Next Article in Journal
An Autonomous Ultra-Wide Band-Based Attitude and Position Determination Technique for Indoor Mobile Laser Scanning
Next Article in Special Issue
Suitability Evaluation of Urban Construction Land Based on an Approach of Vertical-Horizontal Processes
Previous Article in Journal
The Implementation of Spatial Planning Objects in a 3D Cadastral Model
Previous Article in Special Issue
The Role of Social Factors in the Accessibility of Urban Areas for People with Motor Disabilities
Article Menu
Issue 4 (April) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2018, 7(4), 154; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7040154

Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Modeling of Urban Land Expansion by the Integration of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain

1
The State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2
Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417853933, Iran
3
Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason University, MSN 1E2, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
4
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Mahendra Ratna Multiple Campus Ilam, Ilam 57300, Nepal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 20 March 2018 / Revised: 10 April 2018 / Accepted: 15 April 2018 / Published: 19 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Environment Mapping Using GIS)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [4923 KB, uploaded 3 May 2018]   |  

Abstract

This study explored the past and present land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and urban expansion pattern for the cities of the Kathmandu valley and their surroundings using Landsat satellite images from 1988 to 2016. For a better analysis, LULC change information was grouped into seven time-periods (1988–1992, 1992–1996, 1996–2000, 2000–2004, 2004–2008, 2008–2013, and 2013–2016). The classification was conducted using the support vector machines (SVM) technique. A hybrid simulation model that combined the Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) was used to predict the future urban sprawl existing by 2024 and 2032. Research analysis explored the significant expansion in urban cover which was manifested at the cost of cultivated land. The urban area totaled 40.53 km2 in 1988, which increased to 144.35 km2 in 2016 with an average annual growth rate of 9.15%, an overall increase of 346.85%. Cultivated land was the most affected land-use from this expansion. A total of 91% to 98% of the expanded urban area was sourced from cultivated land alone. Future urban sprawl is likely to continue, which will be outweighed by the loss of cultivated land as in the previous decades. The urban area will be expanded to 200 km2 and 238 km2 and cultivated land will decline to 587 km2 and 555 km2 by 2024 and 2032. Currently, urban expansion is occurring towards the west and south directions; however, future urban growth is expected to rise in the southern and eastern part of the study area, dismantling the equilibrium of environmental and anthropogenic avenues. Since the study area is a cultural landscape and UNESCO heritage site, balance must be found not only in developing a city, but also in preserving the natural environment and maintaining cultural artifacts. View Full-Text
Keywords: land-use/cover; urbanization; time series; CA–Markov land-use/cover; urbanization; time series; CA–Markov
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Rimal, B.; Zhang, L.; Keshtkar, H.; Haack, B.N.; Rijal, S.; Zhang, P. Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Modeling of Urban Land Expansion by the Integration of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2018, 7, 154.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. EISSN 2220-9964 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top