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Sustainability 2017, 9(5), 817; doi:10.3390/su9050817

Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

Department of Electrical Engineering, Sangmyung University, Seoul 03016, Korea
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Academic Editor: João P. S. Catalão
Received: 10 April 2017 / Revised: 11 May 2017 / Accepted: 11 May 2017 / Published: 14 May 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind Energy, Load and Price Forecasting towards Sustainability)
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Abstract

Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the potential sites of wind farms, wind speed data at points of interest are not always available. We apply the Kriging method, which is one of spatial interpolation, to estimate wind speed at potential sites. We also consider a wind profile power law to correct wind speed along the turbine height and terrain characteristics. After that, we used estimated wind speed data to calculate wind power output and select the best wind farm sites using a Weibull distribution. Probability density function (PDF) or cumulative density function (CDF) is used to estimate the probability of wind speed. The wind speed data is classified along the manufacturer’s power curve data. Therefore, the probability of wind speed is also given in accordance with classified values. The average wind power output is estimated in the form of a confidence interval. The empirical data of meteorological towers from Jeju Island in Korea is used to interpolate the wind speed data spatially at potential sites. Finally, we propose the best wind farm site among the four potential wind farm sites. View Full-Text
Keywords: wind generating resources; ensemble model; stochastic prediction wind generating resources; ensemble model; stochastic prediction
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Kim, D.; Hur, J. Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea. Sustainability 2017, 9, 817.

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