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Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(1), 16-29; doi:10.3390/ijfs1010016

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

1,* , 2
1 Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany 2 Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany 3 Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany 4 Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 August 2012 / Revised: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012
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We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Pierdzioch, C.; Rülke, J.C.; Stadtmann, G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 16-29.

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