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House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis
Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany
Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany
Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 August 2012; in revised form: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012
Abstract: We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding
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Pierdzioch, C.; Rülke, J.C.; Stadtmann, G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 16-29.
Pierdzioch C, Rülke JC, Stadtmann G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2013; 1(1):16-29.
Pierdzioch, Christian; Rülke, Jan Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg. 2013. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis." Int. J. Financial Stud. 1, no. 1: 16-29.