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Atmosphere 2017, 8(5), 93; doi:10.3390/atmos8050093

Future Changes in Global Precipitation Projected by the Atmospheric Model MRI-AGCM3.2H with a 60-km Size

Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Academic Editor: Anthony Lupo
Received: 10 March 2017 / Revised: 15 May 2017 / Accepted: 17 May 2017 / Published: 21 May 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Precipitation with Climate Change)
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We conducted global warming projections using the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model Version 3.2 with a 60-km grid size (MRI-AGCM3.2H). For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 through 2003, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperature (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079–2099, the model was forced with future SST projected by conventional couple models. Twelve-member ensemble simulations for three different cumulus convection schemes and four different SST distributions were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. Annual average precipitation will increase over the equatorial regions and decrease over the subtropical regions. The future precipitation changes are generally sensitive to the cumulus convection scheme, but changes are influenced by the SST over the some regions of the Pacific Ocean. The precipitation efficiency defined as precipitation change per 1° surface air temperature warming is evaluated. The global average of precipitation efficiency for annual average precipitation was less than the maximum value expected by thermodynamical theory, indicating that dynamical atmospheric circulation is acting to reduce the conversion efficiency from water vapor to precipitation. The precipitation efficiency by heavy precipitation is larger than that by moderate and weak precipitation. View Full-Text
Keywords: precipitation; global warming projection; uncertainty of projection; precipitation efficiency precipitation; global warming projection; uncertainty of projection; precipitation efficiency

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Kusunoki, S. Future Changes in Global Precipitation Projected by the Atmospheric Model MRI-AGCM3.2H with a 60-km Size. Atmosphere 2017, 8, 93.

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