Next Article in Journal
Food Image Recognition via Superpixel Based Low-Level and Mid-Level Distance Coding for Smart Home Applications
Previous Article in Journal
Sustainable Environmental Management Indicators in South African Primary Schools
Previous Article in Special Issue
Comparison of Organic and Integrated Nutrient Management Strategies for Reducing Soil N2O Emissions
Article Menu
Issue 5 (May) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2017, 9(5), 851; doi:10.3390/su9050851

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

1
State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2
School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 1000871, China
3
BICIC, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 1000875, China
This paper was presented at the Global Land Programme 3rd Open Science Meeting, Beijing, China, 24–27 October 2016.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Elaine Wheaton and Suren N. Kulshreshtha
Received: 22 February 2017 / Revised: 3 May 2017 / Accepted: 12 May 2017 / Published: 19 May 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agricultural and Climate Change)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2697 KB, uploaded 19 May 2017]   |  

Abstract

To improve adaptive capacity and further strengthen the role of irrigation in mitigating climate change impacts, the Chinese government has planned to expand irrigated areas by 4.4% by the 2030s. Examining the adaptive potential of irrigated area expansion under climate change is therefore critical. Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980–2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s. Based on regression analysis, there is a statistically significant effect of irrigated area expansion on reducing negative climate impacts. More irrigated areas indicate less heat and drought impacts. Irrigated area expansion will alleviate yield reduction by 0.7–0.8% in the future but associated yield benefits will still not compensate for greater adverse climate impacts. Yields are estimated to decrease by 4.0–6.5% under future climate conditions when an additional 4.4% of irrigated area is established, and no fundamental yield increase with an even further 10% or 15% expansion of irrigated area is predicted. This finding suggests that expected adverse climate change risks in the 2030s cannot be mitigated by expanding irrigated areas. A combination of this and other adaptation programs is needed to guarantee grain production under more serious drought stresses in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: irrigated area; drought; climate; adaptation; SPEI irrigated area; drought; climate; adaptation; SPEI
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, T.; Wang, J.; Teng, Y. Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China. Sustainability 2017, 9, 851.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top