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Water 2016, 8(3), 81; doi:10.3390/w8030081

Estimating the Risk of River Flow under Climate Change in the Tsengwen River Basin

1
National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan
2
Department of Civil Engineering in National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan
3
National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Yingkui Li
Received: 26 November 2015 / Revised: 23 February 2016 / Accepted: 24 February 2016 / Published: 3 March 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resource Variability and Climate Change)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2966 KB, uploaded 3 March 2016]   |  

Abstract

This study evaluated the overflow risk of the Tsengwen River under a climate change scenario by using bias-corrected dynamic downscaled data as inputs for a SOBEK model (Deltares, the Netherlands). The results showed that the simulated river flow rate at Yufeng Bridge (upstream), Erxi Bridge (midstream), and XinZong (1) (downstream) stations are at risk of exceeding the management plan’s flow rate for three projection periods (1979–2003, 2015–2039, 2075–2099). After validation with the geomorphic and hydrological data collected in this study, the frequency at which the flow rate exceeded the design flood was 2 in 88 events in the base period (1979–2003), 6 in 82 events in the near future (2015–2039), and 10 in 81 events at the end of the century (2075–2099). View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme typhoon events; risk analysis; SOBEK; climate change; hydrological extreme extreme typhoon events; risk analysis; SOBEK; climate change; hydrological extreme
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Wei, H.-P.; Yeh, K.-C.; Liou, J.-J.; Chen, Y.-M.; Cheng, C.-T. Estimating the Risk of River Flow under Climate Change in the Tsengwen River Basin. Water 2016, 8, 81.

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