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Sustainability 2016, 8(7), 642; doi:10.3390/su8070642

How Much CO2 Emissions Can Be Reduced in China’s Heating Industry

1
College of Energy, School of Energy Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
2
Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Bing Wang, Ning Zhang and Marc A. Rosen
Received: 9 March 2016 / Revised: 14 June 2016 / Accepted: 4 July 2016 / Published: 8 July 2016
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Abstract

China’s heating industry is a coal-fired industry with serious environmental issues. CO2 emissions from the heating industry accounted for an average 6.1% of China’s carbon emissions during 1985–2010. The potential for reducing emissions in China’s heating industry is evaluated by co-integration analysis and scenario analysis. The results demonstrate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among CO2 emissions and the influencing factors, including energy intensity, industrial scale, labor productivity, and energy productivity. Monte Carlo technique is adopted for risk analysis. It is found that the CO2 emissions reduction potential of the heating industry will be 26.7 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2020 and 64.8 Mtce in 2025 under the moderate scenario, compared with 50.6 Mtce in 2020 and 122.1 Mtce in 2025 under the advanced scenario. Policy suggestions are provided accordingly. View Full-Text
Keywords: CO2 emissions; China’s heating industry; co-integration; scenario analysis; Monte Carlo Simulation CO2 emissions; China’s heating industry; co-integration; scenario analysis; Monte Carlo Simulation
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Lin, J.; Lin, B. How Much CO2 Emissions Can Be Reduced in China’s Heating Industry. Sustainability 2016, 8, 642.

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