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Water 2016, 8(7), 279; doi:10.3390/w8070279

Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

Department of Civil Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849-5337, USA
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Richard Skeffington and Marco Franchini
Received: 9 May 2016 / Revised: 21 June 2016 / Accepted: 29 June 2016 / Published: 7 July 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Effects on Freshwater Organisms and Ecosystems)
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Abstract

Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T) and available dissolved oxygen (DO) that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008) and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate. View Full-Text
Keywords: cisco (Corgenous artedi); fish habitat; lakes; Minnesota; simulations; water quality; water temperature; dissolved oxygen; climate change; fish kill cisco (Corgenous artedi); fish habitat; lakes; Minnesota; simulations; water quality; water temperature; dissolved oxygen; climate change; fish kill
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Jiang, L.; Fang, X. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits. Water 2016, 8, 279.

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