Abstract: Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.
Abstract: It is always a dream of hydrologists to model the mystery of complex hydrological processes in a precise way. If parameterized correctly, a simple hydrological model can represent nature very accurately. In this study, a simple and effective optimization algorithm, sequential replacement of weak parameters (SRWP), is introduced for automatic calibration of hydrological models. In the SRWP algorithm, a weak parameter set is sequentially replaced with another deeper and good parameter set. The SRWP algorithm is tested on several theoretical test functions, as well as with a hydrological model. The SRWP algorithm result is compared with the shuffled complex evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm and the robust parameter estimation (ROPE) algorithm. The result shows that the SRWP algorithm easily overcomes the local minima and converges to the optimal parameter space. The SRWP algorithm does not converge to a single optima; instead, it gives a convex hull of an optimal space. An ensemble of results can be generated from the optimal space for prediction purpose. The ensemble spread will account for the parameter estimation uncertainty. The methodology was demonstrated using the hydrological model (HYMOD) conceptual model on upper Neckar catchments of southwest Germany. The results show that the parameters estimated by this stepwise calibration are robust and comparable to commonly-used optimization algorithms. SRWP can be an alternative to other optimization algorithms for model calibration.
Abstract: Karst springs of the Makook anticline were investigated to get more insight into the hydrogeologic, hydraulic, and hydrodynamic behavior of this complex karst system. Eight springs were studied in terms of hydrogeochemical constituents as well as δ18O and δ2H during September 2011 to November 2012. For the first time, the local meteoric water line was plotted for the area based on precipitation data from the period November 2011 to April 2012. The regional meteoric line plots between the global and Mediterranean meteoric water lines. The majority of the spring samples plot between the local and Mediterranean meteoric water lines implying influences by Mediterranean air masses, rapid infiltration of rainfall through the karst system and a short residence time (shallow karst aquifers). The correlation of d-excess and saturation index of halite was used to evaluate the evaporation process in karst waters of the area. The temporal variation in isotopic composition of karst springs was observed making it possible to distinguish between different origins for springs and indicate a possible connection between the aquifers and depending on this, the karst system can be classified into three aquifers: Behkme aquifer, Kometan aquifer, and Shiranish aquifer.
Abstract: This study investigates the hydrology of Castle River in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains. Temperature and precipitation data are analyzed regarding a climate trend between 1960 and 2010 and a general warming is identified. Observed streamflow has been declining in reaction to a decreasing snow cover and increasing evapotranspiration. To simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed, the physically based hydrological model WaSiM (Water Balance Simulation Model) is applied. Calibration and validation provide very accurate results and also the observed declining runoff trend can be reproduced with a slightly differing inclination. Besides climate change induced runoff variations, the impact of a vast wildfire in 2003 is analyzed. To determine burned areas a remote sensing method of differenced burn ratios is applied using Landsat data. The results show good agreement compared to observed fire perimeter areas. The impacts of the wildfires are evident in observed runoff data. They also result in a distinct decrease in model efficiency if not considered via an adapted model parameterization, taking into account the modified land cover characteristics for the burned area. Results in this study reveal (i) the necessity to establish specific land cover classes for burned areas; (ii) the relevance of climate and land cover change on the hydrological response of the Castle River watershed; and (iii) the sensitivity of the hydrological model to accurately simulate the hydrological behavior under varying boundary conditions. By these means, the presented methodological approach is considered robust to implement a scenario simulations framework for projecting the impacts of future climate and land cover change in the vulnerable region of Alberta’s Rocky Mountains.
Abstract: The ever-increasing availability of new remote sensing and land surface model datasets opens new opportunities for hydrologists to improve flood forecasting systems. The current study investigates the performance of two operational soil moisture (SM) products provided by the “EUMETSATSatellite Application Facility in Support of Operational Hydrology and Water Management” (H-SAF, http://hsaf.meteoam.it/) within a recently-developed hydrological model called the “simplified continuous rainfall-runoff model” (SCRRM) and the possibility of using such a model at an operational level. The model uses SM datasets derived from external sources (i.e., remote sensing and land surface models) as input for calculating the initial wetness conditions of the catchment prior to the flood event. Hydro-meteorological data from 35 Italian catchments ranging from 800 to 7400 km2 were used for the analysis for a total of 593 flood events. The results show that H-SAF operational products used within SCRRM satisfactorily reproduce the selected flood events, providing a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index equal to 0.64 (SM-OBS-1) and 0.60 (SM-DAS-2), respectively. Given the results obtained along with the parsimony, the simplicity and independence of the model from continuously-recorded rainfall and evapotranspiration data, the study suggests that: (i) SM-OBS-1 and SM-DAS-2 contain useful information for flood modelling, which can be exploited in flood forecasting; and (ii) SCRRM is expected to be beneficial as a component of real-time flood forecasting systems in regions characterized by low data availability, where a continuous modelling approach can be problematic.