show that Tobin’s Q ratio is higher for firms with higher levels of debt and higher liquidity levels. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Corporate Governance Rating and Ownership Structure in the Case of Turkey
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 8; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020008 -
Abstract
By using corporate governance data on 22 publicly traded Turkish companies we estimate the determinants of corporate governance ratings for these companies with a focus on ownership structure. Our results show that company earnings, financial risk and firm size positively influence the corporate
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By using corporate governance data on 22 publicly traded Turkish companies we estimate the determinants of corporate governance ratings for these companies with a focus on ownership structure. Our results show that company earnings, financial risk and firm size positively influence the corporate governance ratings (CGR) that Turkish firms receive. In the meantime, we find some weak evidence that family ownership has a negative and foreign ownership has a positive impact on CGR scores. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Debunking Two Myths of the Weekend Effect
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 7; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020007 -
Abstract
This paper finds the weekend effect to be a remarkably robust anomaly and refutes the widespread belief that the weekend effect is due to data-mining or a consequence of some unusual/rare events. Out-of-sample analysis finds both the mean and median return on Monday
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This paper finds the weekend effect to be a remarkably robust anomaly and refutes the widespread belief that the weekend effect is due to data-mining or a consequence of some unusual/rare events. Out-of-sample analysis finds both the mean and median return on Monday is lower than that on Friday in nearly all years. It also reconciles and explains how some prior studies reached such an erroneous conclusion. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Public Debt, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(2), 6; doi:10.3390/ijfs4020006 -
Abstract
The primary objective of this article is to answer the following two research questions: has the growing public debt of state governments promoted increased public investment? If the answer is yes, then does any increase in public investment lead to more growth in
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The primary objective of this article is to answer the following two research questions: has the growing public debt of state governments promoted increased public investment? If the answer is yes, then does any increase in public investment lead to more growth in the Mexican states? Dynamic Models of panel data and the Generalized Method of Moments, with information for 32 states from 1993 to 2012, were used for this purpose. The econometric results confirmed that public debt is positively correlated with public investment and that this in turn generates economic growth. This does not mean that a good economic policy strategy has been followed, since the marginal positive impact of public investment, and therefore the public debt on the production per person, is reduced (1% increase in the interaction between public investment and public debt variable causes a 0.0005% increase in economic growth). This suggests deviations from the debt contracted for purposes other than production, which could lead to a situation of unsustainability of state public finances in the medium term. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Reverse Mortgage Participation in the United States: Evidence from a National Study
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(1), 5; doi:10.3390/ijfs4010005 -
Abstract
This paper uses the most recent wave of a nationally representative dataset to examine the factors associated with elderly homeowners’ decision to obtain reverse mortgage loans. The findings of this study suggest that very few homeowners participated in the reverse mortgage market, and
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This paper uses the most recent wave of a nationally representative dataset to examine the factors associated with elderly homeowners’ decision to obtain reverse mortgage loans. The findings of this study suggest that very few homeowners participated in the reverse mortgage market, and homeowners younger than 67 were less likely to have reverse mortgage loans. However, homeowners who were risk averse, and homeowners in the two highest quartiles of net worth were more likely to have reverse mortgage loans. Further analyses reveal that among the reverse mortgage participants, homeowners with long-term care insurance coverage were less likely to have reverse mortgage loans. Implications for financial economists, financial planners, policy-makers, and scholars of retirement economics are included. Full article
Open AccessArticle
The Efficiency of the European Non-Life Insurance: CEO Power, Macroeconomic, and Market Characteristics Impact
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(1), 4; doi:10.3390/ijfs4010004 -
Abstract
A numbers of studies focusing on the determinant of the insurance market efficiency have increased in the last decade. In fact, many factors, like the CEO’s power, can influence the efficiency in the insurance firm. The purpose of this research is to analyze
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A numbers of studies focusing on the determinant of the insurance market efficiency have increased in the last decade. In fact, many factors, like the CEO’s power, can influence the efficiency in the insurance firm. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between efficiency, measured by the cost function using the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) methodologies, and the market structure, as well as the macroeconomic variables. In addition, it focuses on identifying the impact of the integration of the CEO power variable in the cost function on this relation. The result shows that after the consideration of the CEO power score in the cost efficiency, the relation between insurance efficiency and the determinant of market development, as well as the domestic economy, has changed and become more significant. The result also shows that the firms become more efficient and more profitable with a higher concentration ratio and this is in accordance with the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) theory. Full article