Next Article in Journal
Influence of Wave State and Sea Spray on the Roughness Length: Feedback on Medicanes
Next Article in Special Issue
Post-Monsoon Season Precipitation Reduction over South Asia: Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Irrigation
Previous Article in Journal
The Effect of Nonlocal Vehicle Restriction Policy on Air Quality in Shanghai
Previous Article in Special Issue
Role of Indochina Peninsula Topography in Precipitation Seasonality over East Asia
Article Menu
Issue 8 (August) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Atmosphere 2018, 9(8), 300; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080300

Prediction Skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on APCC Multi-Models

Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan 48058, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 May 2018 / Revised: 30 July 2018 / Accepted: 30 July 2018 / Published: 31 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Monsoons)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [10196 KB, uploaded 31 July 2018]   |  

Abstract

The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has been analyzed, using the observations and different climate models that participate in the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast. The authors first examined the characteristics of the existing EAWM indices to find a suitable index for the APCC seasonal forecast system. This examination revealed that the selected index shows reasonable prediction skill of EAWM intensity and well-represents the characteristics of wintertime temperature anomalies associated with the EAWM, especially for the extreme cold winters. Although most models capture the main characteristics of the seasonal mean circulation over East Asia reasonably well, they still suffer from difficulty in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of the EAWM. Fortunately, the POAMA has reasonable skill in capturing the timing and strength of the EAWM IAV and reproduces the EAWM-related circulation anomalies well. The better performance of the POAMA may be attributed to the better skill in simulating the high-latitude forcing including the Siberian High (SH) and Artic Oscillation (AO) and the strong links of the ENSO to the EAWM, compared to other models. View Full-Text
Keywords: East Asian Winter Monsoon; prediction skill; seasonal forecast; winter temperature East Asian Winter Monsoon; prediction skill; seasonal forecast; winter temperature
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Shin, S.-H.; Moon, J.-Y. Prediction Skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on APCC Multi-Models. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 300.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Atmosphere EISSN 2073-4433 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top