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Sustainability 2017, 9(12), 2268; doi:10.3390/su9122268

Dynamic Trends of Carbon Intensities among 127 Countries

1
Gachon Center for Convergence Research, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnam-daero, Sujung-gu, Gyeonggi-do 13120, Korea
2
Department of Global Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnam-daero, Sujung-gu, Gyeonggi-do 13120, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 10 November 2017 / Revised: 5 December 2017 / Accepted: 5 December 2017 / Published: 7 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Sustainability)
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Abstract

Many countries in the world have been experiencing widely varying rates of change in their carbon intensity (CI) of economic output. The dynamic trend of CI in this research is measured by the progress ratio (PR) from an experience curve (EC) involving 127 countries during the period of 1980–2011. The overall average PR of 88.8% estimated for the total group of 127 indicates a decreasing trend of carbon intensity. This means that each doubling of the cumulative CO2 emission by this group has reduced carbon intensity by 11.2%. While a majority of 83 countries experienced a decreasing trend with an average PR of 73.1%, the remaining 44 countries have experienced an increasing trend with an average PR of 114.5%. When two different types of EC, classical and kinked, were applied, 73 countries displayed a kinked slope with an average PR of 73.4%, and 54 countries displayed a classical slope with an average PR of 104.2%. Examination of the type of trend and slope of EC suggests the chance of a major improvement of the future CI in the following order: (1) the 35 countries with a classical slope and an increasing trend of CIs; (2) the nine countries with a kinked slope and an increasing trend of CIs; (3) the 19 countries with a classical slope and a decreasing trend of CIs; and (4) the 64 countries with a kinked slope and a decreasing trend of CIs. Further implications from these findings are discussed. View Full-Text
Keywords: carbon intensity of economic output; CO2 emissions; progress ratio; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve carbon intensity of economic output; CO2 emissions; progress ratio; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Chang, Y.S.; Choi, D.; Kim, H.E. Dynamic Trends of Carbon Intensities among 127 Countries. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2268.

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