Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(1), 16-29; doi:10.3390/ijfs1010016
Article

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

1,* email, 2email and 3,4email
Received: 29 August 2012; in revised form: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract: We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.
Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding
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MDPI and ACS Style

Pierdzioch, C.; Rülke, J.C.; Stadtmann, G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 16-29.

AMA Style

Pierdzioch C, Rülke JC, Stadtmann G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2013; 1(1):16-29.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pierdzioch, Christian; Rülke, Jan Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg. 2013. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis." Int. J. Financial Stud. 1, no. 1: 16-29.

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