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Risks 2017, 5(3), 38; doi:10.3390/risks5030038

Stress Testing German Industry Sectors: Results from a Vine Copula Based Quantile Regression

1
Lehrstuhl für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany
2
Zentrum Mathematik, Technische Universität München, Boltzmanstraße 3, 85748 Garching, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Lea Petrella
Received: 14 April 2017 / Revised: 12 July 2017 / Accepted: 13 July 2017 / Published: 19 July 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantile Regression for Risk Assessment)
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Abstract

Measuring interdependence between probabilities of default (PDs) in different industry sectors of an economy plays a crucial role in financial stress testing. Thereby, regression approaches may be employed to model the impact of stressed industry sectors as covariates on other response sectors. We identify vine copula based quantile regression as an eligible tool for conducting such stress tests as this method has good robustness properties, takes into account potential nonlinearities of conditional quantile functions and ensures that no quantile crossing effects occur. We illustrate its performance by a data set of sector specific PDs for the German economy. Empirical results are provided for a rough and a fine-grained industry sector classification scheme. Amongst others, we confirm that a stressed automobile industry has a severe impact on the German economy as a whole at different quantile levels whereas, e.g., for a stressed financial sector the impact is rather moderate. Moreover, the vine copula based quantile regression approach is benchmarked against both classical linear quantile regression and expectile regression in order to illustrate its methodological effectiveness in the scenarios evaluated. View Full-Text
Keywords: stress testing; quantile regression; vine copulas; expectile regression stress testing; quantile regression; vine copulas; expectile regression
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Fischer, M.; Kraus, D.; Pfeuffer, M.; Czado, C. Stress Testing German Industry Sectors: Results from a Vine Copula Based Quantile Regression. Risks 2017, 5, 38.

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