Statistical Model Selection for Better Prediction and Discovering Science Mechanisms That Affect Reliability
AbstractUnderstanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidate inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. Finally, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model. View Full-Text
Scifeed alert for new publicationsNever miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
- Get alerts for new papers matching your research
- Find out the new papers from selected authors
- Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
- Define your Scifeed now
Anderson-Cook, C.M.; Morzinski, J.; Blecker, K.D. Statistical Model Selection for Better Prediction and Discovering Science Mechanisms That Affect Reliability. Systems 2015, 3, 109-132.
Anderson-Cook CM, Morzinski J, Blecker KD. Statistical Model Selection for Better Prediction and Discovering Science Mechanisms That Affect Reliability. Systems. 2015; 3(3):109-132.Chicago/Turabian Style
Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D. 2015. "Statistical Model Selection for Better Prediction and Discovering Science Mechanisms That Affect Reliability." Systems 3, no. 3: 109-132.