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Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4(4), 23; doi:10.3390/ijfs4040023

Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters

Department of Economics, King Saud University, Riyadh 11587, Saudi Arabia
Academic Editor: Nicholas Apergis
Received: 21 August 2016 / Revised: 21 October 2016 / Accepted: 24 October 2016 / Published: 4 November 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Finance)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1268 KB, uploaded 4 November 2016]   |  


This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector. View Full-Text
Keywords: oil price slump; GCC nonperforming loans; macro-financial linkages oil price slump; GCC nonperforming loans; macro-financial linkages

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Alodayni, S. Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2016, 4, 23.

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