The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis
AbstractWe investigate various scenarios for ending the San Francisco MSM (men having sex with men) HIV/AIDS epidemic (1978–1984). We use our previously developed model and explore changes due to prevention strategies such as testing, treatment and reduction of the number of contacts. Here we consider a “what-if” scenario, by comparing different treatment strategies, to determine which factor has the greatest impact on reducing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The factor determining the future of the epidemic is the reproduction number R0; if R0 < 1, the epidemic is stopped. We show that treatment significantly reduces the total number of infected people. We also investigate the effect a reduction in the number of contacts after seven years, when the HIV/AIDS threat became known, would have had in the population. Both reduction of contacts and treatment alone, however, would not have been enough to bring R0 below one; but when combined, we show that the effective R0 becomes less than one, and therefore the epidemic would have been eradicated. View Full-Text
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Rapatski, B.L.; Tolosa, J. The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis. Mathematics 2015, 3, 1083-1094.
Rapatski BL, Tolosa J. The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis. Mathematics. 2015; 3(4):1083-1094.Chicago/Turabian Style
Rapatski, Brandy L.; Tolosa, Juan. 2015. "The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis." Mathematics 3, no. 4: 1083-1094.