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Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
Received: 13 December 2011; in revised form: 5 January 2012 / Accepted: 11 January 2012 / Published: 31 January 2012
Abstract: A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Keywords: typhoon; tropical cyclone; intensity; climate change
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MDPI and ACS Style
Durden, S.L. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure. Atmosphere 2012, 3, 124-131.
Durden SL. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure. Atmosphere. 2012; 3(1):124-131.
Durden, Stephen L. 2012. "Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure." Atmosphere 3, no. 1: 124-131.