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Appl. Sci. 2018, 8(1), 28; https://doi.org/10.3390/app8010028

Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

1
State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Baoding 071003, China
2
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
3
State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 November 2017 / Revised: 21 December 2017 / Accepted: 21 December 2017 / Published: 25 December 2017

Abstract

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST) solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machines (SVM) are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar PV power forecasting; weather classification; sample scale; SVM; KNN solar PV power forecasting; weather classification; sample scale; SVM; KNN
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Wang, F.; Zhen, Z.; Wang, B.; Mi, Z. Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting. Appl. Sci. 2018, 8, 28.

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