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Water 2017, 9(2), 103; doi:10.3390/w9020103

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

1
Water Academy, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot‐Watt University, Edinburgh Campus, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK
2
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, MacLean Bldg, Benson Ln, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 23 December 2016 / Accepted: 3 February 2017 / Published: 9 February 2017
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Abstract

Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk, causing over £1 billion of damage per year in the UK as a result of recent events. Climatic projections predict an increase in flood risk; it becomes urgent to assess climate change impact on extreme flows, and evaluate uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period across Great Britain as a result of climate change using the Future Flows Hydrology database. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalised Pareto (GP) models are automatically fitted for 11‐member ensemble flow series available for the baseline and the 2080s. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) and climate model parameters. Results suggest that GP and GEV give similar runoff estimates and uncertainties. From the baseline to the 2080s, increasing estimate and uncertainties is evident in east England. With the GEV the uncertainty attributed to the climate model parameters is greater than for the GP (around 60% and 40% of the total uncertainty, respectively). This shows that when fitting both EV models, the uncertainty related to their parameters has to be accounted for to assess extreme runoffs. View Full-Text
Keywords: future  flow  hydrology;  generalised  extreme  value;  generalised  Pareto;  cascaded  uncertainty; perturbed physics model ensemble future  flow  hydrology;  generalised  extreme  value;  generalised  Pareto;  cascaded  uncertainty; perturbed physics model ensemble
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Collet, L.; Beevers, L.; Prudhomme, C. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain. Water 2017, 9, 103.

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