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Water 2017, 9(6), 424; doi:10.3390/w9060424

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

1
Sinotech Engineering Consultants, 14th Fl. 171, Nanking East Rd., Sec. 5, Taipei 105, Taiwan
2
Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei 10617, Taiwan
3
Department of Marine Environmental Informatics, National Taiwan Ocean University, No. 2, Beining Rd., Jhongjheng District, Keelung City 20224, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 3 February 2017 / Revised: 7 June 2017 / Accepted: 8 June 2017 / Published: 12 June 2017
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Abstract

This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157%) on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk analysis; optimization model; water supply; reservoir flood operation; hedging rules risk analysis; optimization model; water supply; reservoir flood operation; hedging rules
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Cheng, W.-M.; Huang, C.-L.; Hsu, N.-S.; Wei, C.-C. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan. Water 2017, 9, 424.

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