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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3(1), 23-51; doi:10.3390/jmse3010023

A Methodology for a Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions

1
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Bologna, Via Franceschini 31, 40128 Bologna, Italy
2
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy
3
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Valentin Heller
Received: 22 August 2014 / Accepted: 18 December 2014 / Published: 15 January 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tsunami Science and Engineering)
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Abstract

We propose a methodological approach for a comprehensive and total probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TotPTHA), in which many different possible source types concur to the definition of the total tsunami hazard at given target sites. In a multi-hazard and multi-risk perspective, the approach allows us to consider all possible tsunamigenic sources (seismic events, slides, volcanic eruptions, asteroids, etc.). In this respect, we also formally introduce and discuss the treatment of interaction/cascade effects in the TotPTHA analysis and we demonstrate how the triggering events may induce significant temporary variations in short-term analysis of the tsunami hazard. In two target sites (the city of Naples and the island of Ischia in Italy) we prove the feasibility of the TotPTHA methodology in the multi—source case considering near submarine seismic sources and submarine mass failures in the study area. The TotPTHA indicated that the tsunami hazard increases significantly by considering both the potential submarine mass failures and the submarine seismic events. Finally, the importance of the source interactions is evaluated by applying a triggering seismic event that causes relevant changes in the short-term TotPTHA. View Full-Text
Keywords: submarine seismic source; submarine mass failure; triggering event; sources interactions; long- and short-term hazard; Naples-Ischia; PTHA submarine seismic source; submarine mass failure; triggering event; sources interactions; long- and short-term hazard; Naples-Ischia; PTHA
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Anita, G.; Tonini, R.; Sandri, L.; Pierdominici, S.; Selva, J. A Methodology for a Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3, 23-51.

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