Next Article in Journal
Threshold Based Footprints (for Water)
Previous Article in Journal
Distribution-Based Calibration of a Stormwater Quality Model
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Water 2018, 10(8), 1028; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081028

Understanding the Main Causes of Runoff Change by Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Luanhe River Basin, North China

1
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2
College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Water Resource Protection and Utilization Key Laboratory, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
3
Tianjin Zhongshui Science and Technology Consulting Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300170, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 15 June 2018 / Revised: 25 July 2018 / Accepted: 30 July 2018 / Published: 3 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Land Cover Change)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2545 KB, uploaded 3 August 2018]   |  

Abstract

In the traditional point of view, if there is a significant decreasing trend for a runoff time series, while no significant trend for a precipitation series is present, then an unreliable conclusion will be made that the land surface change is the main contributor to the runoff change. To test it, we selected four sub-watersheds in the Luanhe river basin as the study areas where land use has changed severely. We first detected the long-term rainfall and runoff trend by the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, and the moving average method, and found that the runoff had a decreasing trend at the 0.05 significance level, while the rainfall had no significant trend in all sub-watersheds. Then an orderly cluster analysis and moving T test method were used to detect the change point of the runoff series. We quantified the contributions of the land surface change and climate variability based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the contribution of climate variability accounted for more than 50%, which implies that climate change is the main factor of runoff decrease in the study areas. To further test this, a trend analysis of a reconstructed annual runoff time series under undisturbed conditions has been done. The results showed that in some sub-watersheds, although rainfall series had no significant decreasing trend, the runoff series had significant downward trend. This can be explained by the nonlinear relationship between rainfall and runoff. This study came to a different conclusion from the common view, which observes that runoff decrease is mainly caused by land surface change if rainfall series lacks a significantly decreasing trend. View Full-Text
Keywords: runoff change; SWAT model; climate change; land surface use runoff change; SWAT model; climate change; land surface use
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, T.; Wang, Y.; Wang, B.; Feng, P. Understanding the Main Causes of Runoff Change by Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Luanhe River Basin, North China. Water 2018, 10, 1028.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top