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Water 2017, 9(8), 579; doi:10.3390/w9080579

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100

Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Department of Rural and Bio-systems Engineering, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea
Department of Rural Systems Engineering and Research Institute for Agriculture & Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
Institute of Green Bio Science Technology, Seoul National University, Pyeongchang 25354, Korea
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 April 2017 / Revised: 8 June 2017 / Accepted: 1 August 2017 / Published: 3 August 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)
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North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1981 to 2100. The probability of non-exceedance for a one-month SPEI below −1.0 was only 1.1% in the spring season of 1995 but increased to 24.4% in 2085. The SPEI for a ten-year return period varied from −0.6 to −0.9 in 1995 and decreased to −1.18 in 2025. The results indicate that severe drought is more likely to occur in future as a result of climate change. The seasonal drought conditions were also significantly influenced by climate change. The largest decrease in the SPEI occurred in late spring and early summer, both of which are important for rice growth. Drought characteristics include severity, duration, and intensity. Therefore, we applied the time series of SPIs and SPEIs to the runs theory and found that the drought intensity identified by one-month SPEIs in 1995 was at a level of 1.21, which reached 1.39 in 2085, implying that climate change will intensify drought in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; SPI; SPEI; drought intensity; North Korea climate change; SPI; SPEI; drought intensity; North Korea

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Lee, S.-H.; Yoo, S.-H.; Choi, J.-Y.; Bae, S. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100. Water 2017, 9, 579.

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