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Water 2015, 7(6), 2753-2770; doi:10.3390/w7062753

Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31, Potsdam 14473, Germany
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Academic Editor: Athanasios Loukas
Received: 22 April 2015 / Revised: 21 May 2015 / Accepted: 22 May 2015 / Published: 9 June 2015
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Abstract

This study aims to assess the potential alterations in the hydrological regime attributed to projected climate change in one of the largest rivers in the Carpathian Area, the Mures River, and to estimate associated threats to riverine ecosystem. The eco-hydrological model, Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), was applied on the Mures River basin, calibrated and validated against records at a gauging station in Alba-Julia town. A set of nine future projections for climatic parameters under one emissions scenario A1B over the period 1971–2100 were fed into the SWIM model. To provide functional link between hydrological regimes and riverine ecosystems, each of the nine simulated discharge time series were introduced into the IHA (Indicators of Hydrological Alterations) tool. Triggered changes in hydrological patterns of the Mures River were assessed at the basin and sub-basin scales. The obtained results present a strong agreement through all nine climate projections; suggesting an increase in the discharge of Mures River for the winter season; a decrease in summer and prolongation of the low flow periods by the end of the century. Anticipated changes would pose threats to aquatic ecosystems; altering normal life-cycles; and depleting natural habitats of species. View Full-Text
Keywords: SWIM; hydrological modeling; ensembles of climate projections; Mures River; climate change; indicators of hydrological alteration SWIM; hydrological modeling; ensembles of climate projections; Mures River; climate change; indicators of hydrological alteration
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Lobanova, A.; Stagl, J.; Vetter, T.; Hattermann, F. Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century. Water 2015, 7, 2753-2770.

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