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• Rülke, J
• Stadtmann, G
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• Rülke, J
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Int. J. Financ. Stud. 2013, 1(1), 16-29; doi:10.3390/ijfs1010016

Article

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Christian Pierdzioch ^1,* , Jan Christoph Rülke ²  and Georg Stadtmann ^3,4

¹ Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany ² Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany ³ Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany ⁴ Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Received: 29 August 2012; in revised form: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012

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Abstract: We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding

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