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Climate 2016, 4(3), 34; doi:10.3390/cli4030034

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production

1
Graduate Research Program (GRP) Climate Change and Water Resources, West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin
2
Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Street 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
3
Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences et Techniques Agronomiques de Djougou, University of Parakou, Parakou BP 123, Benin
4
Department of Soil Science and Land Management, Federal University of Technology, P.M.B 65, Gidan-Kwanu, 920212 Minna, Nigeria
5
Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, National Water Institute, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin
6
Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Daniele Bocchiola, Guglielmina Diolaiuti and Claudio Cassardo
Received: 3 May 2016 / Revised: 7 June 2016 / Accepted: 13 June 2016 / Published: 24 June 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3853 KB, uploaded 28 June 2016]   |  

Abstract

Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydropower generation. A hydrological model was used to model runoff inflow into the largest hydroelectric dam (Kainji) in the Niger Basin (West Africa) under present and future conditions. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from a set of dynamically downscaled 8 global climate models (GCM) with two emission scenarios from the CORDEX-Africa regional downscaling experiment, driven with CMIP5 data. Observed records of the Kainji Lake were used to develop a hydroelectricity production model to simulate future energy production for the reservoir. Results indicate an increase in inflow into the reservoir and concurrent increases in hydropower production for the majority of the GCM data under the two scenarios. This analysis helps planning hydropower schemes for sustainable hydropower production. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; hydropower; Kainji Lake; uncertainties climate change; hydropower; Kainji Lake; uncertainties
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MDPI and ACS Style

Oyerinde, G.T.; Wisser, D.; Hountondji, F.C.; Odofin, A.J.; Lawin, A.E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B. Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production. Climate 2016, 4, 34.

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