Soc. Sci. 2014, 3(1), 128-139; doi:10.3390/socsci3010128
Article

Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier?

Analyst/Economist, NORD/LB Norddeutsche Landesbank, Friedrichswall 10, Hannover 30159, Germany
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 20 December 2013; in revised form: 9 January 2014 / Accepted: 14 February 2014 / Published: 21 February 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Eurozone Crisis: A Multidisciplinary Perspective)
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Abstract: As the future movements of financial time series like the European Central Bank’s benchmark rate are exposed to uncertainty, financial market participants regularly have to rely on professional analysts’ forecasts. Not surprisingly—and for decades already—the quality of survey forecasts has been evaluated, with heterogeneous results. In addition, forecasters’ performance can change through the course of time. This may happen not only due to wrong or inadequate underlying models. Especially in times of financial turmoil or monetary crisis—like the European debt crisis—the interest rate moves made by central bankers may become even harder to predict (at least the direct reaction to the crisis). Because of this, we evaluate the performance of survey forecasts for the three months rate in the Euro zone performed by financial professionals and test for structural breaks to evidence for crisis related changes and the corresponding forecast errors.
Keywords: survey forecast; short-term interest rates; ECB; monetary policy; financial crisis; forecast evaluation

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kunze, F.; Gruppe, M. Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier? Soc. Sci. 2014, 3, 128-139.

AMA Style

Kunze F, Gruppe M. Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier? Social Sciences. 2014; 3(1):128-139.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kunze, Frederik; Gruppe, Mario. 2014. "Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier?" Soc. Sci. 3, no. 1: 128-139.

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