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Geosciences 2018, 8(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8010001

Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis

1
Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0871, Japan
2
Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
3
Department of Architecture, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 October 2017 / Revised: 15 December 2017 / Accepted: 18 December 2017 / Published: 22 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Hazards and Risks Assessment)
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Abstract

After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. In addition, it has been reported that there are regions where the intensity of the vibrations owing to the aftershocks was much stronger than those associated with the main shock. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seismic risk associated with aftershocks. We used the data regarding aftershocks that was obtained from the Tohoku earthquake and various other historically large earthquakes. We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of the aftershocks using the Gutenberg–Richter law and the modified Omori law. Subsequently, we previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this study, the probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to create aftershock hazard maps. We propose a hazard map focusing on the probability of aftershocks on the scale of the main shock for use with a recovery activity plan. Following the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we focus on the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks just after a great subduction earthquake. The probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis is used to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design. This design is intended to simultaneously consider tsunamis and aftershocks for tsunami-resistant designs of tsunami evacuation buildings. View Full-Text
Keywords: probabilistic; aftershock; seismic hazard; subduction earthquake; recovery activity plan; load combination; tsunami probabilistic; aftershock; seismic hazard; subduction earthquake; recovery activity plan; load combination; tsunami
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Choi, B.; Nishida, A.; Itoi, T.; Takada, T. Engineering Applications Using Probabilistic Aftershock Hazard Analyses: Aftershock Hazard Map and Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunamis. Geosciences 2018, 8, 1.

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