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Climate 2016, 4(1), 9; doi:10.3390/cli4010009

Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

1
Hydrological Investigation Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247667, India
2
Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247667, India
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology, Allahabad 211004, India
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Christina Anagnostopoulou
Received: 20 September 2015 / Revised: 14 January 2016 / Accepted: 27 January 2016 / Published: 2 February 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Extremes: Observations and Impacts)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [929 KB, uploaded 2 February 2016]   |  

Abstract

In this study, past (1970-2005) as well as future long term (2011-2099) trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14) and precipitation (11) as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators) for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators) are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme events; warm days; warm nights; tropical nights; summer days extreme events; warm days; warm nights; tropical nights; summer days
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Singh, D.; Jain, S.K.; Gupta, R.D.; Kumar, S.; Rai, S.P.; Jain, N. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya. Climate 2016, 4, 9.

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