Next Article in Journal
Inaugural Letter for the International Journal of Financial Studies (IJFS)
Previous Article in Journal
Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(1), 16-29; doi:10.3390/ijfs1010016

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

1
Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany
2
Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany
3
Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
4
Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 August 2012 / Revised: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [329 KB, uploaded 2 November 2012]   |  

Abstract

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Pierdzioch, C.; Rülke, J.C.; Stadtmann, G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 16-29.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Financial Stud. EISSN 2227-7072 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top