Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model
AbstractA reliability approach referred to as the point estimate method (PEM) is presented to assess the uncertainty of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. PEM is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, which evaluates the statistical moments of a performance function involving random variables. When applied to hydraulic problems, the variables are the inputs to the hydraulic model, and the first and second statistical moments refer to the mean and standard deviation of the model’s output. In providing approximate estimates of the uncertainty, PEM appears considerably simpler and requires less information and fewer runs than standard Monte Carlo methods. An example of uncertainty assessment is shown for simulated water depths in a 46 km reach of the Richelieu River, Canada. The 2D hydraulic model, H2D2, was used to solve the shallow water equations. Standard deviations around the mean water depths were estimated by considering the uncertainties of three main input variables: flow rate, Manning’s coefficient and topography. Results indicate that the mean standard deviation is <27 cm for the considered flow rates of 759, 824, 936, 1113
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Oubennaceur, K.; Chokmani, K.; Nastev, M.; Tanguy, M.; Raymond, S. Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model. Water 2018, 10, 272.
Oubennaceur K, Chokmani K, Nastev M, Tanguy M, Raymond S. Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model. Water. 2018; 10(3):272.Chicago/Turabian Style
Oubennaceur, Khalid; Chokmani, Karem; Nastev, Miroslav; Tanguy, Marion; Raymond, Sebastien. 2018. "Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model." Water 10, no. 3: 272.
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