Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season
AbstractIn recent years, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model has been utilized to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, factors including horizontal resolution, domain size, and the physical parameterization scheme have a strong impact on the dynamic downscaling ability of the WRF model. In this study, the influence of these factors has been analyzed in precipitation forecasting for the Xijiang Basin, southern China—a region with complex topography. The results indicate that higher horizontal resolutions always result in higher Critical Success Indexes (CSI), but higher biases as well. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast skills are also influenced by the combination of microphysics parameterization scheme and cumulus convective parameterization scheme. On the basis of these results, an optimized configuration of the WRF model is built in which the horizontal resolution is 10 km, the microphysics parameterization is the Lin scheme, and the cumulus convective parameterization is the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme. This configuration is then evaluated by simulating the daily weather during the 2013–2014 flood season. The high Critical Success Index scores and low biases at various thresholds and lead times confirm the high accuracy of the optimized WRF model configuration for Xijiang Basin. However, the performance of the WRF model varies from different sub-basins due to the complexity of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) over this region. View Full-Text
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Li, Y.; Lu, G.; Wu, Z.; He, H.; Shi, J.; Ma, Y.; Weng, S. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season. Atmosphere 2016, 7, 145.
Li Y, Lu G, Wu Z, He H, Shi J, Ma Y, Weng S. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season. Atmosphere. 2016; 7(11):145.Chicago/Turabian Style
Li, Yuan; Lu, Guihua; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Hai; Shi, Jun; Ma, Yuexiong; Weng, Shichuang. 2016. "Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season." Atmosphere 7, no. 11: 145.
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