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Water 2017, 9(6), 391; doi:10.3390/w9060391

Flood Simulations and Uncertainty Analysis for the Pearl River Basin Using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System

1
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Gordon Huang and Yurui Fan
Received: 23 March 2017 / Revised: 24 May 2017 / Accepted: 28 May 2017 / Published: 1 June 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling of Water Systems)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3086 KB, uploaded 8 June 2017]   |  

Abstract

The performances of hydrological simulations for the Pearl River Basin in China were analysed using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System (CLHMS). Three datasets, including East Asia (EA), high-resolution gauge satellite-merged China Merged Precipitation Analysis (CMPA)-Daily, and the Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) daily precipitation were used to drive the CLHMS model to simulate daily hydrological processes from 1998 to 2006. The results indicate that the precipitation data was the most important source of uncertainty in the hydrological simulation. The simulated streamflow driven by the CMPA-Daily agreed well with observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (PMC) greater than 0.70 and an index of agreement (IOA) similarity coefficient greater than 0.82 at Liuzhou, Shijiao, and Wuzhou Stations. Comparison of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) shows that the peak flow simulation ability of CLHMS driven with the CMPA-Daily rainfall is relatively superior to that with the EA and APHRODITE datasets. The simulation results for the high-flow periods in 1998 and 2005 indicate that the CLHMS is promising for its future application in the flood simulation and prediction. View Full-Text
Keywords: coupled land surface-hydrology model; flood simulation; uncertainty analysis; Pearl River Basin coupled land surface-hydrology model; flood simulation; uncertainty analysis; Pearl River Basin
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Zhu, Y.; Lin, Z.; Zhao, Y.; Li, H.; He, F.; Zhai, J.; Wang, L.; Wang, Q. Flood Simulations and Uncertainty Analysis for the Pearl River Basin Using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System. Water 2017, 9, 391.

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