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Information 2015, 6(1), 69-88; doi:10.3390/info6010069

Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

1
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041, USA
3
State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Power Economy & Technology Research Institute, Shandong Province, Jinan 250002, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Gordana Dodig-Crnkovic
Received: 30 November 2014 / Revised: 12 January 2015 / Accepted: 22 January 2015 / Published: 10 March 2015
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Abstract

Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large. View Full-Text
Keywords: saturated power load; combined forecasting model; logistic curve model; multi-dimensional forecasting model; fruit fly optimization algorithm saturated power load; combined forecasting model; logistic curve model; multi-dimensional forecasting model; fruit fly optimization algorithm
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Zhao, H.; Guo, S.; Xue, W. Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model. Information 2015, 6, 69-88.

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