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Sustainability 2017, 9(1), 41; doi:10.3390/su9010041

Extreme Weather Impacts on Maize Yield: The Case of Shanxi Province in China

1
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO), P.O. Box 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
2
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3
Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
This paper was presented at the Conference of Agriculture and Climate Change in Transition Economies IAMO Forum 2015, Halle (Saale), Germany, 17–19 June 2015 and at the Global Land Programme 3rd Open Science Meeting, Beijing, China, 24–27 October 2016.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Adrian Muller
Received: 6 October 2016 / Revised: 15 December 2016 / Accepted: 19 December 2016 / Published: 28 December 2016
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Agriculture, Food and Wildlife)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [935 KB, uploaded 28 December 2016]   |  

Abstract

Extreme weather can have negative impacts on crop production. In this study, we statistically estimate the impacts of dry days, heat waves, and cold days on maize yield based on household survey data from 1993 to 2011 in ten villages of Shanxi province, China. Our results show that dry days, heat waves, and cold days have negative effects on maize yield, although these effects are marginal if these extreme events do not increase dramatically. Specifically, a one percent increase in extreme-heat-degree-days and consecutive-dry-days results in a maize yield declines of 0.2% and 0.07%, respectively. Maize yield also is reduced by 0.3% for cold days occurring during the growing season from May to September. However, these extreme events can increase dramatically in a warmer world and result in considerable reduction in maize yields. If all the historical temperatures in the villages are shifted up by 2 degrees Celsius, total impacts of these extreme events would lead to a reduction of maize yield by over 30 percent. The impacts may be underestimated since we did not exclude the offset effect of adaptation measures adopted by farmers to combat these extreme events. View Full-Text
Keywords: agriculture; climate change; consecutive dry days; heat waves; degree days; food security agriculture; climate change; consecutive dry days; heat waves; degree days; food security
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Wei, T.; Zhang, T.; de Bruin, K.; Glomrød, S.; Shi, Q. Extreme Weather Impacts on Maize Yield: The Case of Shanxi Province in China. Sustainability 2017, 9, 41.

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