Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain
AbstractFloods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk, causing over £1 billion of damage per year in the UK as a result of recent events. Climatic projections predict an increase in flood risk; it becomes urgent to assess climate change impact on extreme flows, and evaluate uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period across Great Britain as a result of climate change using the Future Flows Hydrology database. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalised Pareto (GP) models are automatically fitted for 11‐member ensemble flow series available for the baseline and the 2080s. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) and climate model parameters. Results suggest that GP and GEV give similar runoff estimates and uncertainties. From the baseline to the 2080s, increasing estimate and uncertainties is evident in east England. With the GEV the uncertainty attributed to the climate model parameters is greater than for the GP (around 60% and 40% of the total uncertainty, respectively). This shows that when fitting both EV models, the uncertainty related to their parameters has to be accounted for to assess extreme runoffs. View Full-Text
Scifeed alert for new publicationsNever miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
- Get alerts for new papers matching your research
- Find out the new papers from selected authors
- Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
- Define your Scifeed now
Collet, L.; Beevers, L.; Prudhomme, C. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain. Water 2017, 9, 103.
Collet L, Beevers L, Prudhomme C. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain. Water. 2017; 9(2):103.Chicago/Turabian Style
Collet, Lila; Beevers, Lindsay; Prudhomme, Christel. 2017. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain." Water 9, no. 2: 103.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.