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Water 2015, 7(2), 716-746; doi:10.3390/w7020716

Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Post Box 601203, Potsdam 14412, Germany
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Lutz Breuer
Received: 17 December 2014 / Accepted: 2 February 2015 / Published: 12 February 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Ecological Modeling)
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Abstract

Climate change is supposed to remarkably affect the water resources of coastal lagoons as they are highly vulnerable to changes occurring at their catchment and/or ocean or sea boundaries. Probable impacts of projected climate changes on catchment hydrology and freshwater input were assessed using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine) and Vistula Lagoon (Poland/Russia) under a set of 15 climate scenarios covering the time period until the year 2100. Climate change signals for all regions show continuously increasing trends in temperature, but various trends in precipitation. Precipitation is projected to decrease in two catchments on the Iberian Peninsula and increase in the Baltic region catchment, and does not show a clear trend in the catchment located near the Black Sea. The average projected changes in freshwater inputs reflect these changes in climate conditions, but often show variability between the scenarios, in future periods, and within the catchments. According to the individual degrees of water management influences in the four drainage basins, the climate sensitivity of river inflows is differently pronounced in each. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change impact assessment; ENSEMBLES; European lagoons; SWIM; freshwater input; climate sensitivity climate change impact assessment; ENSEMBLES; European lagoons; SWIM; freshwater input; climate sensitivity
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Hesse, C.; Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V. Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios. Water 2015, 7, 716-746.

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