Open AccessArticle
Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty
Climate 2017, 5(1), 12; doi:10.3390/cli5010012 (registering DOI) -
Abstract
Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal
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Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal to satisfy the growing demands whilst also continuing to provide hydroelectric power generation. This study quantitatively assesses the reliability and robustness of the Masinga dam system under uncertain future supply and demand using probabilistic climate and population projections, and examines how long-term planning may improve the longevity of the dam. River flow and demand projections are used alongside each other as inputs to the dam system simulation model linked to an optimisation engine to maximise water availability. Water availability after demand satisfaction is assessed for future years, and the projected reliability of the system is calculated for selected years. The analysis shows that maximising power generation on a short-term year-by-year basis achieves 80%, 50% and 1% reliability by 2020, 2025 and 2030 onwards, respectively. Longer term optimal planning, however, has increased system reliability to up to 95% in 2020, 80% in 2025, and more than 40% in 2030 onwards. In addition, increasing the capacity of the reservoir by around 25% can significantly improve the robustness of the system for all future time periods. This study provides a platform for analysing the implication of different planning and management of Masinga dam and suggests that careful consideration should be given to account for growing municipal needs and irrigation schemes in both the immediate and the associated Tana River basin. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Urban Land Use Land Cover Changes and Their Effect on Land Surface Temperature: Case Study Using Dohuk City in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
Climate 2017, 5(1), 13; doi:10.3390/cli5010013 -
Abstract
The growth of urban areas has a significant impact on land use by replacing areas of vegetation with residential and commercial areas and their related infrastructure; this escalates the land surface temperature (LST). Rapid urban growth has occurred in Duhok City due to
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The growth of urban areas has a significant impact on land use by replacing areas of vegetation with residential and commercial areas and their related infrastructure; this escalates the land surface temperature (LST). Rapid urban growth has occurred in Duhok City due to enhanced political and economic growth during the period of this study. The objective is to investigate the effect of land use changes on LST; this study depends on data from three Landsat images (two Landsat 5-TM and Landsat OLI_TIRS-8) from 1990, 2000 and 2016. Supervised classification was used to compute land use/cover categories, and to generate the land surface temperature (LST) maps the Mono-window algorithm was used. Images were also used to create the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), normalized difference bareness index (NDBAI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) maps. Linear regression analysis was used to generate relationships between LST with NDVI, NDBI, NDBAI and NDWI. The study outcome proves that the changes in land use/cover have a significant role in the escalation of land surface temperatures. The highest temperatures are associated with barren land and built-up areas, ranging from 47°C, 50°C, 56°C while lower temperatures are related to water bodies and forests, ranging from 25°C, 26°C, 29°C respectively, in 1990, 2000 and 2016. This study also proves that NDVI and NDWI correlate negatively with low temperatures while NDBI and NDBAI correlate positively with high temperatures. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection using Hourly and Daily Observations in Portland, Oregon
Climate 2017, 5(1), 10; doi:10.3390/cli5010010 -
Abstract
The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records
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The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records may affect the success of trend detection. Daily observations are often used, but may be too coarse to detect changes. Sub-daily records may improve detection, but their value is not yet quantified. Using daily and hourly records from 24 rain gages in Portland, Oregon (OR), trends in precipitation intensity and volume are examined for the period of 1999–2015. Daily intensity is measured using the Simple Daily Intensity Index, and this method is adapted to measure hourly scale intensity. Kendall’s tau, a non-parametric correlation coefficient, is used for monotonic trend detection. Field significance and tests for spatial autocorrelation using Moran’s Index are used to determine the significance of group hypothesis tests. Results indicate that the hourly data is superior in trend detection when compared with daily data; more trends are detected with hourly scale data at both the 5% and 10% significance levels. Hourly records showed a significant increase in 6 of 12 months, while daily records showed a significant increase in 4 of 12 months at the 10% significance level. At both scales increasing trends were concentrated in spring and summer months, while no winter trends were detected. Volume was shown to be increasing in most months experiencing increased intensity, and is a probable driver of the intensity trends observed. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Climatic Variability and Land Use Change in Kamala Watershed, Sindhuli District, Nepal
Climate 2017, 5(1), 11; doi:10.3390/cli5010011 -
Abstract
This study focuses on the land use change and climatic variability assessment around Kamala watershed, Sindhuli district, Nepal. The study area covers two municipalities and eight Village Development Committees (VDCs). In this paper, land use change and the climatic variability are examined. The
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This study focuses on the land use change and climatic variability assessment around Kamala watershed, Sindhuli district, Nepal. The study area covers two municipalities and eight Village Development Committees (VDCs). In this paper, land use change and the climatic variability are examined. The study was focused on analyzing the changes in land use area within the period of 1995 to 2014 and how the climatic data have evolved in different meteorological stations around the watershed. The topographic maps, Google Earth images and ArcGIS 10.1 for four successive years, 1995, 2005, 2010, and 2014 were used to prepare the land use map. The trend analysis of temperature and precipitation data was conducted using Mann Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope method using R (3.1.2 version) software. It was found that from 1995 to 2014, the forest area, river terrace, pond, and landslide area decreased while the cropland, settlement, and orchard area increased. The temperature and precipitation trend analysis shows variability in annual, maximum, and seasonal rainfall at different stations. The maximum and minimum temperature increased in all the respective stations, but the changes are statistically insignificant. The Sen’s slope for annual rainfall at ten different stations varied between −38.9 to 4.8 mm per year. Land use change and climatic variability have been analyzed; however, further study is required to establish any relation between climatic variability and land use change. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA
Climate 2017, 5(1), 7; doi:10.3390/cli5010007 -
Abstract
This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5
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This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
A Global ETCCDI-Based Precipitation Climatology from Satellite and Rain Gauge Measurements
Climate 2017, 5(1), 9; doi:10.3390/cli5010009 -
Abstract
Precipitation is still one of the most complex climate variables to observe, to understand, and to handle within climate monitoring and climate analysis as well as to simulate in numerical weather prediction and climate models. Especially over ocean, less is known about precipitation
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Precipitation is still one of the most complex climate variables to observe, to understand, and to handle within climate monitoring and climate analysis as well as to simulate in numerical weather prediction and climate models. Especially over ocean, less is known about precipitation than over land due to the sparsity of in situ observations. Here, we introduce and discuss a global Expert Team on Climate Change and Indices (ETCCDI)-based precipitation climatology. The basis for computation of this climatology is the global precipitation dataset Daily Precipitation Analysis for Climate Prediction (DAPACLIP) which combines in situ observation data over land and satellite-based remote sensing data over ocean in daily temporal resolution, namely data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS) dataset. The DAPACLIP dataset spans the period 1988–2008 and thus the global ETCCDI-based precipitation climatology covers 21 years in total. Regional aspects of the climatology are also discussed with focus on Europe and the monsoon region of south-east Asia. To our knowledge, this is the first presentation and discussion of an ETCCDI-based precipitation climatology on a global scale. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa
Climate 2017, 5(1), 8; doi:10.3390/cli5010008 -
Abstract
Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates
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Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrological impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction with quantile mapping significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. The mean of six efficiency coefficients used for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed ranged from 0.69 to 0.91 and 0.84 to 0.96 before and after bias correction, respectively. The range of the standard deviations of the efficiency coefficients among the 8 GCMs rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.05–0.14 (before bias correction) to 0.01–0.03 (after bias correction). Increasing annual rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for most of the GCMs used in this study under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Social Learning and the Mitigation of Transport CO2 Emissions
Climate 2017, 5(1), 6; doi:10.3390/cli5010006 -
Abstract
Social learning, a key factor in fostering behavioural change and improving decision making, is considered necessary for achieving substantial CO2 emission reductions. However, no empirical evidence exists on how it contributes to mitigation of transport CO2 emissions, or the extent of its influence
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Social learning, a key factor in fostering behavioural change and improving decision making, is considered necessary for achieving substantial CO2 emission reductions. However, no empirical evidence exists on how it contributes to mitigation of transport CO2 emissions, or the extent of its influence on decision making. This paper presents evidence addressing these knowledge gaps. Social learning-oriented workshops were conducted to gather the views and preferences of participants from the general public in Bahrain on selected transport CO2 mitigation measures. Social preferences were inputted into a deliberative decision-making model and then compared to a previously prepared participative model. An analysis of the results revealed that social learning could contribute to changes in views, preferences and acceptance regarding mitigation measures, and these changes were statistically significant at an alpha level of 0.1. Thus, while social learning evidently plays an important role in the decision-making process, the impacts of using other participatory techniques should also be explored. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Hydroclimatic Characteristics of the 2012–2015 California Drought from an Operational Perspective
Climate 2017, 5(1), 5; doi:10.3390/cli5010005 -
Abstract
California experienced an extraordinary drought from 2012–2015 (which continues into 2016). This study, from an operational perspective, reviewed the development of this drought in a hydroclimatic framework and examined its characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales. Observed and reconstructed operational hydrologic indices
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California experienced an extraordinary drought from 2012–2015 (which continues into 2016). This study, from an operational perspective, reviewed the development of this drought in a hydroclimatic framework and examined its characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales. Observed and reconstructed operational hydrologic indices and variables widely used in water resources planning and management at statewide and (hydrologic) regional scales were employed for this purpose. Parsimonious metrics typically applied in drought assessment and management practices including the drought monitor category, percent of average, and rank were utilized to facilitate the analysis. The results indicated that the drought was characterized by record low snowpack (statewide four-year accumulated deficit: 280%-of-average), exceptionally low April-July runoff (220%-of-average deficit), and significantly below average reservoir storage (93%-of-average deficit). During the period from 2012–2015, in general, water year 2015 stood out as the driest single year; 2014–2015 was the driest two-year period; and 2013–2015 tended to be the driest three-year period. Contrary to prior studies stating that the 2012–2015 drought was unprecedented, this study illustrated that based on eight out of 28 variables, the 2012–2015 drought was not without precedent in the record period. Spatially, on average, the South Coast Region, the Central Coast Region, the Tulare Region, and the San Joaquin Region generally had the most severe drought conditions. Overall, these findings are highly meaningful for water managers in terms of making better informed adaptive management plans. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal
Climate 2017, 5(1), 4; doi:10.3390/cli5010004 -
Abstract
As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides and droughts that cause huge losses of life and property, impact the Himalayan environment, and hinder the socioeconomic development of the country. Given that the
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As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides and droughts that cause huge losses of life and property, impact the Himalayan environment, and hinder the socioeconomic development of the country. Given that the countrywide assessment of such extremes is still lacking, we present a comprehensive picture of prevailing precipitation extremes observed across Nepal. First, we present the spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) from 210 stations over the period of 1981–2010. Then, we analyze the temporal changes in the computed extremes from 76 stations, featuring long-term continuous records for the period of 1970–2012, by applying a non-parametric Mann−Kendall test to identify the existence of a trend and Sen’s slope method to calculate the true magnitude of this trend. Further, the local trends in precipitation extremes have been tested for their field significance over the distinct physio-geographical regions of Nepal, such as the lowlands, middle mountains and hills and high mountains in the west (WL, WM and WH, respectively), and likewise, in central (CL, CM and CH) and eastern (EL, EM and EH) Nepal. Our results suggest that the spatial patterns of high-intensity precipitation extremes are quite different to that of annual or monsoonal precipitation. Lowlands (Terai and Siwaliks) that feature relatively low precipitation and less wet days (rainy days) are exposed to high-intensity precipitation extremes. Our trend analysis suggests that the pre-monsoonal precipitation is significantly increasing over the lowlands and CH, while monsoonal precipitation is increasing in WM and CH and decreasing in CM, CL and EL. On the other hand, post-monsoonal precipitation is significantly decreasing across all of Nepal while winter precipitation is decreasing only over the WM region. Both high-intensity precipitation extremes and annual precipitation trends feature east−west contrast, suggesting significant increase over the WM and CH region but decrease over the EM and CM regions. Further, a significant positive trend in the number of consecutive dry days but significant negative trend in the number of wet (rainy) days are observed over the whole of Nepal, implying the prolongation of the dry spell across the country. Overall, the intensification of different precipitation indices over distinct parts of the country indicates region-specific risks of floods, landslides and droughts. The presented findings, in combination with population and environmental pressures, can support in devising the adequate region-specific adaptation strategies for different sectors and in improving the livelihood of the rural communities in Nepal. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Performance Assessment of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) Product over India
Climate 2017, 5(1), 2; doi:10.3390/cli5010002 -
Abstract
Error characterization is vital for the advancement of precipitation algorithms, the evaluation of numerical model outputs, and their integration in various hydro-meteorological applications. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) has been a benchmark for successive Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)
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Error characterization is vital for the advancement of precipitation algorithms, the evaluation of numerical model outputs, and their integration in various hydro-meteorological applications. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) has been a benchmark for successive Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) based products. This has given way to the evolution of many multi-satellite precipitation products. This study evaluates the performance of the newly released multi-satellite Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product, whose temporal variability was determined based on several data products including TMPA 3B42 RT. The evaluation was conducted over India with respect to the IMD-gauge-based rainfall for pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post monsoon seasons at daily scale for a 35-year (1979–2013) period. The rainfall climatology is examined over India and over four geographical extents within India known to be subject to uniform rainfall. The performance evaluation of rainfall time series was carried out. In addition to this, the performance of the product over different rainfall classes was evaluated along with the contribution of each class to the total rainfall. Further, seasonal evaluation of the MSWEP products was based on the categorical and volumetric indices from the contingency table. Upon evaluation it was observed that the MSWEP products show large errors in detecting the higher quantiles of rainfall (>75th and > 95th quantiles). The MSWEP precipitation product available at a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution matched well with the daily IMD rainfall over India. Overall results suggest that a suitable region and season-dependent bias correction is essential before its integration in hydrological applications. While the MSWEP was observed to perform well for daily rainfall, it suffered from poor detection capabilities for higher quantiles, making it unsuitable for the study of extremes. Full article
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Open AccessEditorial
Acknowledgement to Reviewers of Climate in 2016
Climate 2017, 5(1), 3; doi:10.3390/cli5010003 -
Abstract The editors of Climate would like to express their sincere gratitude to the following reviewers for assessing manuscripts in 2016.[...] Full article
Open AccessArticle
Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 V7 Rainfall Product over the Oum Er Rbia Watershed in Morocco
Climate 2017, 5(1), 1; doi:10.3390/cli5010001 -
Abstract
In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall
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In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall measurement sources have become available, such as TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). In this study, the TRMM 3B42 Version 7 product was evaluated using rain gauges measurements from 19 stations in the Oum-Er-Bia (OER) basin located in the center of Morocco. The relevance of the TRMM product was tested by direct comparison with observations at different time scales (daily, monthly, and annual) between 1998 and 2010. Results show that the satellite product provides poor estimations of rainfall at the daily time scale giving an average Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.2 and average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10 mm. However, the accuracy of TRMM rainfall is improved when temporally averaged to monthly time scale (r of 0.8 and RMSE of 28 mm) or annual time scale (r of 0.71 and RMSE of 157 mm). Moreover, improved correlation with observed data was obtained for data spatially averaged at the watershed scale. Therefore, at the monthly and annual time scales, TRMM data can be a useful source of rainfall data for water resources monitoring and management in ungauged basins in semi-arid regions. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Flood in a Changing Climate: The Impact on Livelihood and How the Rural Poor Cope in Bangladesh
Climate 2016, 4(4), 60; doi:10.3390/cli4040060 -
Abstract
It is already documented that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood hazards. Bangladesh is also facing an increasing trend of flood disasters. Among the various risks and disasters in Bangladesh, flood
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It is already documented that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood hazards. Bangladesh is also facing an increasing trend of flood disasters. Among the various risks and disasters in Bangladesh, flood is the most common and frequent. Floods make people vulnerable, as they take away their livelihoods at the first instance and leave them with little resources to overcome from the situation. Because of floods, rural poor communities face job loss, and two-thirds of their income is reduced, which limits their capabilities of preparedness, response, and recovery to subsequent floods. People cope with the situation by bearing substantial debts and a loss of productive assets. With an empirical field study in one of the most flood-prone upazilas (sub-districts) of Bangladesh, namely Goalanda Upazilla of the Rajbari district, this study intends to draw a “flood impact tree” of the study area. It also examines the impacts of flood on the livelihood of the rural poor and explores their coping strategies. This paper aims to facilitate an understanding of the impact of floods on their livelihood, especially on the income and occupations of the rural poor. At the same time, it aims to learn from their coping mechanisms. Full article
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Open AccessReview
Risks of Climate Change with Respect to the Singapore-Malaysia High Speed Rail System
Climate 2016, 4(4), 65; doi:10.3390/cli4040065 -
Abstract
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over the past five decades. Globally, the atmosphere and the ocean are becoming increasingly warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over the past five decades. Globally, the atmosphere and the ocean are becoming increasingly warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average increase in global temperature (combined land and surface) between the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period was 0.78 °C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such a relatively small change? The importance is not the means of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the differences in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings based on a critical literature review and expert interviews point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays in train services. During flooding, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration; high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion onto the infrastructure as well as exert an additional quasi-static burden. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Practices in Agriculture: A Case Study of Rautahat District, Nepal
Climate 2016, 4(4), 63; doi:10.3390/cli4040063 -
Abstract
This study identifies the impact of climate change and adaptation practices on agriculture in the Rautahat district of central Nepal by analyzing the atmospheric temperature, rainfall pattern, soil moisture, and direct field survey. The impact and status of crop production systems are emphasized.
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This study identifies the impact of climate change and adaptation practices on agriculture in the Rautahat district of central Nepal by analyzing the atmospheric temperature, rainfall pattern, soil moisture, and direct field survey. The impact and status of crop production systems are emphasized. Primary data on crop production system were collected through household surveys and adaptation practices in crop production were collected through focus group discussions, key informants’ interviews, and direct observations. Time series data on key climatic variables and productivity of major crops were collected from the government sources. Mann–Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s Slope methods were used for the analysis and quantification of temperature and rainfall trends. Spearman’s rank correlation analysis was performed to find the relation of seasonal rainfall with the crop yields. The study showed that the annual average rainfall was decreasing at the rate of 10.21 mm/year and the annual mean temperature had increased at a rate of 0.02 °C/year over the last 30 years, but their variations were found to be statistically insignificant. Seasonal rainfall also increased, except for the post-monsoon rain. Estimation of Soil Moisture Index through remote sensing technique indicates that it has been reduced considerably over the past 15 years at the beginning of the monsoon. It was observed that farmers have been using different adaptation measures like the use of high-yielding varieties of crops, enhanced irrigation system, switching to hybrid seed, and increased access to pesticides. As a result, the yields of major crops including rice, maize, wheat, sugarcane, potatoes, and pulses all showed increasing trends during 1999 to 2014. However, the total costs of production of all crops have increased many fold as a consequence of the cost associated with the arrangements for such adaptation measures and shifts towards market-based commodities. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Correlation between Increases of the Annual Global Solar Radiation and the Ground Albedo Solar Radiation due to Desertification—A Possible Factor Contributing to Climatic Change
Climate 2016, 4(4), 64; doi:10.3390/cli4040064 -
Abstract
Background: This study investigates the connection between annual global solar radiation and ground albedo solar radiation due to desertification in line with previous research on the correlation between climatic changes and desertification. Methods: A simulation study was performed using an algorithm formulated by
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Background: This study investigates the connection between annual global solar radiation and ground albedo solar radiation due to desertification in line with previous research on the correlation between climatic changes and desertification. Methods: A simulation study was performed using an algorithm formulated by the authors and the typical albedo coefficient values of forested ground, green grass and desert sand. Results: It is shown that changing the albedo coefficients from values corresponding to forested ground or green grass to values corresponding to the desert sand causes a significant increase in the annual global solar radiation acquired at different latitudes, leading one to hypothesize a mechanism of reduction of convective overturning and precipitation decreases due to desertification. Conclusion: In this scenario, modifications of local and global climate can be connected to changes of ground solar albedo induced by desertification. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Nitrous Oxide and Methane Fluxes from Smallholder Farms: A Scoping Study in the Anjeni Watershed
Climate 2016, 4(4), 62; doi:10.3390/cli4040062 -
Abstract
While agricultural practices are widely reported to contribute to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there are only limited measurements available for emission rates in the monsoon climate of the African continent. We conducted a scoping study to measure nitrous oxide (N2O-N)
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While agricultural practices are widely reported to contribute to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there are only limited measurements available for emission rates in the monsoon climate of the African continent. We conducted a scoping study to measure nitrous oxide (N2O-N) and methane (CH4) emission rates from 24 plots constructed on smallholder agricultural farms along the slope catena of three transects in the sub-humid Anjeni watershed in the Ethiopian highlands. Greenhouse gas flux samples were collected in 2013, before, towards the end, and after the rainy monsoon phase. At each location, three plots were installed in groups: two plots grown with barley (one enriched with charcoal and the other without soil amendment) and lupine was grown on the third plot without any soil amendment. Preliminary study results showed that nitrous oxide emission rates varied from −275 to 522 μg·m−2·h−1 and methane emissions ranged from −206 to 264 μg·m−2·h−1 with overall means of 51 and 5 μg·m−2·h−1 for N2O-N and CH4, respectively. Compared with the control, charcoal and lupine plots had elevated nitrous oxide emissions. Plots amended with charcoal showed on average greater methane uptake than was emitted. While this study provides insights regarding nitrous oxide and methane emission levels from smallholder farms, studies of longer durations are needed to verify the results. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Seasonal and Spatial Variation of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity in a Small Urban Agglomerate in Brazil
Climate 2016, 4(4), 61; doi:10.3390/cli4040061 -
Abstract
In recent years, SUHIs (surface urban heat islands) have been greatly emphasized in urban climate studies, since it is one of the climate phenomena most influenced by human action. In this study, temporal and spatial variations of SUHIs in the cities of Ceres
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In recent years, SUHIs (surface urban heat islands) have been greatly emphasized in urban climate studies, since it is one of the climate phenomena most influenced by human action. In this study, temporal and spatial variations of SUHIs in the cities of Ceres and Rialma (Brazil) were investigated; satellite Landsat 8 TIRS/OLI images from 2013 to 2016 were used for this purpose. The results showed that in all seasons, two relationships were observed, one positive and one negative. An NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) of 0.2 is the divider of this relationship: up to this value, the relationship is positive, that is, the higher the NDVI value, the higher the surface temperature, while the relationship is negative at an NDVI greater than 0.2. There was high seasonal variation in the SUHIs, with the highest intensities recorded in the spring and summer (±12 °C), and the lowest in the winter. These temporal variations were attributed to the annual cycle of precipitation, which directly involves the robustness of the Cerrado vegetation. SUHIs occupied, on average, an area three times larger than the area of SUCIs (surface urban cool islands). The highest values of SUCIs were observed in water bodies and in valley bottoms. Overall, SUHIs showed high intensities; however, a more intense core area, such as in large cities, was not observed. Full article
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Open AccessConcept Paper
Understanding Climate Adaptation Cultures in Global Context: Proposal for an Explanatory Framework
Climate 2016, 4(4), 59; doi:10.3390/cli4040059 -
Abstract
This paper aims at enhancing the previously formulated culture-theoretical explanation of risk-related perception and action with ecological and institutional connectedness. This is needed for global comparison of adaptation cultures as well as transferability of local knowledge. Differences in climate-related patterns of knowledge will
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This paper aims at enhancing the previously formulated culture-theoretical explanation of risk-related perception and action with ecological and institutional connectedness. This is needed for global comparison of adaptation cultures as well as transferability of local knowledge. Differences in climate-related patterns of knowledge will therefore be explained by common patterns of socially shared knowledge in relation to ecological and institutional transformation. This will be done by combining a cultural-knowledge approach with different social-ecological and institutional contexts. Changes in knowledge development as well as in adaptation practices will be described by state-and-transition. The proposed approach combines the culture-theoretical explanation of Values-Beliefs-Identities (VBI) and socio-ecological as well as institutional approach of the state-and-transition model. Full article
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